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Europe > Latvia, Republic of

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 23 items for :

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Euro Area Policies: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper highlights quantitative tightening (QT) by the European Central Bank (ECB). It uses evidence from the literature on the impact of central bank bond purchases and sales on bond yields, and the monetary policy stance, to outline a roadmap for reducing the Euro system’s bond holdings. The current tightening cycle provides an opportunity to revisit the ECB’s balance sheet policy. With inflation running above target, the monetary accommodation provided by the ECB’s bond holding is no longer necessary. The current tightening cycle provides an opportunity to revisit the ECB’s balance sheet policy. With inflation running above target, the monetary accommodation provided by the ECB’s bond holding is no longer necessary. The paper concludes that the ECB’s short term policy rates should be the main choice for adapting the monetary policy stance to changing circumstances and QT should proceed in a gradual, predictable manner as outlined by the ECB.
Keywords:
ECB Policy rate; ECB balance sheet; app portfolio; C. Policy consideration; bond supply net of ECB; Financial statements; Unconventional monetary policies; Central bank policy rate; Monetary stance; Securities
Cover IMF Working Papers
Banks’ Adjustment to Basel III Reform: A Bank-Level Perspective for Emerging Europe
Michal Andrle
,
Vladimír Tomšík
, and
Mr. Jan Vlcek
The paper seeks to identify strategies of commercial banks in response to higher capital requirements of Basel III reform and its phase-in. It focuses on a sample of nine EU emerging market countries and picks up 5 largest banks in each country assessing their response. The paper finds that all banking sectors raised CAR ratios mainly through retained earnings. In countries where the banking sector struggled with profitability, banks have resorted to issuance of new equity or shrunk the size of their balance sheets to meet the higher capital-adequacy requirements. Worries echoed at the early stage of Basel III compilation, namely that commercial banks would shrink their balance sheet by reducing their lending to meet stricter capital requirements, did materialize only in banks struggling with profitability.
Keywords:
WP; bank; net income; balance sheet; asset; capital adequacy; Basel III; banking sector assets; cost of capital; capital adequacy ratio dynamics; increase in capital capital ratio; balance sheet growth; CAR decomposition; Income; Capital adequacy requirements; Commercial banks; Financial statements; Stocks; Europe; Baltics; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Balance Sheet Analysis in Fund Surveillance
International Monetary Fund
Balance sheets convey vital information about economic prospects and risks. Balance sheet analysis captures the role that financial frictions and mismatches play in creating fragility and amplifying shocks. This is key to understanding the macroeconomic outlook, identifying vulnerabilities, and tracing the transmission of potential shocks and policies. This paper reviews the use of balance sheet analysis in the Fund’s bilateral surveillance and introduces some practical examples of how it can be deepened. Recent evaluations of IMF surveillance––including the 2014 TSR––have emphasized the importance of strengthening balance sheet analysis and coverage of macro-financial issues. This paper is a first step that highlights useful examples of such analysis conducted by staff over the last decade, documents the data and tools that have been used, and mentions some limitations. In addition, it discusses recent improvements in the coverage and quality of balance sheet data through initiatives launched in the wake of the global crisis, as well as key remaining gaps, addressing which requires international collaboration.
Keywords:
PP; economy; asset; balance sheet; market; balance-sheet analysis; private sector; BSA matrix; sovereign bond; banking system; central bank; exchange rate; foreign exchange; interest rate; economic activity; mutual fund; credit risk; Financial statements; Balance sheet analysis; Financial sector; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Foreign currency exposure; Global; balance sheet data; B. addressing data gap; balance sheet analysis in fund surveillance; IMF surveillance; Sta team; balance sheets; Currencies
Cover IMF Working Papers
Conventional and Insidious Macroeconomic Balance-Sheet Crises
Mr. Bas B. Bakker
and
Mr. Leslie Lipschitz
This paper describes the anatomy of two types of balance-sheet macroeconomic crises. Conventional balance-sheet crises are triggered by external imbalances and balance sheet vulnerabilities. They typically occur after capital inflows have led to a substantial build up of foreign currency exposure. Insidious crises are triggered by internal imbalances and balance sheet vulnerabilities. They occur in high-growth economies when an initially equilibrating shift in relative prices and resources and credit in favor of the nontraded sector overshoots equilibrium. The paper argues that policymakers are now better able to forestall conventional crises, but they are much less capable of early detection and avoidance of insidious crises.
Keywords:
WP; asset; price; current account; deficit; exchange rate; interest rate; crises; balance sheets; business cycles; capital flows; construction boom; emerging market economy; foreign exchange; FX assets; capital account; Capital inflows; Financial statements; Return on investment; Current account deficits; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Latvia: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Latvia entered the euro area in January 2014 with the fastest rate of growth in Europe. The 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that a slowdown in investment and exports was partly compensated by robust consumption demand, supported by rising real wages, bringing GDP growth in 2013 to 4.1 percent. Strong job creation reduced the unemployment rate to 11.3 percent by end-2013, close to its structural level. Consumer price inflation fell to an average of about zero in 2013, mainly owing to weakening energy prices. The 2013 general government deficit outturn of 1.0 percent of GDP was below the target of 1.4 percent.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; euro; Latvia; structural unemployment; balance of payments; deficit; GDP; requirement; non-resident deposits; sovereign bond bond issue; NRD banks' capital adequacy ratio; financial asset; consumer price inflation; Labor markets; Credit; Real wages; Baltics; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sovereign CDS Spreads in Europe: The Role of Global Risk Aversion, Economic Fundamentals, Liquidity, and Spillovers
Mr. Frigyes F Heinz
and
Ms. Yan M Sun
By analysing data from January 2007 to December 2012 in a panel GLS error correction framework we find that European countries’ sovereign CDS spreads are largely driven by global investor sentiment, macroeconomic fundamentals and liquidity conditions in the CDS market. But the relative importance of these factors changes over time. While during the 2008/09 crisis weak economic fundamentals (such as high current account decifit, worsening underlying fiscal balances, credit boom), a drop in liquidity and a spike in risk aversion contributed to high spreads in Central and Eastern and South-Eastern European (CESEE) countries, a marked improvement in fundamentals (e.g. reduction in fiscal deficit, narrowing of current balances, gradual economic recovery) explains the region’s resilience to financial market spillovers during the euro area crisis. Our generalised variance decomposition analyisis does not suggest strong direct spillovers from the euro area periphery. The significant drop in the CDS spreads between July 2012 and December 2012 was mainly driven by a decline in risk aversion as suggested by the model’s out of sample forecasts.
Keywords:
WP; CDS spread; financial market; area crisis; real GDP; CESEE countries; financial spillovers; CDS spreads; CESEE country; sovereign CDS; area CDS; norm decomposition; periphery country; CDS bid; CDS market liquidity condition; Credit default swap; Government debt management; Spillovers; Liquidity; Current account balance; Global; Baltics
Cover Policy Papers
2011 Review of Conditionality - Content and Application of Conditionality
International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews the design of conditionality in Fund-supported programs from 2002 to end-September 2011, with an emphasis on recent years. It focuses on the content and application of program conditionality—especially structural conditionality—in relation to the 2002 Conditionality Guidelines (the "Guidelines"), the Staff Statement on Principles Underlying the Guidelines on Conditionality, and subsequent revisions to operational guidance on conditionality. The analysis is based on the five key interrelated principles guiding the design of conditionality: national ownership of programs, parsimony in program-related conditions, tailoring to country circumstances, effective coordination with other multilateral institutions, and clarity in the specification of conditions. In particular, the principle of parsimony requires that program-related conditions be critical (or the minimum necessary) to achieve program objectives and goals, critical for monitoring program implementation, or necessary for implementing specific provisions under the Articles of Agreement (the "criticality criterion"). Beyond assessing compliance with these guidelines and principles, the paper also examines the implementation of conditionality
Keywords:
PP; PRGT program; country authorities; Fund staff; Fund-supported program; Fund condition; program Conditionality; program design; program objective; Fund conditionality; core area; program interruption; program approval; Gra program; Structural reforms; Public expenditure review; Government debt management; Financial sector; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Latvia: Fourth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Financing Assurances Review, Request for Rephasing of Purchases Under the Arrangement and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion
International Monetary Fund
Strong policy implementation under the Stand By-Arrangement (SBA) has contributed to Latvia’s economic recovery and put attainment of Maastricht criteria for euro adoption within reach. The government has continued to achieve substantial fiscal savings and strengthened its active labor market policy. Executive Directors stressed the need to implement plans for reforming state-owned banks and to promote market-based debt restructuring. Directors advised to maintain strong budget implementation in 2011 and focus on reducing taxes in the 2012 budget. They encouraged to enhance efficiency of state-owned enterprises to keep inflation under control.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; request for waiver of nonobservance; request; request for Rephasing; waiver; state; IMF's support; request for Rephasing of purchase; authorities' strategy; Inflation; PFM legal and regulatory frameworks; Budget planning and preparation; Global; Baltics; Europe
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
A Fiscal Indicator for Assessing First and Second Pillar Pension Reforms
Mauricio Soto
,
Frank Eich
, and
Mr. Benedict J. Clements
Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.
Keywords:
SDN; budget balance; Fiscal policy; explicit and implicit government debt; pension obligations and reforms; population aging; pension balance; group liability; pension-adjusted balance; current-period balance; Pension spending; Budget planning and preparation; Pension reform; Fiscal stance; Fiscal sustainability; Central and Eastern Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Latvia: First Review and Financing Assurances Review Under the Stand By Arrangement, Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Rephasing of Purchases Under the Arrangement
International Monetary Fund
The Latvian authorities have strengthened their intervention capacity, financial supervision, and monitoring framework, and have taken steps to contain risks in Parex Bank. The staff report reviews the Republic of Latvia’s economic developments and policies. Substantial progress has been achieved in stabilizing the financial sector. The collapse in output has revealed significant underlying fiscal weaknesses that risk leading to unsustainable deficits in the absence of strong corrective measures. The deeper downturn is also in part explained by the much worse-than-projected international environment.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Latvia; Republic of Latvia executive board meeting; CPI inflation rate; surplus; macroeconomic strategy; Latvia's economy; IMF's support; consumer price inflation; Budget planning and preparation; Government debt management; Fiscal stance; Global