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Europe > Latvia, Republic of

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 14 items for :

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Estonia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper explains Estonia’s recent losses of export market shares. Estonia’s export market share has fallen sharply, signalling that exporters have difficulties to keep up with foreign competition. While the immediate cause of this decline can be traced back to an adverse combination of external shocks triggered by the war in Ukraine, signs of faltering export performance surfaced already in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, and thus predate recent shocks. Using a constant share decomposition, this paper shows that, unlike in Latvia and Lithuania, a significant portion of the decline in Estonia’s export share can be attributed to the ‘intensive margin’, i.e., a shrinking share of Estonia’s exports in the main destination markets—a sign of weakening external competitiveness and declining relative productivity. A few high-level policy implications can be drawn. Addressing the erosion of external competitiveness will require structural reforms aimed at enhancing productivity, removing impediment to a structural transformation of the economy toward more technologically intensive and higher value-added products and services, as well as efforts to ensure that real wage growth remains closely aligned with productivity growth. By addressing these underlying challenges, Estonia can restore external competitiveness and ensure continued convergence toward the income levels of EU most advanced economies and Nordic neighbors.
Keywords:
labor market liberalization; Within-Sector allocative efficiency; export market share; export share decline; TFP dynamics; Estonia's government spending; tax revenue-to-GDP ratio; Total factor productivity; Exports; Capital adequacy requirements; Productivity; Baltics; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Micro-Assessment of Macroprudential Borrower-Based Measures in Lithuania
Mantas Dirma
and
Jaunius Karmelavičius
Despite having introduced borrower-based measures (BBM), Lithuania's housing and mortgage markets were booming during the low-interest-rate period, casting doubt on the macroprudential toolkit's ability to contain excessive mortgage growth. This paper assesses the adequacy of BBMs’ parametrization in Lithuania. We do so by building a novel lifetime expected credit loss framework that is founded on actual loan-level default and household income data. We show that the BBM package effectively contains mortgage credit risk and that housing loans are more resilient to stress than in the preregulatory era. Our BBM limit calibration exercise reveals that (1) in the low-rate environment, income-based measures could have been tighter; and (2) borrowers taking out secondary mortgages rightly are and should be required to pledge a higher down payment.
Keywords:
macroprudential policy; borrower-based measures; LTV; mortgage credit risk; lifetime expected loss; probability of default.; calibration exercise; BBM package; modeling mortgage risk; Lithuania's housing market; Mortgages; Loans; Credit risk; Housing prices; Macroprudential policy instruments; Europe; Baltics; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Euro Area Policies: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Detailed Assessment of Observance of Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The SSM (SSM) has made a solid start. Set up a little over three years ago, the SSM has developed into a coherent banking supervision mechanism operating across the 19 Euro Area Member States. Banking supervision at the European Central Bank (ECB) is underpinned by a clear mandate and independence from government or industry interference in individual supervisory decisions. Its well-defined supervisory methodology and processes—complemented by committed staff—have laid the foundations for more forward-looking, pre-emptive, and evenhanded supervision. This is a noteworthy achievement for the Euro Area.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; ECB banking supervision; risk management; credit institution; CRD IV; management body; business strategy; central bank; senior management; financial market; risk profile; Bank supervision; Credit; Credit risk; Operational risk; Market risk; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Banks’ Adjustment to Basel III Reform: A Bank-Level Perspective for Emerging Europe
Michal Andrle
,
Vladimír Tomšík
, and
Mr. Jan Vlcek
The paper seeks to identify strategies of commercial banks in response to higher capital requirements of Basel III reform and its phase-in. It focuses on a sample of nine EU emerging market countries and picks up 5 largest banks in each country assessing their response. The paper finds that all banking sectors raised CAR ratios mainly through retained earnings. In countries where the banking sector struggled with profitability, banks have resorted to issuance of new equity or shrunk the size of their balance sheets to meet the higher capital-adequacy requirements. Worries echoed at the early stage of Basel III compilation, namely that commercial banks would shrink their balance sheet by reducing their lending to meet stricter capital requirements, did materialize only in banks struggling with profitability.
Keywords:
WP; bank; net income; balance sheet; asset; capital adequacy; Basel III; banking sector assets; cost of capital; capital adequacy ratio dynamics; increase in capital capital ratio; balance sheet growth; CAR decomposition; Income; Capital adequacy requirements; Commercial banks; Financial statements; Stocks; Europe; Baltics; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Latvia: First Post-Program Monitoring Discussions
International Monetary Fund
This collection of papers presents the First Post-Program Monitoring Discussions focusing on economic development in the Republic of Latvia. Latvia successfully completed its EU-IMF-supported program in December 2011. As part of the program, Latvia implemented fiscal consolidation measures of more than 15 percent of GDP. Executive Directors have welcomed Latvia’s economic recovery since the crisis. Directors have commended the remarkable fiscal consolidation and have also emphasized the need for continued prudence to maintain fiscal and debt sustainability.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; deficit; government; economy; headline inflation; discussion; Maastricht criterion; Latvia's economy; Latvian authorities; IMF staff estimate; core inflation; Fiscal stance; Inflation; Loans; Global; Baltics
Cover IMF Working Papers
A New Index of Currency Mismatch and Systemic Risk
Mr. Romain Ranciere
,
Aaron Tornell
, and
Mr. Athanasios Vamvakidis
This paper constructs a new measure of currency mismatch in the banking sector that controls for bank lending to unhedged borrowers. This measure explicitly takes into account the indirect exchange rate risk that banks undertake when they lend to borrowers that will not be able to repay in the event of a sharp depreciation. Such systemic risk taking is not captured by indicators that are based only on banks’ balance sheet data. The new measure is constructed for 10 emerging European economies and for a broader sample that includes 19 additional emerging economies, for the period 1998 - 2008. Comparisons with previous currency mismatch measures that do not adjust for unhedged foreign currency borrowing illustrate the advantages of the new approach. In particular, the new measure flagged the indirect currency mismatch vulnerabilities that were building up in a number of emerging economies before the recent global crisis. Measuring currency mismatch more accurately can help country authorities in their efforts to address vulnerabilities at the right time, avoiding hurting growth prospects.
Keywords:
WP; currency; currency mismatch; foreign currency; bank; loan
Cover IMF Working Papers
Decomposing Financial Risks and Vulnerabilities in Eastern Europe
Mr. Rupert D Worrell
,
Andrea M. Maechler
, and
Ms. Srobona Mitra
This paper assesses how various types of financial risk such as credit risk, market risk, and liquidity risk affect banking stability in the ten countries that joined the European Union most recently, and eight neighboring countries. It also examines how the quality of supervisory standards may have mitigated the vulnerabilities arising from these risk factors. Using panel data, the study finds substantial variation in the impacts of financial risks, the macroeconomic environment, and supervisory standards on banks' risk profile across different country clusters. Credit quality is of general concern especially in circumstances where credit growth is accelerating.
Keywords:
WP; bank; risk; exchange rate
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Lithuania: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper on the Republic of Lithuania discusses structure of the financial sector, banking system vulnerabilities, and challenges. Rapid credit growth has been channeled into consumer and real estate lending, and is increasingly financed by foreign borrowing. The financial soundness indicators (FSIs) suggest a sound banking system, but may be lagging measure for financial system health. The current stress tests do not include a scenario with an economy-wide recession that could describe broader systemic risks to the banking system.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank; earnings; worker; rate; parent bank; tax wedge; bank asset-to-GDP ratio; word bank World Development Indicators; bank supervisor; parent-bank lending; income tax; Personal income tax; Tax wedge; Wages; Income tax systems; Securities; Eastern Europe; Baltics; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Assessing and Managing Rapid Credit Growth and the Role of Supervisory and Prudential Policies
Ceyla Pazarbasioglu
,
Miss Gudrun Johnsen
,
Mr. Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers
, and
Ms. Inci Ötker
This paper reviews trends in bank lending to the private sector, with a particular focus on Central and Eastern European countries, and finds that rapid growth of private sector credit continues to be a key challenge for most of these countries. The paper discusses possible implications for economic and financial stability and the policy options available to counter and reduce these risks. It argues that the authorities will need to focus on the implications for both the macro economy and the financial system and, depending on their assessment, may need a comprehensive policy response comprising a mix of macro and prudential policies. In particular where there are limitations to the effective use of monetary and fiscal measures, supervisory and prudential policy responses will have a key role in addressing financial stability concerns.
Keywords:
WP; credit growth; CEE country; credit boom; interest rate; private sector; financial stability; supervisory and prudential policies; lending boom; loan portfolio; boom episode; rate spread; credit demand; credit quality; composition of credit; credit growth process; boom period; credit culture; Credit; Credit booms; Bank credit; Loans; Credit risk; Eastern Europe
Cover Guidelines for Foreign Exchange Reserve Management
Guidelines for Foreign Exchange Reserve Management
Accompanying Document and Case Studies
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This accompanying document to the Guidelines for Foreign Exchange Reserve Management, which the IMF published in 2004, presents case studies prepared by reserve management entities in 20 countries. These sample case studies illustrate how a range of countries from around the world, at different stages of economic and financial development and institutional structure, have developed their capacity in reserve management in the areas covered by the Guidelines. The various strategies adopted by the countries, which are based on the country-specific policy environment, offer useful insights and suggestions to countries seeking to strengthen their policy frameworks for reserve management.

Keywords:
M&G; portfolio; reserve; risk; market; ST debt; securities lending; portfolio management statistics; ratio of reserve; credit card ABS; portfolio manager; Reserves management; Currencies; International reserves; Market risk; Liquidity; Global; Europe; East Asia; liquidity portfolio; reserves portfolio; country case studies; currency risk; Credit risk