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Europe > Latvia, Republic of

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Latvia: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Latvia
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation highlights that Latvia is facing an inflation shock, slow growth, and geopolitical challenges. The government will have to continue to deal with the spillovers in the Baltic region from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the impact of sanctions imposed on Russia and Belarus, the cost-of-living crisis, and energy security. These short-term concerns are adding to the long-term policy challenge of sustaining the income convergence process. Latvia’s income convergence has already been lagging the other Baltic countries. Amid high uncertainty, the balance of risks is tilted to the downside. The main risks stem from an escalation of the war and associated sanctions, which could result in renewed increases in energy prices, energy supply disruptions in Europe, and weaker external demand. Global financial conditions could further tighten, with spillovers to Latvian banks and domestic credit growth. The paper recommends that structural policies should facilitate the green transition, reduce skill shortages, and boost productivity.
Keywords:
income convergence; shock support measure; inflation shock; government finance statistics yearbook; inflation momentum; bank credit risk indicator; Inflation; Energy prices; Fiscal stance; Baltics; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Lithuania: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines the reasons behind Lithuania’s low tax-GDP ratio relative to the European Union (EU). At end-2015, Lithuania had nearly the lowest tax-GDP ratio in the EU, along with Bulgaria and Romania. The tax revenue shortfall relative to the EU is for the most part attributable to weak tax administration and tax policy, with the structure of the economy playing a secondary role. The second largest contribution to the tax revenue shortfall relative to the EU comes from social security contributions. The shortfall is driven primarily by the structure of the economy, and to a smaller extent by tax administration.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Lithuania; tax; Israel; ad valorem tax; firm; innovation promotion; public-sector R&D expenditure; Innovation policy; R&D fund; incentive program; car registration tax; tax exemption; EU average; innovation program; tax structure; harmonized EU minimum; Social security contributions; Tax administration core functions; Value-added tax; Personal income tax; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Tale of Two Sectors: Why is Misallocation Higher in Services than in Manufacturing?
Daniel A Dias
,
Christine J. Richmond
, and
Carlos Robalo Marques
Recent empirical studies document that the level of resource misallocation in the service sector is significantly higher than in the manufacturing sector. We quantify the importance of this difference and study its sources. Conservative estimates for Portugal (2008) show that closing this gap, by reducing misallocation in the service sector to manufacturing levels, would boost aggregate gross output by around 12 percent and aggregate value added by around 31 percent. Differences in the effect and size of productivity shocks explain most of the gap in misallocation between manufacturing and services, while the remainder is explained by differences in firm productivity and age distribution. We interpret these results as stemming mainly from higher output price rigidity, greater labor adjustment costs and more informality in the service sector.
Keywords:
WP; service sector; Misallocation; productivity; firm-level data; structural transformation; Gelbach decomposition; productivity shock; efficiency gain; TFP distribution; factor share; productivity distribution; balance-sheet data; industry classification; industry level; manufacturing sector industry; output price rigidity; ol tne; output wedge; Services sector; Total factor productivity; Manufacturing
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Latvia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines the prospects for Latvia continuing to rapidly reduce its distance from the productivity frontier. It looks at the empirical record of countries that have in the past attained a similar relative level of income to that of Latvia at present, to gauge the plausibility of the forecast for Latvia’s medium term GDP growth of about 4 percent per year. It highlights that more than one-third of the countries reaching a similar stage of development managed to sustain higher subsequent growth. The paper also confirms the importance of investment and structural reforms for Latvia’s future convergence, using a sector-level analysis.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; employment ratio; growth decomposition; multifactor productivity convergence; employment growth; extent emigration; productivity frontier; Migration; Productivity; Labor productivity; Employment; Eastern Europe; Europe; Africa; Baltics; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Lithuania: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
In Lithuania, the case for complementing the on going fiscal adjustment with revenue measures is strong. In addition to supporting the adjustment, options to raise revenue need to be tailored to enhance growth and export competitiveness. International and empirical evidence suggest important scope for revenue-enhancing tax reforms in Lithuania. Lithuania is in a position to rebalance growth towards exports. Executive Directors suggest a broad tax reform strategy that could raise revenue and tax new revenue sources while supporting growth, competitiveness, and equity to substantially bolster revenues.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Lithuania; IMF staff calculation; inflation; revenue; statistics Lithuania; ULC relative; credit boom; credit-less recovery; Credit; Income and capital gains taxes; Income; Personal income; Global; Baltics; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Some Uncomfortable Arithmetic Regarding Europe’s Public Finances
Mrs. Delia Velculescu
Traditional fiscal indicators focused on measures of current deficits and debt miss the potentially important implications of current policies for future public finances. This could be problematic, including in the case of Europe, where population aging is expected to pose additional fiscal costs not captured by such indicators. To better gauge the state of public finances in the EU27 countries, this paper derives forward-looking fiscal measures of intertemporal net worth both directly from the European Commission’s Aging Working Group’s long-run indicators and using a comprehensive public-sector balance sheet approach. These measures could be used as an "early warning" mechanism and also as a communication device with the public. Current estimates indicate that, on existing policies, the intertemporal net worth of the EU27 is deeply negative, even in excess of its GDP level, and is projected to worsen further over time. This suggests that Europe’s current policies need to be significantly strengthened to bring future liabilities in line with the EU governments’ capacity to generate assets.
Keywords:
WP; country; GDP; deficit
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Latvia: Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Latvia; exchange rate; foreign currency; current account; broad money; economic activity; liquidity ratio; Budget planning and preparation; Agroindustries; Commercial banks; Credit; Middle East; Western Hemisphere; Baltics; Central Asia; East Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Estonia: Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; gross domestic product; Estonia; revenue; Estonia banking Survey; Fund staff estimate; shorts term loan; interest income; net credit; financial institution; kroon liability; Loans; Agroindustries; Foreign assets
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
The Republic of Latvia: Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Latvia; budget; budget institution; commercial bank; exchange rate; economic activity; foreign currency; private sector; broad money; Budget planning and preparation; Agroindustries; Public sector; Commercial banks; Baltics; Middle East; Western Hemisphere; Central Asia; East Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Estonia: Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
This report provides the details of the IMF's projections and estimates on Estonia's basic data; gross domestic product by expenditure, origin, and income approach; real gross domestic product by origin; employment by sector; balance of payments; foreign direct investment inflows and outflows by countries; foreign direct investment outflows and inflows by sectors during 1996–2000; maturity and currency composition of deposits and loans; general government revenue and expenditure during 1996–2001; gross external debt; foreign assets; net external debt during 1997–2000, and so on.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; short term; gross domestic product; private sector; capital expenditure; Estonia banking Survey; Fund staff estimate; kroon liability; interest income; kroon liabilities of the Bank of Estonia; liabilities of the Bank of Estonia; net ExternalDebt; net credit; Fund staff projection; bank liability; Foreign assets; Loans; Agroindustries