Europe > Latvia, Republic of

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Serhan Cevik
and
Yueshu Zhao
European electricity markets are in the midst of unprecedented changes—caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the rise of renewable sources of energy. Using high-frequency data, this paper investigates volatility spillovers across 24 countries in the European Union (EU) during the period 2014–2024 to provide a better understanding of the transmission of risks in an international context. We develop both a static and a dynamic assessment of spillover effects and directional decomposition between individual countries. Our main findings show that about 73 percent of the forecast error variation is explained by cross-variance shares, which means only 27 percent can be attributed to shocks within each country. In other words, cross-border volatility spillovers dominate the behavior in national electricity markets in Europe—and this effect has grown over time. We also implement an augmented gravity model of bilateral volatility spillovers across power markets in the EU. Altogether, these results provide important insights to policymakers and regulators with regards to greater integration of electricity markets and infrastructure improvements that would also help with the transition to low-carbon sources of power generation and strengthen energy security in Europe.
Harold James

Abstract

The book explores the Fund’s engagement in Europe in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, and especially after 2010. It explains how, why, and with what consequences the International Monetary Fund—along with the European Central Bank and the European Commission (together known as “the troika”)—supported adjustment programs in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Cyprus as well as helping to monitor Spain’s adjustment program and exploring modalities for supporting Italy. Additionally, it analyzes how the euro area developments interacted with and affected the rest of Europe, including not only eastern and southeastern Europe but also the United Kingdom, where the political fallout from post-financial crisis populism—in the form of “Brexit” from the European Union—was, in the end, the most extreme. The IMF’s European programs embroiled the Fund in numerous controversies over the exceptionally large lending, over whether or not to impose losses on private creditors, and over the mix between external financing and internal adjustment undertaken by program countries. They also required the IMF to confront longstanding questions about its governance and evenhandedness in the treatment of different segments of its membership. The crisis programs, with Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Cyprus, all revolved around debt sustainability. In the Greek case, after an intense internal debate, the IMF initially chose a program without debt reduction because it feared that such a program–even if ultimately in the interests of Greece, the client country–would trigger a panic of banks and other creditors and thus generate contagion for the rest of Europe. Learning from the Greek case, in Ireland and Portugal, the IMF pushed for debt reduction, to which the government in Ireland but not in Portugal was sympathetic. There was thus no private sector debt reduction in Ireland and Portugal. The European programs were caught up in big geopolitical debates about the appropriate role of the Fund in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. The book examines the intellectual and policy shifts that took place in the IMF as a result of the controversies about its European programs. It concludes with some reflections on how all the programs also produced genuine policy reform and held out the possibility of a return to growth and prosperity.

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper highlights quantitative tightening (QT) by the European Central Bank (ECB). It uses evidence from the literature on the impact of central bank bond purchases and sales on bond yields, and the monetary policy stance, to outline a roadmap for reducing the Euro system’s bond holdings. The current tightening cycle provides an opportunity to revisit the ECB’s balance sheet policy. With inflation running above target, the monetary accommodation provided by the ECB’s bond holding is no longer necessary. The current tightening cycle provides an opportunity to revisit the ECB’s balance sheet policy. With inflation running above target, the monetary accommodation provided by the ECB’s bond holding is no longer necessary. The paper concludes that the ECB’s short term policy rates should be the main choice for adapting the monetary policy stance to changing circumstances and QT should proceed in a gradual, predictable manner as outlined by the ECB.
Mr. Bas B. Bakker
,
Marta Korczak
, and
Mr. Krzysztof Krogulski
In the last decade, over half of the EU countries in the euro area or with currencies pegged to the euro were hit by large risk premium shocks. Previous papers have focused on the impact of these shocks on demand. This paper, by contrast, focuses on the impact on supply. We show that risk premium shocks reduce the output level that maximizes profit. They also lead to unemployment surges, as firms are forced to cut costs when financing becomes expensive or is no longer available. As a result, all countries with risk premium shocks saw unemployment surge, even as euro area core countries managed to contain unemployment as firms hoarded labor during the downturn. Most striking, wage bills in euro area crisis countries and the Baltics declined even faster than GDP, whereas in core euro area countries wage shares actually increased.
Michal Andrle
,
Vladimír Tomšík
, and
Mr. Jan Vlcek
The paper seeks to identify strategies of commercial banks in response to higher capital requirements of Basel III reform and its phase-in. It focuses on a sample of nine EU emerging market countries and picks up 5 largest banks in each country assessing their response. The paper finds that all banking sectors raised CAR ratios mainly through retained earnings. In countries where the banking sector struggled with profitability, banks have resorted to issuance of new equity or shrunk the size of their balance sheets to meet the higher capital-adequacy requirements. Worries echoed at the early stage of Basel III compilation, namely that commercial banks would shrink their balance sheet by reducing their lending to meet stricter capital requirements, did materialize only in banks struggling with profitability.
Ruud A. de Mooij
Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

Une situation foncièrement saine devrait permettre à l’économie européenne de supporter sans trop de mal les turbulences financières actuelles. Les prévisions laissent néanmoins entrevoir un tassement du rythme de croissance dans presque tous les pays de la région en 2008. Les dirigeants devront s'attaquer résolument aux turbulences des marchés financiers tout en assainissant les finances publiques et en mettant en œuvre des réformes structurelles, notamment dans le secteur financier, afin de pallier les vulnérabilités, de relever les perspectives de croissance à moyen terme et de réaliser la convergence promise dans les pays émergents d'Europe. Trois chapitres analytiques abordent les réformes visant à renforcer les systèmes financiers de l'Europe afin de permettre aux pays avancés de tirer parti de l'innovation sans encourir de risques excessifs, et aux pays émergents de gérer le développement rapide du secteur financier et de renforcer encore les systèmes financiers.

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

Strong fundamentals should allow Europe to weather financial turbulence relatively well. Nonetheless, growth is set to ease in 2008 in nearly all countries. Policymakers will need to deal up front with the financial market turmoil, while implementing fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, including in the financial sector, to address vulnerabilities, raise medium-term growth prospects, and deliver on the promise of convergence for emerging Europe. Three analytical chapters discuss reforms to strengthen Europe's financial systems to allow advanced economies to benefit from innovation without incurring excessive risk and, in emerging economies, to manage rapid financial deepening and develop financial systems further.

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

Strong fundamentals should allow Europe to weather financial turbulence relatively well. Nonetheless, growth is set to ease in 2008 in nearly all countries. Policymakers will need to deal up front with the financial market turmoil, while implementing fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, including in the financial sector, to address vulnerabilities, raise medium-term growth prospects, and deliver on the promise of convergence for emerging Europe. Three analytical chapters discuss reforms to strengthen Europe's financial systems to allow advanced economies to benefit from innovation without incurring excessive risk and, in emerging economies, to manage rapid financial deepening and develop financial systems further.

International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper on the Republic of Lithuania discusses structure of the financial sector, banking system vulnerabilities, and challenges. Rapid credit growth has been channeled into consumer and real estate lending, and is increasingly financed by foreign borrowing. The financial soundness indicators (FSIs) suggest a sound banking system, but may be lagging measure for financial system health. The current stress tests do not include a scenario with an economy-wide recession that could describe broader systemic risks to the banking system.