Europe > Latvia, Republic of

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International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
This paper presents a regional report on Nordic-Baltic technical assistance project: financial flows analysis, Anti-Money Laundering and combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) Supervision, and Financial Stability. The purpose of the project is to conduct an analysis of cross-border ML threats and vulnerabilities in the Nordic-Baltic region—encompassing Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, and Sweden (the Nordic-Baltic Constituency or NBC)—and issue a final report containing recommendations for mitigating the potential risks. The financial flows analysis presented in this report is based on the IMF staff’s analysis of cross-border payments data. Six out of the eight Nordic-Baltic countries have seen an increase in aggregate flows since 2013. Monitoring cross-border financial flows provides countries with a deeper understanding of their external ML threat environment and evolving cross-border related risks they are facing. Leveraging broader analysis of ML/TF cross-border risk, the Nordic-Baltic countries should develop their own understanding of higher-risk countries reflecting country-specific ML/TF threats.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on the Republic of Lithuania takes stock of policies and reforms countries are implementing to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Within Europe, the Baltic Sea basin is particularly vulnerable to global warming caused by climate change. Fiscal policy measures, including a carbon tax on fossil fuels, are the most efficient tool for climate change mitigation. Well-designed policies and structural reforms would help reduce CO2 emissions and strengthen energy security. Baltic countries must also mainstream adaptation into development plans to strengthen resilience against climate change. Long-term climate risks demand decisive action to strengthen physical, financial, institutional, and social resilience. While a variety of adaptation measures have been introduced to enhance resilience to climate change throughout Europe, there are still significant gaps that keep some countries, such as the Baltics, more vulnerable to threats associated with climate change. Furthermore, strengthening physical and financial resilience would reduce damages from climate change and increase expected returns to private investment and output.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyses the implications of global value chains (GVC) participation for Latvia’s competitiveness and exposure to risks. Using a structural model, it assesses Latvia’s competitiveness through different real effective exchange rate (REER) measures and examines the main factors behind differences in the measures. Based on this analysis, the paper suggests policy options to strengthen Latvia’s competitiveness. The paper also estimates the impact of an appreciation of the GVC related REER measure on value added export growth and real GDP growth, and finds sizable effects, suggesting that a rapid labor market tightening could lead to erosion in competitiveness and reduction in growth. Finally, trade tension induced tariff hikes may have significant cost for Latvia, especially in terms of value added produced in the country. Trade tension induced tariff hikes are likely to have moderate costs for Latvia in terms of value added produced in the country. In this regard, policies aimed at enhancing product sophistication or quality and export market diversification could mitigate Latvia’s exposure to trade shocks in GVCs.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Republic of Latvia highlights that the economy continued to expand rapidly in 2018, as growth surprised with a strong construction-driven upswing. Fiscal and current account deficits are at manageable levels, as is the public debt. The financial system remains stable, despite a significant balance sheet restructuring of banks servicing foreign clients. The growth outlook is favourable; however, risks weigh on the downside due to a less supportive external environment. The financial system remains stable despite a significant balance sheet restructuring of banks servicing foreign clients. Banks remains well capitalized and liquid, with capital levels about 40 percent higher than the euro area average and average liquidity coverage four times the regulatory minimum. Higher productivity and investment growth are needed to offset the impact of Latvia’s exceptionally unfavorable demographic trends and achieve robust long-term growth and rapid income convergence.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that Latvia’s government revenues overperformed in 2017, buoyed by strong economic activity and wage growth. Nonetheless, the 2017 general government structural balance recorded a deficit of 0.8 percent of GDP, which resulted in a positive fiscal impulse rendering fiscal policy procyclical. Despite the suspension of activities of Latvia’s third largest bank on money laundering concerns, the banking system remains well capitalized and liquid, with capital-to-risk-weighted assets of 22.4 percent and liquid assets exceeding 80 percent of short-term liabilities at end-March 2018. Deleveraging of both households and nonfinancial corporations continued, with household debt to income now at half of its pre-crisis levels.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the extent of corruption in Ukraine compared with other countries. The level of corruption in Ukraine is exceptionally high. This could severely undermine economic growth prospects by hindering private investment. Reducing corruption is therefore essential to speed economic convergence with the rest of Europe. Regional comparisons help identify best practices in reducing corruption. The Ukrainian authorities have recently adopted key measures that follow some of these best practices. The country is, however, facing several challenges, including the concentration of political and economic power in a small group of people, which may hamper effective anticorruption efforts.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper evaluates observance of the Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision in the Russian Federation. The legal framework currently in place provides the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) with necessary powers and responsibilities. The CBR may authorize banks, conduct ongoing supervision, oversee compliance with laws, and undertake corrective action to address safety and soundness. Major new reforms increase many aspects of the CBR’s duties and powers, although implementation has not yet been tested in all cases. The Russian licensing regime for banks appears exhaustive. However, the legal regime for major acquisitions was found to be weak.
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses key findings of the Detailed Assessment on Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) for the Republic of Latvia. The assessment reveals that aspects of Latvia’s financial services market expose it to a high risk of money laundering. There are welcome indications that money laundering risks have been reduced substantially owing to strong preventive measures being implemented by the authorities and financial institutions. The authorities and financial institutions are working to restore the international reputation of the Latvian financial sector.
International Monetary Fund
This report reviews the Observance of Standards and Codes on Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) for the Republic of Latvia. Latvia has taken strong measures in recent years, through legislative amendments and improvements in implementation, to address deficiencies in its AML/CFT framework and move closer to compliance with the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Recommendations. Most of the necessary AML/CFT institutions and legal framework are now in place, although coverage of some designated nonfinancial businesses and professions (DNFBPs) is not yet complete.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper reviews the financial sector development in Georgia in recent years, and investigates why it has lagged behind economic development, as well as developments in more advanced transition economies. The paper briefly reviews recent financial sector development in Georgia, comparing it with developments in its neighboring countries in the Caucasus, the seven poorest countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS-7), the Baltics, and central and eastern Europe. The paper also analyzes possible factors constraining financial intermediation in Georgia and in some of the CIS countries more generally.