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Mr. Bas B. Bakker
and
Mr. Leslie Lipschitz
This paper describes the anatomy of two types of balance-sheet macroeconomic crises. Conventional balance-sheet crises are triggered by external imbalances and balance sheet vulnerabilities. They typically occur after capital inflows have led to a substantial build up of foreign currency exposure. Insidious crises are triggered by internal imbalances and balance sheet vulnerabilities. They occur in high-growth economies when an initially equilibrating shift in relative prices and resources and credit in favor of the nontraded sector overshoots equilibrium. The paper argues that policymakers are now better able to forestall conventional crises, but they are much less capable of early detection and avoidance of insidious crises.
Mr. Bas B. Bakker
and
Mr. Christoph A Klingen

Abstract

Emerging Europe was particularly hard hit by the global financial crisis, but a concerted effort by local policymakers and the international community staved off impending financial meltdown and laid the foundations for renewed convergence with western Europe. This book, written by staff of the IMF's European Department that worked on the region at the time, provides a unique account of events: the origins of the crisis and the precrisis policy setting; the crisis trigger and the scramble to avoid the worst; the stabilization and recovery; the remaining challenges; and the lessons for the future. Five regional chapters provide the analytics to put events into perspective. Dedicated chapters for all 19 countries of the region dig deeper into the idiosyncrasies of each economy and provide extensive economic data. A final chapter distills the lessons from the overall regional experience and the wide intraregional diversity. Taken together, they make this book an indispensible reference for economic scholars of the region and beyond.

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

The recovery in Europe continues, supported by strong policy action to contain sovereign debt problems in the euro area. In advanced Europe, lingering uncertainties and market pressures make for moderate and unequal growth, creating challenges for macroeconomic and financial sector policies. The REO also sheds light on the governance issues revealed by the crisis, arguing that better policy frameworks, in particular at the euro area level, promise a stronger Europe. For the first time, the REO devotes a separate chapter to the outlook for emerging Europe, where, after a deep recession, an export-led recovery is under way. However, the rebound is uneven across the region, and policymakers face the difficult challenge of dealing with the legacies of the crisis, while not hurting the recovery. Beyond the short term, the REO argues that the region will need to find new growth engines, as the capital inflows-driven and credit-fueled domestic demand boom needs to give way to more balanced growth. Indeed, the REO emphasizes that active fiscal policy and coordinated prudential measures are key to avoiding a repeat of the boom-bust cycle the region has just endured.

International Monetary Fund
In the past decade, most of the EU New Member States experienced a severe credit-boom bust cycle. This paper argues that the credit boom-bust cycle was to a large extent the result of factors external to the region (“bad luck”). Rapid credit growth followed from a high liquidity in global markets and the particular attractiveness of “new Europe” for capital flows, while the end of the credit cycle was brought about by a global crisis. However, the fact that some countries managed to avoid most of the excesses, including asset price bubbles and foreign exchange lending, suggests that policies and policy failures (“bad policies”)—in particular overly expansionary macroeconomic settings and excessively optimistic views on prudential risks—also have played a critical role.
Mr. Philip Schellekens
and
Mr. Rudolfs Bems
This paper singles out the key short-term risks and medium-term challenges related to finance and convergence in emerging Europe. With the help of a general equilibrium theoretical framework, the paper identifies pragmatic directions for policymakers. While the "speed limits" to capital inflows may be hard to determine, the costs of breaking them are likely substantial. To ensure "safe driving," policymakers ought to build buffers and reduce vulnerabilities. Equally important, yet often overlooked, is the need to prepare for "the curve ahead"-the reversal of external current account imbalances. To avoid painful adjustments, flexible factor markets and strong financial systems will be more important than ever.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Pour les dernières idées sur le système financier international, la politique monétaire, le développement économique, la lutte contre la pauvreté et d’autres questions importantes, abonnez-vous à Finances & Développement (F&D). Ce trimestriel attrayant présente des analyses approfondies sur ces thèmes et d'autres sujets, rédigées par les membres des services du FMI ainsi que par des experts de renommée internationale. Les articles sont écrits pour les non-spécialistes qui souhaitent enrichir leur compréhension des rouages de l'économie mondiale et des politiques et activités du FMI.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
For the latest thinking about the international financial system, monetary policy, economic development, poverty reduction, and other critical issues, subscribe to Finance & Development (F&D). This lively quarterly magazine brings you in-depth analyses of these and other subjects by the IMF’s own staff as well as by prominent international experts. Articles are written for lay readers who want to enrich their understanding of the workings of the global economy and the policies and activities of the IMF.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
For the latest thinking about the international financial system, monetary policy, economic development, poverty reduction, and other critical issues, subscribe to Finance & Development (F&D). This lively quarterly magazine brings you in-depth analyses of these and other subjects by the IMF’s own staff as well as by prominent international experts. Articles are written for lay readers who want to enrich their understanding of the workings of the global economy and the policies and activities of the IMF.
Mr. Alain Ize
Significant capital inflows were observed during the first half of 1995 in a number of FSU countries. This paper reviews the recent experience of those countries with significant inflows, examines policy responses in view of the current macroeconomic and institutional environment, discusses the use of monetary and prudential instruments to sterilize or discourage inflows, and reviews operational considerations for conducting sterilization operations.
Mr. Michael Marrese
,
Mr. Mark Scott Lutz
,
Mr. Tapio Saavalainen
,
Mr. Vincent Koen
,
Mr. Biswajit Banerjee
, and
Mr. Thomas Krueger

Abstract

Four papers analyze the process of transition to a market economy in the Baltics, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Russia through early 1995.