Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Topic

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Europe > Latvia, Republic of

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 30 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Balance of payments x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover Background Papers on The IMF and the Crises in Greece, Ireland, and Portugal
Background Papers on The IMF and the Crises in Greece, Ireland, and Portugal
Moisés J. Schwartz
and
Shinji Takagi

Abstract

This volume book brings together nine background papers prepared for an evaluation by the IMF Independent Evaluation Office of “the IMF and the crises in Greece, Ireland, and Portugal.” It presents an authoritative work on the evolving relationship between the IMF and the euro area, a common currency area founded in 1999 consisting of advanced, highly integrated economies in Europe. The euro area, or any common currency area for that matter, has posed challenges to the IMF’s operational activities as its Articles of Agreement contain no provision for joint membership. The challenges became intense when a series of crises erupted in Greece, Ireland, and Portugal from 2009 to 2011, and the Fund was called upon to help intervene by offering its financing and crisis management expertise. The IMF found itself in uncharted territory where there was no precedent or established procedure. The chapters, many of which are prepared by prominent academics and former senior IMF officials who are thoroughly familiar with internal procedures, discuss various aspects of the IMF’s engagement with the euro area, including precrisis surveillance, how key decisions were made, how the IMF collaborated with European institutions, and how it designed and implemented its lending programs with the three crisis countries. The book gives prominence to governance-related issues, given the large voting share (of more than 20 percent) within the IMF of euro area members and the subsequent public perception that the IMF treated the euro area more favorably than it does developing and emerging market members. The approaches are both cross-cutting and country-based. Some chapters deal with issues related to the euro area as a whole, while others focus on how the Fund engaged with individual euro area countries. The book contains a statement on the IEO evaluation by the IMF Managing Director and a Summing Up of the Executive Board discussion held in July 2016.

Keywords:
IEOR; IEO; International Monetary Fund; government; fund; fund staff protocol; crisis; professor of Economics; IMF staff; crisis program; professor of international economics; Monetary unions; Fiscal consolidation; Global; Europe; West Africa; Caribbean; IEO recommendation; IEO background paper; access to information
Cover IMF Working Papers
Conventional and Insidious Macroeconomic Balance-Sheet Crises
Mr. Bas B. Bakker
and
Mr. Leslie Lipschitz
This paper describes the anatomy of two types of balance-sheet macroeconomic crises. Conventional balance-sheet crises are triggered by external imbalances and balance sheet vulnerabilities. They typically occur after capital inflows have led to a substantial build up of foreign currency exposure. Insidious crises are triggered by internal imbalances and balance sheet vulnerabilities. They occur in high-growth economies when an initially equilibrating shift in relative prices and resources and credit in favor of the nontraded sector overshoots equilibrium. The paper argues that policymakers are now better able to forestall conventional crises, but they are much less capable of early detection and avoidance of insidious crises.
Keywords:
WP; asset; price; current account; deficit; exchange rate; interest rate; crises; balance sheets; business cycles; capital flows; construction boom; emerging market economy; foreign exchange; FX assets; capital account; Capital inflows; Financial statements; Return on investment; Current account deficits; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Progress Towards External Adjustment in the Euro Area Periphery and the Baltics
Mr. Joong S Kang
and
Mr. Jay C Shambaugh
The euro area periphery countries and the Baltic countries, which had large current account deficits in the run-up to the crisis, needed adjustment of relative prices to achieve both internal and external balances. Thus far, tangible progress has been made through lower wages and/or higher productivity relative to trading partners (“internal devaluation”), which contributed to narrowing current account deficits and shifting output towards the tradables sector. While some early adjusters cut wages more rapidly followed by productivity improvement, others have only slowly improved productivity largely through labor shedding. This adjustment for most countries has come along with a substantial recession as the unit labor cost improvement has largely come from falling employment and much of the current account improvement from import compression. Going forward, these countries still need to generate growing tradables sector employment and to continue adjustment to prevent imbalances from returning as output gaps close.
Keywords:
WP; IMF staff calculation; current account; cost; Current account deficit; Internal devaluation; Competitiveness; Unit labor cost; output recovery; private sector; labor shedding; ULC peak; Labor costs; Wages; Employment; Current account deficits; Productivity; Baltics; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sovereign CDS Spreads in Europe: The Role of Global Risk Aversion, Economic Fundamentals, Liquidity, and Spillovers
Mr. Frigyes F Heinz
and
Ms. Yan M Sun
By analysing data from January 2007 to December 2012 in a panel GLS error correction framework we find that European countries’ sovereign CDS spreads are largely driven by global investor sentiment, macroeconomic fundamentals and liquidity conditions in the CDS market. But the relative importance of these factors changes over time. While during the 2008/09 crisis weak economic fundamentals (such as high current account decifit, worsening underlying fiscal balances, credit boom), a drop in liquidity and a spike in risk aversion contributed to high spreads in Central and Eastern and South-Eastern European (CESEE) countries, a marked improvement in fundamentals (e.g. reduction in fiscal deficit, narrowing of current balances, gradual economic recovery) explains the region’s resilience to financial market spillovers during the euro area crisis. Our generalised variance decomposition analyisis does not suggest strong direct spillovers from the euro area periphery. The significant drop in the CDS spreads between July 2012 and December 2012 was mainly driven by a decline in risk aversion as suggested by the model’s out of sample forecasts.
Keywords:
WP; CDS spread; financial market; area crisis; real GDP; CESEE countries; financial spillovers; CDS spreads; CESEE country; sovereign CDS; area CDS; norm decomposition; periphery country; CDS bid; CDS market liquidity condition; Credit default swap; Government debt management; Spillovers; Liquidity; Current account balance; Global; Baltics
Cover Policy Papers
2011 Review of Conditionality - Design of Fund-Supported Programs
International Monetary Fund
Design of Fund-supported programs aims to address country specific needs while remaining even-handed and consistent with Fund policy. This paper examines the extent to which program design and conditionality have been appropriate in pursuing these goals, by seeking to answer several questions: has program design been consistent and evenhanded; has it addressed country specific needs and objectives appropriately; has it been based on reasonably good macroeconomic projections; and has it been flexible in the face of evolving country circumstances. The description and analysis focuses on the period between 2006 and September 2011, with some attention to the 2002-05 period.
Keywords:
PP; current account; exchange rate; PRGT program; monetary policy; program design; program country; country characteristic; Current account balance; Fiscal consolidation; Inflation; Capital account crisis; Exchange rate arrangements; Global
Cover Policy Papers
The Fund's Financing Role - Reform Proposals on Liquidity and Emergency Assistance
International Monetary Fund
The possible global repercussions from the ongoing turmoil in the Euro Area and recent calls for enhanced emergency assistance in the Middle East and North African region are reminders of the urgent need for a more effective global financial safety net to deal with increased interconnectedness and volatility. Past work by staff identified gaps in the Fund’s lending toolkit to respond to liquidity needs of members with relatively strong fundamentals affected during systemic crises (the crisis bystanders), and to address urgent financing needs arising in a broader range of circumstances than natural disasters and post-conflict situations. The companion paper on the Review of the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) and Precautionary Credit Line (PCL) also identified gaps in the overall flexibility of the financing toolkit. This paper provides proposals to fill these gaps, while preserving the simplicity and coherence of the lending framework, and balancing members’ financing needs against the need for adequate safeguards for the use of Fund resources.
Keywords:
PP; fund; financing; lending; PLL arrangement; financing instrument; lending toolkit; workhorse instrument; frontloaded crisis prevention financing; fund policy; fund member; fund engagement; PLL qualifier; financing role; financing needs; request financing assistance from the fund; Balance of payments need; Emergency assistance; Liquidity; Financial safety nets; Global
Cover Policy Papers
2011 Triennial Surveillance Review - Staff Background Studies
International Monetary Fund
This paper evaluates the IMF’s exchange rate analysis since the 2008 TSR. It focuses on the evolution of methods, the quality of the IMF‘s multilateral and bilateral exchange rate analysis, the evenhandedness and transparency of this analysis, and the need to improve the coverage and integration of external stability assessments.
Keywords:
PP; exchange rate; country; Asian LICs; CGER; CGER method; VE-LIC spillover; exchange rate assessment; VE-LIC exercise; VE-LIC framework; country authorities; surveillance work; LIC surveillance; Financial sector; Exchange rate assessments; Exchange rates; Exchange rate analysis; Fiscal consolidation; Global; Europe; Middle East and Central Asia; Western Europe; Baltics
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Cross-Country Incidence of the Global Crisis
Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti
and
Mr. Philip R. Lane
We examine whether the cross-country incidence and severity of the 2008-2009 global recession is systematically related to pre-crisis macroeconomic and financial factors. We find that the pre-crisis level of development, increases in the ratio of private credit to GDP, current account deficits, and openness to trade are helpful in understanding the intensity of the crisis. International risk sharing did little to shield domestic demand from the country-specific component of output declines, while those countries with large pre-crisis current account deficits saw domestic demand fall by much more than domestic output during the crisis.
Keywords:
WP; demand growth; crisis country; economic activity; financial crisis; dependent variable; foreign exchange; real GDP
Cover Policy Papers
Review of Fund Facilities-Analytical Basis for Fund Lending and Reform Options
International Monetary Fund
In the context of the ongoing review of Fund facilities, this paper examines the analytical basis for Fund lending in emerging market countries and provides a broad-ranging perspective for reforming the General Resources Account (GRA) lending toolkit. The Fund’s important lending role in crisis prevention and resolution is buttressed by its unique characteristics: (i) its ability as a nonatomistic lender to provide large-scale financing and reduce the likelihood of a run by private creditors; (ii) its ability as a cooperative institution with near-universal membership to agree conditionality with members, thus providing national authorities with a policy commitment tool to underpin confidence and catalyze private lending; and (iii) its de facto preferred creditor status, which allows it to provide crisis financing when private creditors may be reluctant to lend.
Keywords:
PP; Fund financing; Fund lending; Fund resource; private sector; Fund crisis lending; commitment fee; prevention instrument; Crisis prevention; Capital account crisis; Balance of payments need; Crisis resolution; Options; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Second Transition: Eastern Europe in Perspective
Mr. Daniel Leigh
,
Ms. Stefania Fabrizio
, and
Mr. Ashoka Mody
The countries of Eastern Europe achieved two remarkable transitions in the short period of the last two decades: from plan to market and, then, in the run-up to and entry into the European Union, they rode a wave of global trade and financial market integration. Focusing on the second transition, this paper reaches three conclusions. First, by several metrics, East European and East Asian growth performances were about on par from the mid-1990s; both regions far surpassed Latin American growth. Second, the mechanisms of growth in East Europe and East Asia were, however, very different. East Europe relied on a distinctive-often discredited-model, embracing financial integration with structural change to compensate for appreciating real exchange rates. In contrast, East Asia contained further financial integration and maintained steady or depreciating real exchange rates. Third, the ongoing financial turbulence has, thus far, not had an obviously differential impact on emerging market regions: rather, the hot spots in each region reflect individual country vulnerabilities. If the East European growth model is distinctive, is it sustainable and replicable? The paper speculates on the possibilities.
Keywords:
WP; CEE economy; CEE country; CEE openness ratio; CEE model; CEE achievement; CEE experience; CEE share; Growth; Transition; Trade; and Financial Integration; Real exchange rates; Financial integration; Exports; Current account deficits; Income; East Asia; Global; Eastern Europe; Baltics; Asia and Pacific