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Europe > Latvia, Republic of

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Latvia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper assesses recent developments in Latvia’s competitiveness and productivity in the context of Baltic economies. Latvia’s export market share has declined in recent years reflecting weakening external demand and the effects of EU trade sanctions, but only limited loss of competitiveness. Latvia faces weakening competitiveness. Latvia’s real effective exchange rate appreciation in recent years has been greater than that implied by its productivity trend, so the economy faces a narrowing competitiveness buffer. Latvia’s total factor productivity growth boost post-global financial crisis is unlikely to be sustained without structural reforms and efforts to increase capital investment. A decade-long weak investment, large infrastructure gaps, aging and emigration, and insufficient accumulation in skills weigh on Latvia’s productivity growth and competitiveness. These also pose risks that Lavia could be caught in a middle-income trap with low growth and slow convergence to euro area income level. Therefore, Latvia requires significantly higher investment for sustained convergence. In order to preserve Latvia’s competitiveness and build more resilience against future shocks, it is key to promote productivity growth via structural reforms and capital investment. Boosting productivity is also needed to meet challenges presented from Russia’s war in Ukraine and the ongoing transitions to sustain income convergence.
Keywords:
labor productivity growth; D. allocative efficiency; export share decline; D. Latvia's productivity growth; B. CSA Decomposition; Total factor productivity; Productivity; Labor productivity; Real effective exchange rates; Baltics; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Estonia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper explains Estonia’s recent losses of export market shares. Estonia’s export market share has fallen sharply, signalling that exporters have difficulties to keep up with foreign competition. While the immediate cause of this decline can be traced back to an adverse combination of external shocks triggered by the war in Ukraine, signs of faltering export performance surfaced already in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, and thus predate recent shocks. Using a constant share decomposition, this paper shows that, unlike in Latvia and Lithuania, a significant portion of the decline in Estonia’s export share can be attributed to the ‘intensive margin’, i.e., a shrinking share of Estonia’s exports in the main destination markets—a sign of weakening external competitiveness and declining relative productivity. A few high-level policy implications can be drawn. Addressing the erosion of external competitiveness will require structural reforms aimed at enhancing productivity, removing impediment to a structural transformation of the economy toward more technologically intensive and higher value-added products and services, as well as efforts to ensure that real wage growth remains closely aligned with productivity growth. By addressing these underlying challenges, Estonia can restore external competitiveness and ensure continued convergence toward the income levels of EU most advanced economies and Nordic neighbors.
Keywords:
labor market liberalization; Within-Sector allocative efficiency; export market share; export share decline; TFP dynamics; Estonia's government spending; tax revenue-to-GDP ratio; Total factor productivity; Exports; Capital adequacy requirements; Productivity; Baltics; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Latvia: Selected Issues Paper
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The aim of this paper is to examine selected issues related to Latvia’s economic development. Latvia experienced a large macroeconomic adjustment in the aftermath of the crisis in 2007. The adjustment was characterized by internal devaluation via a combination of wage restraint and productivity gains. Latvia’s creditless recovery has taken unusually long to turn compared to international experience. Although lack of credit has not undermined recovery so far, support from the financial sector will be crucial for its continuation going forward. Emphasis on resuscitating credit growth is key to maintaining recovery. Focus should be on facilitating access to credit for small- and medium-sized enterprises and first-time borrowers, where market failures are the largest.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; firm; Latvia; lending; export orientation; firms TFP; firm level difference; NRD bank; credit growth; risk model; firm productivity; oriented firm; Credit; Total factor productivity; Productivity; Labor productivity; Bank credit; Baltics; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Exports in a Tariff-Free Environment: What Structural Reforms Matter? Evidence from the European Union Single Market
Jesmin Rahman
,
Ara Stepanyan
,
Jessie Yang
, and
Mr. Li Zeng
How do countries enhance their exports of goods in a largely tariff-free environment? Our investigation of export performance of new member states in the European Union single market, which provides a natural control for barrier-free environment, points to the importance of structural reforms, particularly in the areas of higher education, skills upgrade, wage structure’s ability to provide incentives to work and foreign investment environment. In addition, establishing links with supply chains, which in addition to the above-mentioned reforms also depend on better institutions and infrastructure, are important. The analysis in the paper shows that new member states are at varying levels of quality and integration, which highlights the need for country-specific policy priorities. Services trade, which is subject to significant non-tariff barriers in the EU market even after the implementation of the Services Directive, shows considerable room for growth given the comparative advantage of some of the new member states.
Keywords:
WP; export; country; export quality; single market; supply chain; Export integration; structural reform; comparative advantage; European Union; new member states; exports to the EU; quality improvement; EU single market; export products; Exports; Service exports; Export performance; Foreign direct investment; Human capital; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Latvia: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Latvia’s strong recovery has recently slowed in the face of sluggish growth in the euro area and deteriorating economic conditions in Russia amid rising geopolitical tensions. GDP growth decelerated to 2.4 percent in 2014 reflecting weak demand and the prolonged closure of a steel manufacturer. In 2015, the weak external environment, particularly the sharp slowdown in Russia, will continue to weigh on exports and investment. This is expected to be mitigated, but not fully offset, by higher disposable income owing to lower oil prices and robust real wages, the reopening of the steel manufacturer, and the accommodative monetary stance of the European Central Bank.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GDP; current account; Latvia; euro; financial asset; executive board assessment; consumer price inflation; exchange rate; fiscal policy; liability position vis-à-vis nonresident; headline inflation; structural unemployment; Income; Credit; Exports; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Baltic Cluster Report: Staff Report for the 2014 Cluster Consultation
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2014 Cluster Consultation report examines common themes and challenges facing the three Baltic countries—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. It identifies common features and common challenges, and discusses policies—both national and joint—that could help to address these challenges. The Baltic economies have performed well during the last two decades. The global financial crisis exposed vulnerabilities that had built up in the Baltics, but the postcrisis recovery revealed inherent strengths as well. This report highlights that national policies are necessary to address all of the challenges, but collaboration is also important in some areas.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; country; authority; IMF pilot project; economy; consultation; staffs assessment; skill mismatch; staffs discussion; export product mix; NAIRU estimate; Credit; Exports; Labor taxes; Unemployment; Baltics; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Baltic Cluster Report: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on the Baltic model, Baltic–Nordic links, and convergence. The Baltic countries form a distinct group within a tightly integrated Nordic–Baltic region. They are following similar approaches to economic policy, broadly in line with those of Northern European and the Anglo-Saxon countries. Their macroeconomic policies are generally robust. The paper examines the possible causes of the creditless recoveries in the Baltic countries. It characterizes their experience in comparison with other episodes of creditless recoveries in both advanced and emerging market economies, and also investigates demand and supply constraints to credit expansion in the Baltics.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; export; Baltics; FDI; credit growth; export sector; country pair; Baltic country; higher-income country; Exports; Credit; Structural unemployment; Unemployment; Labor taxes; Global; Western Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Decoupling from the East Toward the West? Analyses of Spillovers to the Baltic Countries
International Monetary Fund
This paper uses VAR models to examine the magnitude and sources of growth spillovers to the Baltics from key trading partners, as well asfrom the real effective exchange rate (REER). Our results show there are significant cross-country spillovers to the Baltics with those from the EU outweighing spillovers from Russia. Shocks to the REER generally depress growth in the Baltics, and this intensifies over time. We also find that financial and trade channels dominate the transmission of spillovers to the region which partly explains the realization of downside risks to the Baltics from the global slowdown.
Keywords:
WP; GDP; Lithuania; Latvia; price
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Second Transition: Eastern Europe in Perspective
Mr. Daniel Leigh
,
Ms. Stefania Fabrizio
, and
Mr. Ashoka Mody
The countries of Eastern Europe achieved two remarkable transitions in the short period of the last two decades: from plan to market and, then, in the run-up to and entry into the European Union, they rode a wave of global trade and financial market integration. Focusing on the second transition, this paper reaches three conclusions. First, by several metrics, East European and East Asian growth performances were about on par from the mid-1990s; both regions far surpassed Latin American growth. Second, the mechanisms of growth in East Europe and East Asia were, however, very different. East Europe relied on a distinctive-often discredited-model, embracing financial integration with structural change to compensate for appreciating real exchange rates. In contrast, East Asia contained further financial integration and maintained steady or depreciating real exchange rates. Third, the ongoing financial turbulence has, thus far, not had an obviously differential impact on emerging market regions: rather, the hot spots in each region reflect individual country vulnerabilities. If the East European growth model is distinctive, is it sustainable and replicable? The paper speculates on the possibilities.
Keywords:
WP; CEE economy; CEE country; CEE openness ratio; CEE model; CEE achievement; CEE experience; CEE share; Growth; Transition; Trade; and Financial Integration; Real exchange rates; Financial integration; Exports; Current account deficits; Income; East Asia; Global; Eastern Europe; Baltics; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Estonia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This paper assesses Estonia’s flexibility from two angles. The paper focuses on one aspect of that performance—the ability to sustain competitiveness. Then, a more forward-looking angle is the flexibility of Estonia’s labor and product markets. Estonia has made great progress in achieving real convergence in the last decade. Current account deficits are integral to convergence. A key question raised by this analysis is whether the large external imbalances and the counterpart buildup in external obligations will be smoothly reversed.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; private sector; Estonia; nonbank; nonbank private sector; currency board arrangement; foreign currency; asset position; net foreign exchange liability position; macroeconomic stability; Currencies; Nonbank financial institutions; Financial statements; Exports; Foreign currency exposure; Baltics; Central and Eastern Europe; Eastern Europe