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Europe > Latvia, Republic of

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Cover IMF Working Papers
The Direct Employment Impact of Public Investment
Marian Moszoro
We evaluate the direct employment effect of the public investment in key infrastructure—electricity, roads, schools and hospitals, and water and sanitation. Using rich firm-level panel data from 41 countries over 19 years, we estimate that US$1 million of public spending in infrastructure create 3–7 jobs in advanced economies, 10–17 jobs in emerging market economies, and 16–30 jobs in low-income developing countries. As a comparison, US$1 million public spending on R&D yields 5–11 jobs in R&D in OECD countries. Green investment and investment with a larger R&D component deliver higher employment effect. Overall, we estimate that one percent of global GDP in public investment can create more than seven million jobs worldwide through its direct employment effects alone.
Keywords:
employment effect; job content; employment impact; job elasticity; job intensity; construction employment; job multiplier; Public investment spending; Employment; Job creation; Income; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Unemployment Surges in the EU: The Role of Risk Premium Shocks
Mr. Bas B. Bakker
,
Marta Korczak
, and
Mr. Krzysztof Krogulski
In the last decade, over half of the EU countries in the euro area or with currencies pegged to the euro were hit by large risk premium shocks. Previous papers have focused on the impact of these shocks on demand. This paper, by contrast, focuses on the impact on supply. We show that risk premium shocks reduce the output level that maximizes profit. They also lead to unemployment surges, as firms are forced to cut costs when financing becomes expensive or is no longer available. As a result, all countries with risk premium shocks saw unemployment surge, even as euro area core countries managed to contain unemployment as firms hoarded labor during the downturn. Most striking, wage bills in euro area crisis countries and the Baltics declined even faster than GDP, whereas in core euro area countries wage shares actually increased.
Keywords:
WP; risk premium shock; risk premium; interest rate; GDP; Risk premia; interest rates; Euro area crisis; global economic; fincanial crisis; debt ratio; risk premium surge; unemployment surge; financing cost; Return on investment; Unemployment; Employment; Sovereign bonds; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Croatia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper mainly examines fiscal decentralization, credit-loss recovery, and unemployment in Croatia. The degree of expenditure and revenue decentralization in Croatia appears limited relative to its peers. At about 16 percent of general government spending, subnational government spending in Croatia is modest compared to other southeastern European countries and to the EU-28 average, and particularly low compared to the most decentralized countries in the EU. Croatia’s recovery since late 2014 has been moderate. Croatia’s recession lasted six years and was thus the longest among the new EU member states. Croatia’s structural and cyclical unemployment rates are very high, at about 11.5 percent and 5 percent respectively in 2015.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; local government; wage; cyclical unemployment unemployment rate; unemployment trap; Subnational government; government structure; city authorities; reservation wage; Unemployment rate; Unemployment; Public employment; Nonperforming loans; Wages; Central and Eastern Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Cross-Country Report on Minimum Wages: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper provides a cross-country report on minimum wages. In the past few years, many countries in Central Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) have increasingly turned to minimum wage policies. Throughout the region, statutory minimum wages had been in place at least since the early 1990s, but they were typically set at relatively moderate levels and affected relatively few workers. Minimum wages have risen sharply relative to both average wages and labor productivity. Minimum wages often affect relatively more workers in CESEE than in Western Europe. Governments are the key players in the minimum wage determination in CESEE countries.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; minimum wage hike; wage growth; minimum-to-average wage ratio; wage distribution; minimum wage policy; Minimum wages; Wages; Wage adjustments; Employment; Income distribution; Western Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Latvia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines the prospects for Latvia continuing to rapidly reduce its distance from the productivity frontier. It looks at the empirical record of countries that have in the past attained a similar relative level of income to that of Latvia at present, to gauge the plausibility of the forecast for Latvia’s medium term GDP growth of about 4 percent per year. It highlights that more than one-third of the countries reaching a similar stage of development managed to sustain higher subsequent growth. The paper also confirms the importance of investment and structural reforms for Latvia’s future convergence, using a sector-level analysis.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; employment ratio; growth decomposition; multifactor productivity convergence; employment growth; extent emigration; productivity frontier; Migration; Productivity; Labor productivity; Employment; Eastern Europe; Europe; Africa; Baltics; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Progress Towards External Adjustment in the Euro Area Periphery and the Baltics
Mr. Joong S Kang
and
Mr. Jay C Shambaugh
The euro area periphery countries and the Baltic countries, which had large current account deficits in the run-up to the crisis, needed adjustment of relative prices to achieve both internal and external balances. Thus far, tangible progress has been made through lower wages and/or higher productivity relative to trading partners (“internal devaluation”), which contributed to narrowing current account deficits and shifting output towards the tradables sector. While some early adjusters cut wages more rapidly followed by productivity improvement, others have only slowly improved productivity largely through labor shedding. This adjustment for most countries has come along with a substantial recession as the unit labor cost improvement has largely come from falling employment and much of the current account improvement from import compression. Going forward, these countries still need to generate growing tradables sector employment and to continue adjustment to prevent imbalances from returning as output gaps close.
Keywords:
WP; IMF staff calculation; current account; cost; Current account deficit; Internal devaluation; Competitiveness; Unit labor cost; output recovery; private sector; labor shedding; ULC peak; Labor costs; Wages; Employment; Current account deficits; Productivity; Baltics; Global
Cover IMF Research Bulletin
IMF Research Bulletin, March 2014
International Monetary Fund
The Research Summaries in the March 2014 Research Bulletin focus on efficiency of health expenditure (Francesco Grigoli and Javier Kapsoli) and employment growth in European Union countries (Bas B. Bakker and Li Zeng). The Q&A article looks at “Seven Questions on Financial Interconnectedness” (Co-Pierre Georg and Camelia Minoiu). The Research Bulletin also includes a listing of IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore. Information on the IMF Economic Review—the research journal of the IMF—is also provided.
Keywords:
IRB; IMF research bulletin; bulletin; research; IMF bookstore; research journal; Thomson Reuters journal citation; IMF research; journal of the International Monetary Fund; Employment; Health care spending; Financial contagion; Expenditure efficiency; Global; Asia and Pacific; Western Hemisphere; Middle East and Central Asia; Europe; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bulgaria: Selected Issues Paper
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper reviews recent developments in growth and employment in Bulgaria and highlights key constraints to growth suggested by cross-country competitiveness studies. Bulgaria’s GDP has grown substantially since economic and financial stabilization in 1997. The global economic crisis had a major effect on Bulgarian growth and employment. After falling by 5½ percent in 2009, real GDP has grown at a low rate, and by 2012 real GDP was still 3 percent short of its 2008 level. However, employment growth was negative during 2009–2012, and the first small uptick occurred only in 2013.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Bulgaria; GDP; crisis; health system's performance; population risk; EU country; NSI Bulgaria; crisis response; crisis experience; Social assistance spending; Employment; Health care spending; Pension spending; Income; Global; Eastern Europe; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Dismal Employment Growth in EU Countries: The Role of Corporate Balance Sheet Repair and Dual Labor Markets
Mr. Bas B. Bakker
and
Mr. Li Zeng
This paper argues that the large differences among EU countries in post-crisis employment performance are to a large extent driven by the need to adjust corporate balance sheets, which had greatly deteriorated during the boom years in some countries but not in others. To close the large gaps between saving and investment, firms reduced investment and cut costs to boost profits. With much of the cost adjustment falling on firms’ wage bills, employment losses were largest in countries under the most intense pressures to improve corporate profitability and with limited wage flexibility due to labor market duality.
Keywords:
WP; profit; profit share; share; labor market; Employment; saving; debt; firms; employment growth; increase variation; labor market duality; share change; Labor markets; Corporate sector; Wages; Baltics; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Albania: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix analyzes causes and consequences of real exchange rate appreciation in Albania. The paper highlights that Albania has experienced a sustained real appreciation since 1992, which appears to have been brought about by largely beneficial developments: price liberalization, productivity growth, external inflows, and a successful stabilization policy. The pace of appreciation has slowed in the last few years, and a real depreciation in 2002 has brought the real effective exchange rate back to its January 2000 level.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; enterprise; government; public goods; government performance; firm timetable; private sector; shadow economy need; tax collection; Informal economy; Exports; Real effective exchange rates; Public employment; Real exchange rates; Europe