Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Topic

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Europe > Latvia, Republic of

You are looking at 1 - 7 of 7 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Production; Economic theory x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Latvia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper discusses potential growth and its drivers for Latvia 6 years after the growth turnaround and presents projections for the medium term. As the labor force is projected to decline, implementation of policies to increase investment and support total factor productivity (TFP) growth will be essential to ensure income convergence going forward. The level of potential growth has direct consequences for Latvia’s convergence path. Latvia’s GDP per capita was about 62 percent of the EU-15 average in 2015. A better understanding of potential output is important for policy setting. For example, an estimate of the output gap enters the fiscal reaction function through the cyclical adjustment of the fiscal balance and therefore directly influences policy makers’ assessments of whether fiscal policy should respond to deviations from potential. Potential output is an elusive concept and can be defined in various ways. Potential output is generally defined according to the Okun concept as the level of output consistent with stable inflation, while short-run deviations of actual from potential output, due to the slow adjustment of wages and prices to shocks, reflect the output gap—or economic slack.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Latvia; capital stock; support total factor productivity; IMF staff calculation; statistics Latvia; PF approach; imputed TFP series; Total factor productivity; Potential output; Output gap; Capacity utilization; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Estonia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes income convergence and medium-term growth potential for Estonia. Estonia’s potential growth is projected to average some 3 percent over the next five years and 2.75 percent over the next two decades, implying continued income convergence with European Union levels, albeit at only half its historical pace. A number of policy enhancements could lift growth above this central projection. These include a greater operational policy focus on raising productivity growth, scaling up a number of envisaged pro-growth programs, supporting the upgrading of traditional industries as a second leg of innovation policy, and fully restoring Estonia’s high investment.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; TFP growth; labor force; potential GDP; structural unemployment; capital stock; unemployment rate; Total factor productivity; Aging; Productivity; Western Europe; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; Global; growth record; FDI inflow; R&D expenditure; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; qualification mismatch; Labor force participation
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Latvia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This note presents estimates of potential growth and the output gap in Latvia. The estimates suggest that the output has marked below potential in the early 2000s but the output gap becomes positive and large after EU accession. With unemployment still well above its natural level, the output gap is estimated to be negative in 2012, but is expected to narrow gradually and be closed in the next 3–4 years. Potential growth is expected to be substantially lower than in 2002–07.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; estimate; labor market; output gap estimate; crisis; unemployment gap; vocational education; output gap in Latvia; Output gap; Potential output; Unemployment rate; Labor markets; Europe; Baltics; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Cross-Country Incidence of the Global Crisis
Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti
and
Mr. Philip R. Lane
We examine whether the cross-country incidence and severity of the 2008-2009 global recession is systematically related to pre-crisis macroeconomic and financial factors. We find that the pre-crisis level of development, increases in the ratio of private credit to GDP, current account deficits, and openness to trade are helpful in understanding the intensity of the crisis. International risk sharing did little to shield domestic demand from the country-specific component of output declines, while those countries with large pre-crisis current account deficits saw domestic demand fall by much more than domestic output during the crisis.
Keywords:
WP; demand growth; crisis country; economic activity; financial crisis; dependent variable; foreign exchange; real GDP
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bulgaria: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
Bulgaria’s potential output growth in future could be markedly lower, and it may take considerable time for the excess labor and resources to be absorbed by other sectors, in particular by the export sector. This suggests that the natural level of rate of unemployment will rise and remain higher, and the full employment level is likely to decline. There is a requirement of significant improvements in labor productivity and competitiveness, as well as reforms to further improve labor mobility and participation.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Bulgaria; exchange rate appreciation; exchange rate; output gap estimate; appreciation market shares; appreciation in Bulgaria; investment boom; GDP ratio; Real exchange rates; Loans; Output gap; Europe; Global; Baltics; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bulgaria: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper on Bulgaria investigates possible driving forces behind the investment boom based on cross-country evidence. The diagnosis of the drivers behind the investment boom is important as it is key to assessing Bulgaria’s economic prospects, vulnerabilities, and policy challenges. The available evidence is less than clear-cut, but broadly suggests that the investment boom reflects to a large extent a one-off reassessment of Bulgaria’s riskiness as an investment location. The paper also investigates why Bulgaria’s GDP growth rate did not respond more strongly to the investment boom.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Bulgaria; investment; investment boom; GDP growth; investment goods; output gap change; absorption gap; GDP ratio; revenue-GDP ratio; Fiscal stance; Bank credit; Output gap; Stock markets; Loans; Baltics; Europe; Eastern Europe; Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Latvia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper assesses whether Latvia’s strategy to enter ERM2 and adopt the euro is appropriate. The paper examines the possibility of an exchange rate misalignment from various perspectives. It considers different notions of the real effective exchange rate and competitiveness; deviations of the exchange rate from statistically defined equilibrium concepts; and the possibility that central bank foreign exchange interventions have maintained the exchange rate artificially away from equilibrium. The paper finds little evidence of a major misalignment. The paper also analyzes modeling inflation in Latvia.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; exchange rate; deficit; revenue elasticity; fiscal policy stance; GDP assumption; price level; production function approach; Credit; Fiscal stance; Exchange rates; Inflation; Potential output; Baltics; Eastern Europe