Europe > Latvia, Republic of

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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the extent of corruption in Ukraine compared with other countries. The level of corruption in Ukraine is exceptionally high. This could severely undermine economic growth prospects by hindering private investment. Reducing corruption is therefore essential to speed economic convergence with the rest of Europe. Regional comparisons help identify best practices in reducing corruption. The Ukrainian authorities have recently adopted key measures that follow some of these best practices. The country is, however, facing several challenges, including the concentration of political and economic power in a small group of people, which may hamper effective anticorruption efforts.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper reviews recent developments in growth and employment in Bulgaria and highlights key constraints to growth suggested by cross-country competitiveness studies. Bulgaria’s GDP has grown substantially since economic and financial stabilization in 1997. The global economic crisis had a major effect on Bulgarian growth and employment. After falling by 5½ percent in 2009, real GDP has grown at a low rate, and by 2012 real GDP was still 3 percent short of its 2008 level. However, employment growth was negative during 2009–2012, and the first small uptick occurred only in 2013.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes household savings ratio in Spain. The household savings ratio has fallen to its lowest historical rate in 2012, as households cut back savings to support consumption in response to negative income shocks. Household savings fell across all households, but the declines were likely more material among lower income and highly indebted groups. Declining household income and savings slowed deleveraging and put household balance sheets under pressure. Looking ahead, households may need to restrain consumption further to free resources for repaying debt. Household savings rates will likely stay below historical levels for some time then slowly increase.
Mauricio Soto
,
Frank Eich
, and
Mr. Benedict J. Clements
Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.
International Monetary Fund
The labor market remains weak, disinflation has slowed, but falling wages are improving competitiveness. The weak economic environment is putting pressure on the banking sector. Financial conditions have deteriorated recently because of international financial market tensions. The Bank of Latvia has strengthened its liquidity management framework. Program implementation remains broadly on track. Strengthening the Ministry of Finance’s control over fiscal decisions is crucial. The government needs to accelerate Mortgage and Land Bank’s restructuring and facilitate market-based debt resolution. Program implementation to date has helped insulate Latvia from the recent international financial market turmoil.
Mrs. Delia Velculescu
Traditional fiscal indicators focused on measures of current deficits and debt miss the potentially important implications of current policies for future public finances. This could be problematic, including in the case of Europe, where population aging is expected to pose additional fiscal costs not captured by such indicators. To better gauge the state of public finances in the EU27 countries, this paper derives forward-looking fiscal measures of intertemporal net worth both directly from the European Commission’s Aging Working Group’s long-run indicators and using a comprehensive public-sector balance sheet approach. These measures could be used as an "early warning" mechanism and also as a communication device with the public. Current estimates indicate that, on existing policies, the intertemporal net worth of the EU27 is deeply negative, even in excess of its GDP level, and is projected to worsen further over time. This suggests that Europe’s current policies need to be significantly strengthened to bring future liabilities in line with the EU governments’ capacity to generate assets.
International Monetary Fund
This paper presents key findings of the Financial System Stability Assessment of the Republic of Estonia. The Estonian financial sector is highly concentrated and foreign owned. Financial indicators suggest a sound banking sector, and show particular strength in asset quality and earnings. The paper reveals that the Estonian banking sector has significant vulnerabilities from its real-estate lending. The rapid expansion of the banking sector has been funded, to a large extent, by short-term foreign borrowing from parent banks, making Estonia vulnerable to a disruption in international financial markets.
Niamh Sheridan
,
Mr. Alfred Schipke
,
Ms. Susan M George
, and
Mr. Christian H. Beddies

Abstract

In just over a decade after independence, the three Baltic countries, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, have transformed themselves into fully functioning, small open-market economies that will be joining the European Union. Capital Markets and Financial Intermediation in The Baltics analyzes the financial systems of the three countries and discusses some of their unique characteristics. The study also examines current distortions of the systems and discusses whether or not the Baltics should move from an almost exclusively bank-based system to one that relies more on capital markets. In the process, it addresses issues of corporate governance and regional integration.

International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix investigates the reasons for the large, recurrent external current account deficits in Slovakia, which are unusual by the current standards of other advanced transition economies. The paper examines the implications for external sustainability and reviews the causes of the widening in the external deficit from 2001. It discusses Slovakia’s competitiveness and estimates a range for the external current account deficit that could be sustainable in the medium term.
Mr. Jerald A Schiff
,
Mr. Axel Schimmelpfennig
,
Mr. Niko A Hobdari
, and
Mr. Roman Zytek

Abstract

This paper provides an overview of efforts in the Baltic countries to reform their pension systems, and examines the choices facing these countries in their continued reform efforts. Early reforms were aimed at correcting the flaws of the inherited Soviet system and, in particular, at shoring up the finances of the pension systems and reducing their distortionary impact. The Baltic countries have been in the forefront of transition economies in their pursuit of pension reform. They have taken important steps to shore up the long-run financial health of their existing pension funds and made preparations for the implementation of a three-pillar scheme. Although a move toward a fully funded pension system can potentially make an important contribution to the objectives of pension reform, such a change is neither necessary nor sufficient to meet these goals. The existing PAYG pension system can, at least in theory, be made sustainable by an appropriate adjustment of payroll tax rates and expected lifetime pension benefits, although the average replacement rate implied by such changes may well be fairly low, reflecting the expected demographic developments.