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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper reviews recent developments in growth and employment in Bulgaria and highlights key constraints to growth suggested by cross-country competitiveness studies. Bulgaria’s GDP has grown substantially since economic and financial stabilization in 1997. The global economic crisis had a major effect on Bulgarian growth and employment. After falling by 5½ percent in 2009, real GDP has grown at a low rate, and by 2012 real GDP was still 3 percent short of its 2008 level. However, employment growth was negative during 2009–2012, and the first small uptick occurred only in 2013.
International Monetary Fund
Latvia’s economy continues to recover, but the worsening global outlook is likely to hurt growth. Implementation of the program has made the economy more robust to shocks, but risks remain that could derail the recovery and the goal of euro adoption. Spillovers from the euro area crisis could increase—reducing growth and increasing capital outflows—and complicate plans to tap international capital markets. The authorities’ macroeconomic strategy has centered on substantial wage and price cuts and productivity growth to improve competitiveness and reduce external imbalances.
Ms. Beatrice Weder
and
Mr. Peter Cornelius
A transition from a centrally planned to a market economy implies a massive reallocation of resources requiring realignments in relative prices, which may have important distributional effects. This paper examines the extent to which income differentials have changed in countries where bold reforms have been introduced. Discussing the experience in the Baltic states, it finds that—largely due to a significant increase in the dispersion of earnings—recorded income differentials in these countries have widened markedly and that the redistributive effects of social assistance and tax policies have been only marginal.