Europe > Latvia, Republic of

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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines the reasons behind Lithuania’s low tax-GDP ratio relative to the European Union (EU). At end-2015, Lithuania had nearly the lowest tax-GDP ratio in the EU, along with Bulgaria and Romania. The tax revenue shortfall relative to the EU is for the most part attributable to weak tax administration and tax policy, with the structure of the economy playing a secondary role. The second largest contribution to the tax revenue shortfall relative to the EU comes from social security contributions. The shortfall is driven primarily by the structure of the economy, and to a smaller extent by tax administration.
Mr. Christian H Ebeke
and
Greetje Everaert
While the unemployment rate in the Baltics has fallen sharply from its crisis-peaks, it remains close to double digits. This paper estimates the structural component of the jobless rate in the three Baltic countries and analyzes its causes. Our main findings are that the current still elevated levels of unemployment mostly reflect structural factors. We then turn to why structural unemployment is so high. This paper points to skill mismatches, high tax wedges, and unemployment and inactivity traps as potential causes.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2014 Cluster Consultation report examines common themes and challenges facing the three Baltic countries—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. It identifies common features and common challenges, and discusses policies—both national and joint—that could help to address these challenges. The Baltic economies have performed well during the last two decades. The global financial crisis exposed vulnerabilities that had built up in the Baltics, but the postcrisis recovery revealed inherent strengths as well. This report highlights that national policies are necessary to address all of the challenges, but collaboration is also important in some areas.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on the Baltic model, Baltic–Nordic links, and convergence. The Baltic countries form a distinct group within a tightly integrated Nordic–Baltic region. They are following similar approaches to economic policy, broadly in line with those of Northern European and the Anglo-Saxon countries. Their macroeconomic policies are generally robust. The paper examines the possible causes of the creditless recoveries in the Baltic countries. It characterizes their experience in comparison with other episodes of creditless recoveries in both advanced and emerging market economies, and also investigates demand and supply constraints to credit expansion in the Baltics.
International Monetary Fund
In Lithuania, the case for complementing the on going fiscal adjustment with revenue measures is strong. In addition to supporting the adjustment, options to raise revenue need to be tailored to enhance growth and export competitiveness. International and empirical evidence suggest important scope for revenue-enhancing tax reforms in Lithuania. Lithuania is in a position to rebalance growth towards exports. Executive Directors suggest a broad tax reform strategy that could raise revenue and tax new revenue sources while supporting growth, competitiveness, and equity to substantially bolster revenues.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper on the Republic of Lithuania discusses structure of the financial sector, banking system vulnerabilities, and challenges. Rapid credit growth has been channeled into consumer and real estate lending, and is increasingly financed by foreign borrowing. The financial soundness indicators (FSIs) suggest a sound banking system, but may be lagging measure for financial system health. The current stress tests do not include a scenario with an economy-wide recession that could describe broader systemic risks to the banking system.
Mr. Ricardo Varsano
,
Kevin Kim
, and
Mr. Michael Keen
One of the most striking tax developments in recent years, and one that continues to attract considerable attention, is the adoption by several countries of a form of "flat tax." Discussion of these quite radical reforms has been marked, however, more by assertion and rhetoric than by analysis and evidence. This paper reviews experience with the flat tax, seeking to redress the balance. It stresses that the flat taxes that have been adopted differ fundamentally, and that empirical evidence on their effects is very limited. This precludes simple generalization, but several lessons emerge: there is no sign of Laffer-type behavioral responses generating revenue increases from the tax cut elements of these reforms; their impact on compliance is theoretically ambiguous, but there is evidence for Russia that compliance did improve; the distributional effects of the flat taxes are not unambiguously regressive, and in some cases they may have increased progressivity, including through the impact on compliance; adoption of the flat tax has not resolved common challenges in taxing capital income; and it may have strengthened, not weakened, the automatic stabilizers. Looking forward, the question is not so much whether more countries will adopt a flat tax as whether those that have will move away from it.