Europe > Latvia, Republic of

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Mantas Dirma
and
Jaunius Karmelavičius
Despite having introduced borrower-based measures (BBM), Lithuania's housing and mortgage markets were booming during the low-interest-rate period, casting doubt on the macroprudential toolkit's ability to contain excessive mortgage growth. This paper assesses the adequacy of BBMs’ parametrization in Lithuania. We do so by building a novel lifetime expected credit loss framework that is founded on actual loan-level default and household income data. We show that the BBM package effectively contains mortgage credit risk and that housing loans are more resilient to stress than in the preregulatory era. Our BBM limit calibration exercise reveals that (1) in the low-rate environment, income-based measures could have been tighter; and (2) borrowers taking out secondary mortgages rightly are and should be required to pledge a higher down payment.
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
This paper presents a regional report on Nordic-Baltic technical assistance project: financial flows analysis, Anti-Money Laundering and combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) Supervision, and Financial Stability. The purpose of the project is to conduct an analysis of cross-border ML threats and vulnerabilities in the Nordic-Baltic region—encompassing Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, and Sweden (the Nordic-Baltic Constituency or NBC)—and issue a final report containing recommendations for mitigating the potential risks. The financial flows analysis presented in this report is based on the IMF staff’s analysis of cross-border payments data. Six out of the eight Nordic-Baltic countries have seen an increase in aggregate flows since 2013. Monitoring cross-border financial flows provides countries with a deeper understanding of their external ML threat environment and evolving cross-border related risks they are facing. Leveraging broader analysis of ML/TF cross-border risk, the Nordic-Baltic countries should develop their own understanding of higher-risk countries reflecting country-specific ML/TF threats.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The euro area (EA) bank resolution and crisis management arrangements have been strengthened considerably over recent years, but work remains to complete and unify the regime. The adoption of the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD) and the Single Resolution Mechanism Regulation (SRMR), and the establishment of the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) and the Single Resolution Mechanism (SRM) provide a foundation to deal with problem banks. The authorities remain committed to completing the banking union through the establishment of a backstop for the Single Resolution Fund (SRF) and a European deposit insurance scheme (EDIS) and other measures, many of which are in line with recommendations in this report.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper evaluates observance of the Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision in the Russian Federation. The legal framework currently in place provides the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) with necessary powers and responsibilities. The CBR may authorize banks, conduct ongoing supervision, oversee compliance with laws, and undertake corrective action to address safety and soundness. Major new reforms increase many aspects of the CBR’s duties and powers, although implementation has not yet been tested in all cases. The Russian licensing regime for banks appears exhaustive. However, the legal regime for major acquisitions was found to be weak.
Mr. Shekhar Aiyar
,
Mr. Wolfgang Bergthaler
,
Jose M Garrido
,
Ms. Anna Ilyina
,
Andreas Jobst
,
Mr. Kenneth H Kang
,
Dmitriy Kovtun
,
Ms. Yan Liu
,
Mr. Dermot Monaghan
, and
Ms. Marina Moretti
Europe’s banking system is weighed down by high levels of non-performing loans (NPLs), which are holding down credit growth and economic activity. This discussion note uses a new survey of European country authorities and banks to examine the structural obstacles that discourage banks from addressing their problem loans. A three pillared strategy is advocated to remedy the situation, comprising: (i) tightened supervisory policies, (ii) insolvency reforms, and (iii) the development of distressed debt markets.
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

This evaluation assesses the IMF’s response to the global financial and economic crisis, focusing on the period September 2008 through 2013. It assesses the IMF’s actions to help contain the crisis and navigate a global recovery, assist individual economies to cope with the impact of the crisis, and identify and warn about future risks.

International Monetary Fund
The Research Summaries in the March 2014 Research Bulletin focus on efficiency of health expenditure (Francesco Grigoli and Javier Kapsoli) and employment growth in European Union countries (Bas B. Bakker and Li Zeng). The Q&A article looks at “Seven Questions on Financial Interconnectedness” (Co-Pierre Georg and Camelia Minoiu). The Research Bulletin also includes a listing of IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore. Information on the IMF Economic Review—the research journal of the IMF—is also provided.
International Monetary Fund
Latvia’s economy continues to recover, but the worsening global outlook is likely to hurt growth. Implementation of the program has made the economy more robust to shocks, but risks remain that could derail the recovery and the goal of euro adoption. Spillovers from the euro area crisis could increase—reducing growth and increasing capital outflows—and complicate plans to tap international capital markets. The authorities’ macroeconomic strategy has centered on substantial wage and price cuts and productivity growth to improve competitiveness and reduce external imbalances.
Ms. Deniz O Igan
and
Marcelo Pinheiro
We examine the risks to bank soundness associated with credit booms in a large set of countries. Using bank-level data in 90 countries between 1995 and 2005, we analyze the relationship between credit growth and bank soundness taking into account the potential two-way causality. We find that, while sounder banks tend to grow faster at moderate-growth periods, credit growth becomes less dependent on soundness during booms. These findings shed some light on why credit booms are often associated with financial crises.
International Monetary Fund
This paper evaluates the IMF’s exchange rate analysis since the 2008 TSR. It focuses on the evolution of methods, the quality of the IMF‘s multilateral and bilateral exchange rate analysis, the evenhandedness and transparency of this analysis, and the need to improve the coverage and integration of external stability assessments.