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  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy x
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Alice Fan
,
Bingjie Hu
,
Sadhna Naik
,
Neree C.G.M. Noumon
, and
Keyra Primus
This paper identifies and quantifies the drivers of inflation dynamics in the three Baltic economies and assesses the effectiveness of fiscal policy in fighting inflation. It also analyzes the macroeconomic impact of inflation on competitiveness by focusing on the relationship between wages and productivity in the tradeable sector. The results reveal that inflation in the Baltics is largely driven by global factors, but domestic demand matters as well, suggesting that fiscal policy can play a role in containing inflation. Also, there is robust evidence of a long-run (cointegration) relationship between (real) wages in the tradeable (manufacturing) sector and productivity in the Baltics with short-term deviations self-correcting in Estonia and Lithuania only.
Mr. Adalbert Knöbl
and
Mr. Richard D Haas
The paper is an economic history of the IMF’s involvement in the Baltic states. It describes and analyzes the initial economic stabilization; the period of consolidation and recovery; the effects of the Russian crisis of 1998; and the current growth phases of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. There is also an assessment of cooperation with the Fund based on interviews with a number of ex-officials. The major conclusion is that the Baltics have been so successful because of their early commitment to change the stabilization and reform policies needed for successful transition, and their ownership of their IMF-supported programs.
Mr. Andres Sutt
,
Mr. Basil B. Zavoiceo
, and
Mr. Adalbert Knöbl
This paper reviews the history of the introduction of the Estonian kroon under a currency board arrangement. On June 20, 1992, Estonia became the first country from the former Soviet Union to abandon the Russian ruble and introduce its own currency. The paper looks at the factors behind this decision and discusses the implementation of the currency reform. It then assesses the economic impact of the reform and also compares Estonia's experience with that of its Baltic neighbors. It concludes that although the currency board arrangement made an important contribution to the early success of Estonia's economic stabilization and reform program, the underlying financial and structural policies were crucial for that success.
Mr. Tapio Saavalainen
The Baltic countries began their stabilization and reform process in earnest in mid-1992. During the first two and a half years of reform, these countries have made significant progress in macroeconomic stabilization. Financial policies were tight, inflation was brought down, and by 1994, the output decline had bottomed out and recovery was under way. The paper analyzes the key aspects of this adjustment process in a comparative framework. Apart from comparing the Baltic stabilization programs themselves, major features of their fiscal adjustment, price, and output stabilization are related to the Central European experience. Factors that could explain the good performance in the Baltic countries are suggested and key aspects of an adjustment process typical for an exchange-rate-based stabilization and money-based stabilization, respectively, are discussed. The paper argues that in light of the Baltic experience the credibility of stabilization policies has been of greater importance than the choice of the exchange rate regime per se. Moreover, the cost of disinflation in terms of lost output was limited and short lived.