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Europe > Latvia, Republic of

You are looking at 1 - 5 of 5 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Business Fluctuations; Cycles x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Is Inflation Good for Business? The Firm-Level Impact of Inflation Shocks in the Baltics, 1997-2021
Serhan Cevik
,
Alice Fan
, and
Sadhna Naik
Using a large panel of firm-level data, this paper provides an analysis of how inflation shocks in the Baltics between 1997 and 2021 affected total factor productivity (TFP), gross profitability, and net fixed investment in nonfinancial sectors. First, we find that inflation and inflation volatility had mixed effects on TFP growth, profitability and net fixed investment in the first year as well as over the medium term, albeit at a dissipating rate. Second, focusing on subsamples, we find that inflation shocks had differential effects on large versus small firms. Third, we explore sectoral heterogeneity in how firms responded to inflation shocks and observe significant variation across tradable and non-tradable sectors. Finally, estimates from a state-dependent model suggest that firms’ response to inflation shocks varied with the state of the economy. The results suggest that nonfinancial firms in the Baltics have been agile in adjusting to inflation shocks, possibly by either transferring higher production costs to consumers or substituting inputs. Given the differences in the level and nature of the recent inflation shock and the sample period on which our analysis is based, empirical findings presented in this paper might not necessarily apply to the latest bout of inflation in the Baltics.
Keywords:
Inflation; firm performance; productivity; profitability; fixed investment; Baltics; Estonia; Latvia; Lithuania; inflation shock; inflation volatility; IMF working paper No. 24/43; nonfinancial firm; impact of inflation; affected total factor productivity; Total factor productivity; Economic recession
Cover IMF Working Papers
Far More Than a Shot in the Arm: Vaccines and Consumer Spending
Mr. Serhan Cevik
The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and government interventions have reshaped economic activity with abrupt changes in household consumption behavior across the world. This paper provides an empirical investigation of how the COVID-19 vaccine rollout has affected consumer spending at daily frequency using debit and credit card transactions in three European countries. Empirical results show that COVID-19 vaccinations, along with other policy interventions, have mitigated the severe negative impact of the pandemic and boosted consumer spending. First, the vaccination deployment has a statistically and economically significant positive effect on private consumption. Second, other policy responses to the pandemic—designed to contain the spread of the virus and provide support to businesses and households—have significant effects on the amount and composition of debit and credit card transactions. Third, the impact of COVID-19 vaccinations in terms of stimulating consumer spending appears to be more pronounced on contact-intensive sectors such as services than goods.
Keywords:
Pandemic; COVID-19; vaccination; household behavior; consumer spending; card transactions; Baltics; Estonia; Latvia; Lithuania; vaccine rollout; credit card transactions; vaccination deployment; government intervention; vaccination effort; Consumer credit; Household consumption
Cover IMF Working Papers
Show Me the Money: Tracking Consumer Spending with Daily Card Transaction Data During the Pandemic
Mr. Serhan Cevik
The COVID-19 pandemic has been an unprecedented shock to economic activity with abrupt and unexpected changes in household consumption behavior. This paper investigates how the spread of the pandemic and government interventions have affected consumer spending using daily card transaction data in the Baltics. The analysis shows significant effects on the amount and composition of debit and credit card transactions. First, the number of new COVID-19 infections or deaths has a strongly negative effect. Second, while public health measures designed to contain the spread of the pandemic has a negative effect, economic support measures designed to assist businesses and households have a stimulative effect. Third, there is heterogeneity across spending categories, but the drop is mostly concentrated in sectors that are restricted by lockdowns and the risk of infection. Fourth, the impact of government interventions, especially in terms of stimulating consumer spending, appears to be more pronounced on goods than services.
Keywords:
Pandemic; consumer spending; card transactions; Baltics; Estonia; Latvia; Lithuania; euro area; transition economies; household consumption behavior; credit card transactions; stimulating consumer spending; government intervention; consumer spending pattern; credit card transaction data; COVID-19; Consumer credit; Consumption; Household consumption
Cover IMF Working Papers
Unemployment Surges in the EU: The Role of Risk Premium Shocks
Mr. Bas B. Bakker
,
Marta Korczak
, and
Mr. Krzysztof Krogulski
In the last decade, over half of the EU countries in the euro area or with currencies pegged to the euro were hit by large risk premium shocks. Previous papers have focused on the impact of these shocks on demand. This paper, by contrast, focuses on the impact on supply. We show that risk premium shocks reduce the output level that maximizes profit. They also lead to unemployment surges, as firms are forced to cut costs when financing becomes expensive or is no longer available. As a result, all countries with risk premium shocks saw unemployment surge, even as euro area core countries managed to contain unemployment as firms hoarded labor during the downturn. Most striking, wage bills in euro area crisis countries and the Baltics declined even faster than GDP, whereas in core euro area countries wage shares actually increased.
Keywords:
WP; risk premium shock; risk premium; interest rate; GDP; Risk premia; interest rates; Euro area crisis; global economic; fincanial crisis; debt ratio; risk premium surge; unemployment surge; financing cost; Return on investment; Unemployment; Employment; Sovereign bonds; Baltics
Cover IMF Working Papers
Does Supply or Demand Drive the Credit Cycle? Evidence from Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe
Greetje Everaert
,
Ms. Natasha X Che
,
Ms. Nan Geng
,
Bertrand Gruss
,
Gregorio Impavido
,
Miss Yinqiu Lu
,
Christian Saborowski
,
Mr. Jerome Vandenbussche
, and
Mr. Li Zeng
Countries in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) experienced a credit boom-bust cycle in the last decade. This paper analyzes the roles of demand and supply factors in explaining this credit cycle. Our analysis first focuses on a large sample of bank-level data on credit growth for the entire CESEE region. We complement this analysis by five case studies (Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, Poland, and Romania). Our results of the panel data analysis indicate that supply factors, on average and relative to demand factors, gained in importance in explaining credit growth in the post-crisis period. In the case studies, we find a similar result for Lithuania and Montenegro, but the other three case studies point to the fact that country experiences were heterogeneous.
Keywords:
WP; credit growth; demand and supply; credit demand; credit supply; parent bank; Credit; Eastern Europe; Disequilibrium Model; bank characteristic; excess supply; asset quality; excess demand; credit to household; demand and supply factor; bank funding; demand development; Consumer credit; Credit booms; Loans; Bank credit; Global; Baltics