Europe > Latvia, Republic of

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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Fiscal expansion after euro accession led to a buildup of large economic imbalances, and a program to make fiscal policy and the fiscal and debt position sustainable was initiated. However, the program saw opposition from the outset and structural reforms stalled, which unsettled the investment climate. The Greek government’s determination to push ahead with reforms has seen progress in fiscal adjustment and perseverance of the financial sector. However, the social cost of the recession has been very high, and the current program can only succeed if policymakers address the root causes.
International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews the design of conditionality in Fund-supported programs from 2002 to end-September 2011, with an emphasis on recent years. It focuses on the content and application of program conditionality—especially structural conditionality—in relation to the 2002 Conditionality Guidelines (the "Guidelines"), the Staff Statement on Principles Underlying the Guidelines on Conditionality, and subsequent revisions to operational guidance on conditionality. The analysis is based on the five key interrelated principles guiding the design of conditionality: national ownership of programs, parsimony in program-related conditions, tailoring to country circumstances, effective coordination with other multilateral institutions, and clarity in the specification of conditions. In particular, the principle of parsimony requires that program-related conditions be critical (or the minimum necessary) to achieve program objectives and goals, critical for monitoring program implementation, or necessary for implementing specific provisions under the Articles of Agreement (the "criticality criterion"). Beyond assessing compliance with these guidelines and principles, the paper also examines the implementation of conditionality
International Monetary Fund
The staff report for the 2008 Article IV Consultation of Romania reviews the issues to tighten fiscal policy, putting less of the stabilization burden on the fledgling inflation-targeting framework. GDP growth has remained strong, underpinned by massive capital inflows. Executive Directors observed that large capital inflows related to Romania’s accession to the European Union, compounded by procyclical fiscal policies, have contributed to booms in domestic demand and credit and emerging capacity constraints. They recommended that structural reform efforts be relaunched to support per capita income convergence to EU levels.
Mr. Athanasios Vamvakidis
The emerging European economies have been converging rapidly towards the more advanced European economies in recent years. However, large external imbalances in parts of the region have raised questions about sustainability and concerns about vulnerabilities. Empirical evidence in this paper suggest that the convergence trend of emerging Europe is based on strong fundamentals and is expected to continue, but at a slower pace. Moreover, the convergence path may be volatile as countries with large external imbalances adjust, with risks of a hard landing in some cases.
Mr. Adalbert Knöbl
and
Mr. Richard D Haas
The paper is an economic history of the IMF’s involvement in the Baltic states. It describes and analyzes the initial economic stabilization; the period of consolidation and recovery; the effects of the Russian crisis of 1998; and the current growth phases of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. There is also an assessment of cooperation with the Fund based on interviews with a number of ex-officials. The major conclusion is that the Baltics have been so successful because of their early commitment to change the stabilization and reform policies needed for successful transition, and their ownership of their IMF-supported programs.
International Monetary Fund
This 1999 Article IV Consultation highlights that macroeconomic developments in Latvia were severely affected by the Russian economic crisis. Real GDP declined by 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 1998, and further contraction is estimated for the first quarter of 1999. As a consequence, the rate of unemployment rose to 10.1 percent in May, up from 7 percent a year earlier. Meanwhile, inflation has continued to fall amid continued tight monetary policy and weak domestic demand, reaching 1.9 percent in May.