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International Monetary Fund
Balance sheets convey vital information about economic prospects and risks. Balance sheet analysis captures the role that financial frictions and mismatches play in creating fragility and amplifying shocks. This is key to understanding the macroeconomic outlook, identifying vulnerabilities, and tracing the transmission of potential shocks and policies. This paper reviews the use of balance sheet analysis in the Fund’s bilateral surveillance and introduces some practical examples of how it can be deepened. Recent evaluations of IMF surveillance––including the 2014 TSR––have emphasized the importance of strengthening balance sheet analysis and coverage of macro-financial issues. This paper is a first step that highlights useful examples of such analysis conducted by staff over the last decade, documents the data and tools that have been used, and mentions some limitations. In addition, it discusses recent improvements in the coverage and quality of balance sheet data through initiatives launched in the wake of the global crisis, as well as key remaining gaps, addressing which requires international collaboration.
International Monetary Fund
This paper addresses core challenges that all tax administrations face in dealing with noncompliance—which are now receiving renewed attention. Long a priority in developing countries, assuring strong compliance has acquired greater priority in countries facing intensified revenue needs, and is critical for fairness and statebuilding. Series: Policy Papers
International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews the design of conditionality in Fund-supported programs from 2002 to end-September 2011, with an emphasis on recent years. It focuses on the content and application of program conditionality—especially structural conditionality—in relation to the 2002 Conditionality Guidelines (the "Guidelines"), the Staff Statement on Principles Underlying the Guidelines on Conditionality, and subsequent revisions to operational guidance on conditionality. The analysis is based on the five key interrelated principles guiding the design of conditionality: national ownership of programs, parsimony in program-related conditions, tailoring to country circumstances, effective coordination with other multilateral institutions, and clarity in the specification of conditions. In particular, the principle of parsimony requires that program-related conditions be critical (or the minimum necessary) to achieve program objectives and goals, critical for monitoring program implementation, or necessary for implementing specific provisions under the Articles of Agreement (the "criticality criterion"). Beyond assessing compliance with these guidelines and principles, the paper also examines the implementation of conditionality
International Monetary Fund
Design of Fund-supported programs aims to address country specific needs while remaining even-handed and consistent with Fund policy. This paper examines the extent to which program design and conditionality have been appropriate in pursuing these goals, by seeking to answer several questions: has program design been consistent and evenhanded; has it addressed country specific needs and objectives appropriately; has it been based on reasonably good macroeconomic projections; and has it been flexible in the face of evolving country circumstances. The description and analysis focuses on the period between 2006 and September 2011, with some attention to the 2002-05 period.
International Monetary Fund
The possible global repercussions from the ongoing turmoil in the Euro Area and recent calls for enhanced emergency assistance in the Middle East and North African region are reminders of the urgent need for a more effective global financial safety net to deal with increased interconnectedness and volatility. Past work by staff identified gaps in the Fund’s lending toolkit to respond to liquidity needs of members with relatively strong fundamentals affected during systemic crises (the crisis bystanders), and to address urgent financing needs arising in a broader range of circumstances than natural disasters and post-conflict situations. The companion paper on the Review of the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) and Precautionary Credit Line (PCL) also identified gaps in the overall flexibility of the financing toolkit. This paper provides proposals to fill these gaps, while preserving the simplicity and coherence of the lending framework, and balancing members’ financing needs against the need for adequate safeguards for the use of Fund resources.
International Monetary Fund
This paper evaluates the IMF’s exchange rate analysis since the 2008 TSR. It focuses on the evolution of methods, the quality of the IMF‘s multilateral and bilateral exchange rate analysis, the evenhandedness and transparency of this analysis, and the need to improve the coverage and integration of external stability assessments.
International Monetary Fund
This study concludes that recent Fund-supported programs in emerging market countries are delivering the kind of policy response and financing needed to cushion the blow from the worst global crisis since the 1930s. While the crisis has had a profound effect on output and employment, especially in those countries starting with large external vulnerabilities, many of the severe disruptions attending previous crises—currency overshooting and bank runs—have so far been avoided. Internalizing lessons from the past, programs have responded to country conditions and adapted to worsening economic circumstances to attenuate contractionary forces. As a result, signs of stabilization are emerging in program countries, though there remain challenges to secure sustained recovery in a number of countries.
International Monetary Fund
In the context of the ongoing review of Fund facilities, this paper examines the analytical basis for Fund lending in emerging market countries and provides a broad-ranging perspective for reforming the General Resources Account (GRA) lending toolkit. The Fund’s important lending role in crisis prevention and resolution is buttressed by its unique characteristics: (i) its ability as a nonatomistic lender to provide large-scale financing and reduce the likelihood of a run by private creditors; (ii) its ability as a cooperative institution with near-universal membership to agree conditionality with members, thus providing national authorities with a policy commitment tool to underpin confidence and catalyze private lending; and (iii) its de facto preferred creditor status, which allows it to provide crisis financing when private creditors may be reluctant to lend.
International Monetary Fund
This paper takes a fresh look at the purpose and modalities of conditionality for the use of the Fund’s resources. It is part of a broader review of Fund lending facilities that includes access levels, charges and maturities, the analytical basis for Fund lending, and facilities for low income countries. It aims to explore options for more flexible approaches that would be responsive to the changing needs and circumstances of the Fund’s members while providing adequate safeguards for Fund resources. While these options have been developed with General Resources Account (GRA) facilities in mind as a complement to the companion paper on the analytical framework, they could apply, as appropriate, to facilities and instruments used by low income members.