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Europe > Latvia, Republic of

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bulgaria: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
Bulgaria’s potential output growth in future could be markedly lower, and it may take considerable time for the excess labor and resources to be absorbed by other sectors, in particular by the export sector. This suggests that the natural level of rate of unemployment will rise and remain higher, and the full employment level is likely to decline. There is a requirement of significant improvements in labor productivity and competitiveness, as well as reforms to further improve labor mobility and participation.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Bulgaria; exchange rate appreciation; exchange rate; output gap estimate; appreciation market shares; appreciation in Bulgaria; investment boom; GDP ratio; Real exchange rates; Loans; Output gap; Europe; Global; Baltics; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Resolution of Banking Crises: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
Mr. Luc Laeven
and
Mr. Fabian Valencia
This paper presents a new database of systemic banking crises for the period 1970-2009. While there are many commonalities between recent and past crises, both in terms of underlying causes and policy responses, there are some important differences in terms of the scale and scope of interventions. Direct fiscal costs to support the financial sector were smaller this time as a consequence of swift policy action and significant indirect support from expansionary monetary and fiscal policy, the widespread use of guarantees on liabilities, and direct purchases of assets. While these policies have reduced the real impact of the current crisis, they have increased the burden of public debt and the size of government contingent liabilities, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability in some countries.
Keywords:
WP; bank; crisis; banking crisis; asset; financial institution
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Credit Boom in the EU New Member States: Bad Luck or Bad Policies?
International Monetary Fund
In the past decade, most of the EU New Member States experienced a severe credit-boom bust cycle. This paper argues that the credit boom-bust cycle was to a large extent the result of factors external to the region (“bad luck”). Rapid credit growth followed from a high liquidity in global markets and the particular attractiveness of “new Europe” for capital flows, while the end of the credit cycle was brought about by a global crisis. However, the fact that some countries managed to avoid most of the excesses, including asset price bubbles and foreign exchange lending, suggests that policies and policy failures (“bad policies”)—in particular overly expansionary macroeconomic settings and excessively optimistic views on prudential risks—also have played a critical role.
Keywords:
WP; credit growth; credit boom; foreign exchange; nominal exchange rate; parent bank
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Latvia: Second Review and Financing Assurances Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement, Request for Extension of the Arrangement and Rephasing of Purchases Under the Arrangement and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance and Applicability of Performance Criteria
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses key findings of the Second Review and Financing Assurances Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement for Latvia. The sharp economic downturn is starting to bottom out, although recovery has not yet begun. The authorities have implemented the June 2009 supplementary budget, and met with a wide margin the end-September performance criterion on the adjusted primary balance. The continuous performance criterion on external payments arrears was missed by a small amount, which the authorities expect to resolve soon.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GDP; government liquidity support; end-December performance criterion; financial market condition; Latvia; IMF's support; IMF's financial support; Fiscal stance; Loans; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Estonia: Staff Report for the 2009 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund
This 2009 Article IV Consultation highlights that the credit-fueled boom has resulted in a relatively large nonfinancial private sector debt stock in Estonia. With declining incomes, unemployment increasing sharply, and asset prices depressed, balance sheets of households and firms are under strain, weighing on domestic demand. Nonperforming loans have increased to more than 6 percent of total, and some banks are reporting losses. Executive Directors have supported the authorities’ aim toward speedy adoption of the euro, noting its effects in fostering stability and confidence.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; debt; BoE balance-sheet data; Estonia; quarter; inflation rate; value; staff appraisal; interbank interest rate differential; statement report; Maastricht reference value; C. government finance statistics; Income; Fiscal stance; Financial derivatives; Global; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Latvia: First Review and Financing Assurances Review Under the Stand By Arrangement, Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Rephasing of Purchases Under the Arrangement
International Monetary Fund
The Latvian authorities have strengthened their intervention capacity, financial supervision, and monitoring framework, and have taken steps to contain risks in Parex Bank. The staff report reviews the Republic of Latvia’s economic developments and policies. Substantial progress has been achieved in stabilizing the financial sector. The collapse in output has revealed significant underlying fiscal weaknesses that risk leading to unsustainable deficits in the absence of strong corrective measures. The deeper downturn is also in part explained by the much worse-than-projected international environment.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Latvia; Republic of Latvia executive board meeting; CPI inflation rate; surplus; macroeconomic strategy; Latvia's economy; IMF's support; consumer price inflation; Budget planning and preparation; Government debt management; Fiscal stance; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Review of Recent Crisis Programs
International Monetary Fund
This study concludes that recent Fund-supported programs in emerging market countries are delivering the kind of policy response and financing needed to cushion the blow from the worst global crisis since the 1930s. While the crisis has had a profound effect on output and employment, especially in those countries starting with large external vulnerabilities, many of the severe disruptions attending previous crises—currency overshooting and bank runs—have so far been avoided. Internalizing lessons from the past, programs have responded to country conditions and adapted to worsening economic circumstances to attenuate contractionary forces. As a result, signs of stabilization are emerging in program countries, though there remain challenges to secure sustained recovery in a number of countries.
Keywords:
PP; current account; interest rate; fiscal policy; debt ratio; foreign currency; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Currencies; Fiscal stance; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Review of Fund Facilities-Analytical Basis for Fund Lending and Reform Options
International Monetary Fund
In the context of the ongoing review of Fund facilities, this paper examines the analytical basis for Fund lending in emerging market countries and provides a broad-ranging perspective for reforming the General Resources Account (GRA) lending toolkit. The Fund’s important lending role in crisis prevention and resolution is buttressed by its unique characteristics: (i) its ability as a nonatomistic lender to provide large-scale financing and reduce the likelihood of a run by private creditors; (ii) its ability as a cooperative institution with near-universal membership to agree conditionality with members, thus providing national authorities with a policy commitment tool to underpin confidence and catalyze private lending; and (iii) its de facto preferred creditor status, which allows it to provide crisis financing when private creditors may be reluctant to lend.
Keywords:
PP; Fund financing; Fund lending; Fund resource; private sector; Fund crisis lending; commitment fee; prevention instrument; Crisis prevention; Capital account crisis; Balance of payments need; Crisis resolution; Options; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Decoupling from the East Toward the West? Analyses of Spillovers to the Baltic Countries
International Monetary Fund
This paper uses VAR models to examine the magnitude and sources of growth spillovers to the Baltics from key trading partners, as well asfrom the real effective exchange rate (REER). Our results show there are significant cross-country spillovers to the Baltics with those from the EU outweighing spillovers from Russia. Shocks to the REER generally depress growth in the Baltics, and this intensifies over time. We also find that financial and trade channels dominate the transmission of spillovers to the region which partly explains the realization of downside risks to the Baltics from the global slowdown.
Keywords:
WP; GDP; Lithuania; Latvia; price
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Latvia: Stand-By Arrangement: Interim Review Under the Emergency Financing Mechanism
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses key findings of the Stand-By Arrangement–Interim Review under the Emergency Financing Mechanism for the Republic of Latvia. Financial market pressures in Latvia have eased somewhat since program approval: deposit outflows have slowed and the exchange rate has moved off the weaker end of its band. However, new risks are emerging. The recession has intensified, facilitating external adjustment but lowering tax revenues. Though sizable, fiscal policy adjustment has fallen short of commitments in the program, owing to weaknesses in implementation and difficulties in reducing local government expenditure.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; GDP; wage bill; forward rate; Parex management; core inflation; end-December data; trading partner depreciation; bank profit; Loans; Global