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Law > Business and Financial

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Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Navigating Trade-Offs between Price and Financial Stability in Times of High Inflation
Romain Bouis
,
Damien Capelle
,
Giovanni Dell'Ariccia
,
Christopher J. Erceg
,
Maria Soledad Martinez Peria
,
Mouhamadou Sy
,
Ken Teoh
, and
Jerome Vandenbussche
Trade-offs between price and financial stability can occur when inflation is above target and financial stress is rising. Use of central bank liquidity tools and other financial stability policies may, under some circumstances, allow central banks to maintain their inflation fighting stance, while addressing financial stress. However, challenges in deploying these tools and specific country characteristics may hinder central banks’ ability to achieve both price and financial stability. In such circumstances, central banks should account for financial stress increasing downside risks to activity, allow for slower disinflation using monetary policy flexibility, and communicate that deviations from the medium-term inflation target are temporary. Countries with weak central bank credibility, high exposure to exchange rate movements, and limited fiscal space face extra challenges in managing these trade-offs and might have to rely on foreign exchange interventions, macroprudential policies, capital flow measures, and international liquidity tools.
Keywords:
Monetary Policy; Financial Stability; Policy Coordination; monetary policy tightening; liquidity from the discount window; monetary policy flexibility; resolution framework; asset purchase; Financial sector stability; Price stabilization; Inflation; Liquidity; Global
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Burundi: Technical Assistance Report-Financial Sector Stability Review
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
In response to a request from the Bank of the Republic of Burundi (BRB), the Monetary and Capital Markets Department (MCM) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) carried out a Financial Sector Stability Review (FSSR) mission from January 31 through February 13, 2024. The FSSR performed a diagnostic assessment of the financial system oversight framework, reviewed progress in implementing the technical assistance (TA) recommendations of 2019–2024, and developed a draft Technical Assistance Roadmap (TARM) to improve financial system stability by strengthening the BRB’s capacity. The mission identified three main macro-financial vulnerabilities: (i) the difficulty of assessing credit quality following the boom in lending in 2021–2022, worsened by the non-adherence to the International Financial Reporting Standard 9 (IFRS9) and to the rules on credit risk from the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS); (ii) the risk related to exchange rate depreciation; and (iii) the sovereign-banks nexus. Moreover, given the concentration of assets (large exposures) and liabilities (deposits), prudential rules and regulations should be more rigorously applied and such concentration should be given greater consideration in supervision and stress tests. The report recommends strengthening the BRB’s supervisory capacity before enhancing prudential regulations, and addressing systemic risks through improved stress testing and a strengthened crisis management framework. Implementing these recommendations will bolster financial stability and support economic growth.
Keywords:
FSSR; financial sector regulation; financial sector supervision; crisis management; financial safety net; financial stability; nonperforming loans; sovereign-banks nexus; exchange rate depreciation; Burundi.; IMF's Monetary; oversight framework; B. financial system structure; BRB's capacity; representative office team; Financial sector stability; Stress testing; Credit; Bank resolution framework; Sub-Saharan Africa; Southern Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Malaysia: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2025 Article IV Consultation highlights that Malaysia’s economic performance has improved significantly in 2024. Disinflation is taking hold and external pressures have eased. The favorable economic conditions provide a window of opportunity to build macroeconomic policy buffers and accelerate structural reforms, especially as risks to growth are tilted to the downside amid an uncertain global outlook. Risks to the inflation outlook are tilted to the upside, including from global commodity price shocks and potential wage pressures. Malaysia’s financial sector remains sound. Banks’ capital and liquidity positions are robust. Credit growth, corporate and household balance sheets, and real-estate markets do not pose systemic risks at this juncture. Timely implementation of the authorities’ ambitious structural reform agenda remains essential for enhancing productivity and inclusive growth. Given the need to cushion the negative impacts of fiscal reforms on the poor and vulnerable, staff welcomes the progress made to develop the Pangkalan Data Utama digital registry, which can help strengthen social safety nets and public service delivery.
Keywords:
upside inflation risk; Malaysia's obligation; asset forfeiture regime; upside risk; upside growth risk; Inflation; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Credit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
India: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Financial System Stability Assessment
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper highlights Financial System Stability Assessment report of India’s Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). India’s financial system has withstood the pandemic well and has become more resilient since the 2017 FSAP. Nonbank financial institutions—especially nonbank financial companies (NBFCs) providing credit with wholesale financing—and market financing have grown, making the financial system more diverse and interconnected. The role of the state has diminished, yet it remains significant, including in using the financial system to pursue social and public finance goals. Banks and NBFCs are generally resilient to severe macrofinancial solvency and liquidity shocks, but some banks, particularly public sector banks, may need to strengthen their capital base to support lending in such situations. The authorities should manage potential systemic risks from concentrated exposures. The regulations of state-owned NBFCs should be aligned with those of the private sector, especially given that state-owned NBFCs are currently exempt from large exposure limits.
Keywords:
market financing; coverage ratio; NBFC liquidity stress test result; policy option; liquidity support; FSAP finding; Financial sector stability; Nonbank financial institutions; Credit; Mutual funds; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Global
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Papua New Guinea: Technical Assistance Report-Financial Sector Stability Review
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The main objective of the FSSR diagnostic mission was to help the PNG authorities build a roadmap of technical assistance (TA) to address identified financial sector needs and gaps, with a view to strengthen resilience of financial institutions and to enhance the policy framework. The PNG FSSR diagnostic covered six areas: (i) macroprudential policy; (ii) regulation and supervision of banks and other deposit-taking financial institutions; (iii) regulation and supervision of insurance companies and pension funds; (iv) financial safety net and crisis preparedness framework; (v) financial market infrastructure; and (vi) financial sector statistics.
Keywords:
Financial sector stability; IMF MCM; Macro-financial risk; PNG FSSR TA roadmap.; IMF's Monetary; FSSF phase; FSSR recommendation; payment system oversight function department; IMF executive directors; BPNG's management; investment strategy; bridge bank authority; Macroprudential policy; Insurance; Payment systems; Global
Cover High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reports
Grenada: Systemic Risk Monitoring
Petr Jakubik
The technical assistance aimed to build capacity to monitor and assess systemic risk for non-bank financial institutions in the Grenada Authority for the Regulation of Financial Institutions (GARFIN). The mission underlined the need to clarify the macroprudential mandate and cooperation with the ECCB to conduct the macroprudential work accordingly. A potential extension of the existing Annual Report and Accounts covering key financial stability indicators and their assessment could be considered. It further highlighted the need to revise the existing reporting templates to reflect systemic risk better. Finally, the important role of the data management system was underlined.
Keywords:
contagion risk; pension balance sheets; IMF capacity development recipient; Systemic risk assessment; Financial sector stability; Financial sector risk; Stress testing; Caribbean
Cover Departmental Papers
Navigating External Shocks in Southeast Asia's Emerging Markets: Key Lessons and Challenges in Applying the IMF’s Integrated Policy Framework
Corinne C Delechat
,
Umang Rawat
, and
Ara Stepanyan
As relatively small open economies, South-East Asian emerging markets (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand or ASEAN-4) are highly susceptible to external shocks—both financial and real—that could induce large capital flows and exchange rate volatility that could lead to foreign exchange market dysfunction. With the exception of Bank Negara Malaysia, ASEAN-4 central banks mostly have flexible inflation-targeting frameworks for monetary policy implementation. Their main policy objectives include medium-term price stability, sustainable economic growth, and financial stability. Central Banks in ASEAN-4 economies have been early pilots in the operationalization of the IMF’s Integrated Policy Framework (IPF) in 2022-23, given their experience in using multiple policy tools besides the monetary policy rate, including macroprudential measures, foreign exchange intervention (FXI), and capital flow management measures, to achieve their multiple objectives. They have welcomed the IPF as a systematic, frictions-based approach to analyze the use of these multiple tools to manage trade-offs across policy objectives. This paper takes stock of the experience from these pilots, both from the perspective of country authorities and of IMF country teams. It aims at distilling key lessons, which could be used to inform broader IPF operationalization. The IPF conceptual framework and a related quantitative model were used to assess policy trade-offs in ASEAN-4 in the event of adverse external shocks. These applications reaffirmed the importance of using monetary policy to address persistent inflationary pressures stemming from real shocks and allowing the exchange rate to act as a shock absorber. However, a complementary use of FXI could improve trade-offs between price, financial, and output stability when economies are faced with large and financial shocks that result in abrupt spikes in uncovered interest rate parity premia resulting in inefficiently tight financial conditions that could hurt growth or risking to de-anchor inflation expectations. The IPF pilots also highlighted some challenges faced when operationalizing IPF principles, notably regarding the assessment of frictions and shocks that might justify the use of FXI. In particular, country teams at times lacked sufficient information to adequately assess the extent of frictions. Moreover, the time-varying nature of IPF frictions and the non-linear effects of shocks make it difficult to assess situations when benefits of a complementary use of FXI would overweigh its costs.
Keywords:
ASEAN; foreign- exchange intervention; Inflation targeting; Integrated policy framework; capital flows; IPF pilot; market dysfunction; IMF country team; IPF model; Policy mix; IMF seminar participant; Currency markets; Exchange rates; Inflation; Southeast Asia; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
South Africa: Post-Financing Assessment-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents South Africa’s Post-Financing Assessment report. The new government of national unity that took office in June faces significant challenges, including declining real per capita growth, high unemployment, poverty, and inequality, and a rising level of public debt. The new administration has committed to address these challenges by continuing ongoing structural reforms aimed at addressing supply constraints and bolstering inclusive growth, while maintaining fiscal discipline. Monetary policy should carefully manage the descent of inflation to the mid-point of the target range and stay data dependent. The report recommends that policies should focus on bolstering inclusive growth and restoring fiscal sustainability, while managing the descent of inflation to target and safeguarding financial stability. Monetary policy should stay data dependent and rate cuts be considered only after inflation declines sustainably toward the midpoint of the target range. The authorities should continue to monitor financial sector risks, including those related to the bank-sovereign nexus, and enhance supervision and prudential regulations.
Keywords:
U.S. dollar; inflation decline; government operation; per-capita GDP figure; Policy discussion; IMF's transparency policy; IMF team; Fiscal stance; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Saudi Arabia: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Financial System Stability Assessment
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper highlights Saudi Arabia’s Financial System Stability Assessment as part of Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). The FSAP took place against the backdrop of a robust economy driven by an ambitious state-led transformation agenda to accelerate Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification (Vision 2030). The Kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund plays a key role in implementing and funding the economic transformation. At present, financial sector risks from the rapid economic transformation appear contained. Banks are well-capitalized, profitable and appear resilient to severe macroeconomic shocks. Banks’ capacity to manage liquidity stress scenarios is generally good, although funding concentration is sizable. The authorities have made commendable efforts to mitigate risks from the rapidly growing credit and real estate market, but significant data gaps create challenges for systemic risk monitoring. The time is right to strengthen systemic risk monitoring and the legal, institutional, and operational frameworks in support of financial stability going forward.
Keywords:
B. bank stress tests; liquidity stress scenario; liquidation framework; coverage ratio; mission chief World Bank; World Bank FSAP team member; Financial sector stability; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Macroprudential policy; Commercial banks; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
ليبيا: قضايا مختارة
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
قضايا مختارة
Keywords:
ليبيا : قضايا مختارة