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Law > Business and Financial

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Cover Shocks and Capital Flows
Shocks and Capital Flows
Policy Responses in a Volatile World

Abstract

The high exposure of open economies to shocks makes them particularly vulnerable to volatile capital flows and advanced economy monetary policy spillovers. How should and do domestic policymakers respond? The traditional answer has been to use flexible exchange rates as a shock absorber. But flexible exchange rates may not offer full insulation when financial markets are imperfect. This book brings together recent empirical studies at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the effectiveness of different tools in responding to such shocks. The 18 chapters in this volume provide a rich background to the recently launched Integrated Policy Framework by the IMF. They comprise assessments of countries’ actual use of different tools, as well as in-depth evaluations of their effectiveness and side effects, covering macroprudential policies, monetary policy, foreign-exchange intervention, and capital flow management policies. Many of the studies involve new data and methods to tackle the inherently difficult problems in identifying and comparing the effects of policies under different circumstances. As a result, the volume offers the reader a comprehensive, in-depth coverage of the policy-oriented empirical research that has informed the development of a new way of thinking about open-economy macroeconomics at the IMF.

Keywords:
Capital flows; monetary policy; exchange rate policy; foreign exchange intervention; macroprudential policy; capital controls; FX debt; account restrictiveness; exchange rate intervention; IT regime; Exchange rates; Macroprudential policy instruments; Global; Asia and Pacific; Caribbean; Central America; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Trinidad and Tobago: Technical Assistance Report–Technical Assistance on Fintech Regulation and Legislation
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The paper presents Trinidad and Tobago’s technical assistance (TA) on fintech regulation and legislation. The impact of fintech in Trinidad and Tobago is currently concentrated in the payments sector. This report covers the three areas where TA was provided by the mission team. The current e-money framework and licensing process can be further enhanced. The report recommends that authorities should carry out a feasibility study with an aim of improving the JIH, but a RS should not be a priority. The authorities should also conduct an impact assessment for legal and regulatory reforms to assist them in the development of a strategy for crypto assets. An impact assessment should evaluate the costs and benefits of legal and regulatory action in the context of the relative importance of crypto assets activities in the country, and the existence of competing legislative and regulatory priorities. Other alternatives, such as a detailed legal regime, or using exemptions to accommodate the needs of new activities, present more disadvantages, such as the lengthy and cumbersome legislative process or the lack of a legal basis for the use of general exemptions.
Keywords:
IMF's MCM; Department mission; authorities of Trinidad and Tobago; private sector entity; request of the Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago; crypto assets regulation; Virtual currencies; Fintech; Digital currencies; Securities; Securities regulation; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Finland: Financial System Stability Assessment
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents Finland’s Financial System Stability Assessment report. Finland has further improved the regulation and supervision of its financial sector since the 2016 Financial Sector Assessment Program, in part driven by European legislation and institutions. The size of the banking sector increased significantly in 2018 with the redomicilation of Nordea. Finland weathered the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic well relative to other economies, with fiscal support and interventions from the authorities. However, Finland is now navigating a weaker economic outlook given the war in Ukraine and ensuing energy crisis, despite limited direct financial exposures to Russia. Risks to financial stability come from a large banking sector, which is highly concentrated and dominated by a few institutions, and is interconnected with other financial systems in the Nordic region. Stress tests indicate that the banking system appears resilient to severe macro-financial shocks but remains vulnerable to liquidity shocks. Resolution and crisis management should be supported by greater coordination of authorities’ preparation and management of future crises.
Keywords:
MoSAH FIN-FSA; PIC solvency regulation; independence of the FIN-FSA; SREP assessment; FIN-FSA's independence; B. banking sector resilience; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Macroprudential policy; Credit; Financial sector stability; Baltics; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Strengthening Bank Regulation and Supervision: National Progress and Gaps
Ljubica Dordevic
,
Caio Ferreira
,
Moses Kitonga
, and
Katharine Seal
The paper employs two complementary strategies. First, it is pursues textual analysis (text mining) of the assessment reports to identify successes and challenges the authorities are facing. Second, it analyzes the grades in the Basel Core Principles assessments, including their evolution and association with bank fragility.
Keywords:
Bank Supervision; Bank Regulation; Basel Accords; Basel Core Principles; Global Financial Crisis; Prudential Requirements; credit risk; liquidity standard; bank capital adequacy; Basel III capital; liquidity risk; liquidity shock; risk assessment; liquidity reserve; liquidity reform; capital conservation buffer; liquidity strain; COVID-19; Corporate governance; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Trinidad and Tobago: Press Release; Financial System Stability Assessment; and Statement by the Executive Director for Trinidad and Tobago
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The FSAP work was mostly conducted prior to the COVID-19 crisis. Given the FSAP’s focus on medium-term challenges and tail risks, its findings and recommendations for strengthening policy and institutional frameworks remain pertinent. As the growth projections were significantly revised downward since the FSAP, the quantitative risk analysis on bank solvency was complemented to include illustrative scenarios to quantify the possible implications of the COVID-19 shock on bank solvency.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank; FSAP work; FSAP mission; FSSA report; CBTT plan; supervisory effectiveness; regulatory power; Commercial banks; Insurance companies; Mutual funds; COVID-19; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Fiji: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Fiji
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2019 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Fiji highlights that economic activity slowed sharply in 2019 due to lower government spending, tighter domestic financial conditions, weak sentiment, and the global deceleration. The slowdown followed several years of relatively strong growth, boosted by reconstruction spending after a major cyclone in 2016, which resulted in rising external and fiscal imbalances. Fiscal space is now at risk and external vulnerabilities remain significant. Fiji has large investment needs to strengthen resilience to natural disasters and climate change. A key priority should be to rebuild fiscal buffers in a growth-friendly way to create space to respond to future natural disasters and to ensure public debt sustainability. Fiscal consolidation should focus on reining in current spending given limited scope for further revenue mobilization and the need for capital spending to improve resilience to climate change. Improvements in the business environment and in governance are essential to raise potential growth and boost private investment, and to enhance productivity and competitiveness.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; authority; Fiji; economy; Fijian authorities; Fijian economy; priority investment; growth outlook; long-term climate action plan; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Government debt management; Credit bureaus; Global; Pacific Islands; International reserves
Cover FinTech Notes
Institutional Arrangements for Fintech Regulation and Supervision
Mr. Charles R Taylor
,
Christopher Wilson
,
Eija Holttinen
, and
Anastasiia Morozova
Fintech developments are shaking up mandates within the existing regulatory architecture. It is not uncommon for financial sector agencies to have multiple policy objectives. Most often the policy objectives for these agencies reflect prudential, conduct and financial stability policy objectives. In some cases, financial sector agencies are also allocated responsibility for enhancing competition and innovation. When it comes to fintech, countries differ to some extent in the manner they balance the objectives of promoting the development of fintech and regulating it. Countries see fintech as a means of achieving multiple policy objectives sometimes with lesser or greater degrees of emphasis, such as accelerating development and spurring financial inclusion, while others may support innovation with the objective of promoting competition and efficiency in the provision of financial services. This difference in emphasis may impact institutional structures, including the allocation of staff resources. Conflicts of interest arising from dual roles are sometimes managed through legally established prioritization of objectives or establishment of separate internal reporting lines for supervision and development.
Keywords:
FTN; fintech firm; fintech unit; Fintech development; fintech issue; fintech policy objective; fintech development; Fintech responsibility; fintech innovation; Fintech; Institutional arrangements for revenue administration; Financial sector; Global; Fintech regulation; SupervisionInstitutional arrangement; arrangements for Fintech regulation
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Morocco: First Review Under the Arrangement Under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Morocco
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses Morocco’s First Review Under the Arrangement Under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL). The Moroccan authorities are committed to sustaining sound policies. The government’s economic program remains in line with key reforms agreed under the PLL arrangement, including to further reduce fiscal and external vulnerabilities, while strengthening the foundations for higher and more inclusive growth. The transition to greater exchange rate flexibility initiated in 2018 is expected to enhance the economy’s capacity to absorb shocks and preserve its external competitiveness. The current favorable economic environment remains supportive to continue this reform in a carefully sequenced and well-communicated manner. The report recommends that continued reforms are needed to raise potential growth and reduce high unemployment levels, especially among the youth, increase female labor participation, and reduce regional disparities. Reforms of education, governance, the labor market, and the business environment would help support more private sector-led growth and job creation.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; policy; The Article IV consultation discussion; authority; current account; reform; article IV consultation discussion; article IV report; PLL qualification criteria; IMF's executive board; policy implementation; Loans; Global; Africa; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Australia: Financial System Stability Assessment
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper presents Financial System Stability Assessment of Australian financial systems. The report highlights that financial supervision and systemic risk oversight have been enhanced. And the authorities have taken successful policy action to calm rapid growth in riskier segments of the mortgage market. Restrictions on the growth of investor loans and the share of interest-only mortgages, as well as the introduction of stronger lending standards, appear to have led to a slowdown in mortgage credit growth, and the housing market is now cooling. Financial supervision shows generally high conformity to international best practices, although there are opportunities to close identified gaps and strengthen arrangements. Steps are recommended to bolster the independence and resourcing of the regulatory agencies, by removing constraints on their policy making powers and providing additional budgetary autonomy and flexibility. The paper explains that greater formalization and transparency of the work of the Council of Financial Regulators would further buttress the financial stability framework.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; financial system; banking sector; housing market; monetary policy; financial condition; capital requirement; mid-sized bank; resolution modality; asset quality; loan portfolio; bank exposure; Systemic risk; Financial sector stability; Credit; Housing prices; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands—Curaçao and Sint Maarten: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Weak growth and underlying structural vulnerabilities persist in both Curaçao and Sint Maarten. Worsened macroeconomic conditions—reflecting the spillovers from one of Curaçao’s largest trading partners and the devastation from Hurricanes Irma and Maria in Sint Maarten—make the need for policy adjustment and structural reforms aimed at ensuring fiscal sustainability, enhancing competitiveness, strengthening investor confidence, and developing capacity more urgent.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; discussion; real GDP; government; IMF staff estimate; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; growth in Curaçao; positions of Curaçao; finance of Curaçao; Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal space; Caribbean; Global