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Law > Business and Financial

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Malaysia: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Malaysia’s economic performance has significantly improved in 2024, supported by strong domestic and external demand. Disinflation is taking hold and external pressures have eased. The favorable economic conditions provide a window of opportunity to build macroeconomic policy buffers and accelerate structural reforms, especially as risks to growth are tilted to the downside amid an uncertain global outlook. Risks to the inflation outlook are tilted to the upside, including from global commodity price shocks and potential wage pressures.
Keywords:
upside inflation risk; Malaysia's obligation; asset forfeiture regime; upside risk; upside growth risk; Inflation; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Credit; Global
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Papua New Guinea: Technical Assistance Report-Financial Sector Stability Review
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The main objective of the FSSR diagnostic mission was to help the PNG authorities build a roadmap of technical assistance (TA) to address identified financial sector needs and gaps, with a view to strengthen resilience of financial institutions and to enhance the policy framework. The PNG FSSR diagnostic covered six areas: (i) macroprudential policy; (ii) regulation and supervision of banks and other deposit-taking financial institutions; (iii) regulation and supervision of insurance companies and pension funds; (iv) financial safety net and crisis preparedness framework; (v) financial market infrastructure; and (vi) financial sector statistics.
Keywords:
Financial sector stability; IMF MCM; Macro-financial risk; PNG FSSR TA roadmap.; IMF's Monetary; FSSF phase; FSSR recommendation; payment system oversight function department; IMF executive directors; BPNG's management; investment strategy; bridge bank authority; Macroprudential policy; Insurance; Payment systems; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Navigating External Shocks in Southeast Asia's Emerging Markets: Key Lessons and Challenges in Applying the IMF’s Integrated Policy Framework
Corinne C Delechat
,
Umang Rawat
, and
Ara Stepanyan
As relatively small open economies, South-East Asian emerging markets (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand or ASEAN-4) are highly susceptible to external shocks—both financial and real—that could induce large capital flows and exchange rate volatility that could lead to foreign exchange market dysfunction. With the exception of Bank Negara Malaysia, ASEAN-4 central banks mostly have flexible inflation-targeting frameworks for monetary policy implementation. Their main policy objectives include medium-term price stability, sustainable economic growth, and financial stability. Central Banks in ASEAN-4 economies have been early pilots in the operationalization of the IMF’s Integrated Policy Framework (IPF) in 2022-23, given their experience in using multiple policy tools besides the monetary policy rate, including macroprudential measures, foreign exchange intervention (FXI), and capital flow management measures, to achieve their multiple objectives. They have welcomed the IPF as a systematic, frictions-based approach to analyze the use of these multiple tools to manage trade-offs across policy objectives. This paper takes stock of the experience from these pilots, both from the perspective of country authorities and of IMF country teams. It aims at distilling key lessons, which could be used to inform broader IPF operationalization. The IPF conceptual framework and a related quantitative model were used to assess policy trade-offs in ASEAN-4 in the event of adverse external shocks. These applications reaffirmed the importance of using monetary policy to address persistent inflationary pressures stemming from real shocks and allowing the exchange rate to act as a shock absorber. However, a complementary use of FXI could improve trade-offs between price, financial, and output stability when economies are faced with large and financial shocks that result in abrupt spikes in uncovered interest rate parity premia resulting in inefficiently tight financial conditions that could hurt growth or risking to de-anchor inflation expectations. The IPF pilots also highlighted some challenges faced when operationalizing IPF principles, notably regarding the assessment of frictions and shocks that might justify the use of FXI. In particular, country teams at times lacked sufficient information to adequately assess the extent of frictions. Moreover, the time-varying nature of IPF frictions and the non-linear effects of shocks make it difficult to assess situations when benefits of a complementary use of FXI would overweigh its costs.
Keywords:
ASEAN; foreign- exchange intervention; Inflation targeting; Integrated policy framework; capital flows; IPF pilot; market dysfunction; IMF country team; IPF model; Policy mix; IMF seminar participant; Currency markets; Exchange rates; Inflation; Southeast Asia; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
South Africa: Post-Financing Assessment-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents South Africa’s Post-Financing Assessment report. The new government of national unity that took office in June faces significant challenges, including declining real per capita growth, high unemployment, poverty, and inequality, and a rising level of public debt. The new administration has committed to address these challenges by continuing ongoing structural reforms aimed at addressing supply constraints and bolstering inclusive growth, while maintaining fiscal discipline. Monetary policy should carefully manage the descent of inflation to the mid-point of the target range and stay data dependent. The report recommends that policies should focus on bolstering inclusive growth and restoring fiscal sustainability, while managing the descent of inflation to target and safeguarding financial stability. Monetary policy should stay data dependent and rate cuts be considered only after inflation declines sustainably toward the midpoint of the target range. The authorities should continue to monitor financial sector risks, including those related to the bank-sovereign nexus, and enhance supervision and prudential regulations.
Keywords:
U.S. dollar; inflation decline; government operation; per-capita GDP figure; Policy discussion; IMF's transparency policy; IMF team; Fiscal stance; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Saudi Arabia: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Financial System Stability Assessment
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper highlights Saudi Arabia’s Financial System Stability Assessment as part of Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). The FSAP took place against the backdrop of a robust economy driven by an ambitious state-led transformation agenda to accelerate Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification (Vision 2030). The Kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund plays a key role in implementing and funding the economic transformation. At present, financial sector risks from the rapid economic transformation appear contained. Banks are well-capitalized, profitable and appear resilient to severe macroeconomic shocks. Banks’ capacity to manage liquidity stress scenarios is generally good, although funding concentration is sizable. The authorities have made commendable efforts to mitigate risks from the rapidly growing credit and real estate market, but significant data gaps create challenges for systemic risk monitoring. The time is right to strengthen systemic risk monitoring and the legal, institutional, and operational frameworks in support of financial stability going forward.
Keywords:
B. bank stress tests; liquidity stress scenario; liquidation framework; coverage ratio; mission chief World Bank; World Bank FSAP team member; Financial sector stability; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Macroprudential policy; Commercial banks; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Libya: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper identifies the sources and quantifies the exchange market pressures on the Libyan dinar. The paper highlights that: (1) the cumulative pressure on the exchange rate has been negative; and (2) despite the alternating appreciation and depreciation pressures, foreign exchange reserves have remained relatively stable. The authorities’ toolkit is limited: they strive to maintain the stock of reserves at a high level and to keep the exchange rate peg intact, all without the use of fiscal policy or of conventional monetary policy instruments. Therefore, developing conventional monetary policy tools and making sure that fiscal policy is consistent with the overall macroeconomic objectives would help the authorities achieve their goals without resorting to capital flow measures. While Libya had periods of both depreciation and appreciation pressures, overall, it faced substantial depreciation pressure. In other words, Libya’s policies over the medium term were not in line with the three-pronged macroeconomic objective of maintaining high foreign reserves, a pegged official exchange rate, and a narrow gap between the parallel and the official exchange rates. The findings suggest that additional monetary tools and the use of fiscal policy can help contain the parallel market premium and avoid the use of capital flow measures.
Keywords:
exchange market pressure; EMP index; copyright page; weakening exchange rate; market rate; Currency markets; Exchange rates; International reserves; Depreciation; Eastern Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ecuador: Request for an Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ecuador
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper highlights Ecuador’s Request for an Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). The authorities implemented swift and bold measures in early 2024 to address the fiscal and liquidity challenges and requested a 48-month EFF arrangement of SDR 3 billion to support their policy plans and advance an ambitious structural reform agenda. IMF estimates that IMF resources are needed to close a financing gap of about US$4 billion during the program period, after factoring in an ambitious and large fiscal plan, financial support from international financial institutions and official bilateral partners, and renewed access to international capital markets. The baseline scenario under the program is, however, subject to substantive risks, stemming from both external and domestic factors. IMF assesses that the policy program provides a reasonably strong prospect of success, amid broad support to the main objectives of the EFF arrangement, and strong commitment and capacity by the authorities to take measures to ensure its successful implementation.
Keywords:
EFF arrangement; financing strategy; reform agenda; reform sequencing; peak fund exposure; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Chile: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Chile
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation highlights that macroeconomic imbalances built during the pandemic have been largely resolved, supported by tighter macroeconomic policies deployed during late 2021–22 in Chile. Growth is expected to pick up to close to 2 percent in 2024 and 2–2.5 percent in the medium term. Inflation is projected to converge to the 3-percent target in 2024. Key external risks are the uncertainties around the potentially higher-for-longer interest rates in advanced economies, a growth slowdown in major trading partners, and the intensification of regional conflicts in the world. Policies have supported macroeconomic stability. In the context of disinflation acceleration, the Central Bank of Chile lowered the monetary policy rate by 400 basis points since July 2023. The headline fiscal balance is estimated to decline to about -2.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2023 due to weaker tax revenues amid an economic slowdown, lower copper prices, and other transitory factors. The 2024 budget envisions a moderate deficit reduction within a medium-term fiscal plan to a broadly balanced fiscal position by 2026. The ongoing implementation of the countercyclical capital buffer will strengthen financial resilience in periods of stress.
Keywords:
basket weight; CPI data; CPI calculation methodology; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; money market rate; Fiscal stance; Inflation; Income; Global; Caribbean
Cover Shocks and Capital Flows
Shocks and Capital Flows
Policy Responses in a Volatile World

Abstract

The high exposure of open economies to shocks makes them particularly vulnerable to volatile capital flows and advanced economy monetary policy spillovers. How should and do domestic policymakers respond? The traditional answer has been to use flexible exchange rates as a shock absorber. But flexible exchange rates may not offer full insulation when financial markets are imperfect. This book brings together recent empirical studies at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the effectiveness of different tools in responding to such shocks. The 18 chapters in this volume provide a rich background to the recently launched Integrated Policy Framework by the IMF. They comprise assessments of countries’ actual use of different tools, as well as in-depth evaluations of their effectiveness and side effects, covering macroprudential policies, monetary policy, foreign-exchange intervention, and capital flow management policies. Many of the studies involve new data and methods to tackle the inherently difficult problems in identifying and comparing the effects of policies under different circumstances. As a result, the volume offers the reader a comprehensive, in-depth coverage of the policy-oriented empirical research that has informed the development of a new way of thinking about open-economy macroeconomics at the IMF.

Keywords:
Capital flows; monetary policy; exchange rate policy; foreign exchange intervention; macroprudential policy; capital controls; FX debt; account restrictiveness; exchange rate intervention; IT regime; Exchange rates; Macroprudential policy instruments; Global; Asia and Pacific; Caribbean; Central America; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Fiji: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that Fiji’s economy rebounded strongly in 2022, as tourism recovered rapidly. With the rapid rebound in tourism, the economy is experiencing a strong recovery. Nevertheless, significant risks to growth remain both on the demand side—due to the global outlook—and on the supply side—due to capacity constraints and price competitiveness. The recovery and ongoing broad consultations make the upcoming budget a critical opportunity to begin rebuilding Fiji’s fiscal space and reducing vulnerability. Monetary policy needs to begin shifting now to a more neutral stance, amidst growing uncertainty to the outlook for inflation and foreign reserves. Addressing the implementation challenges of Fiji’s climate plans will require increased efforts and financing. Advancing climate adaptation plans will help Fiji transition to a more sustainable and resilient growth model. Accelerating investments on renewable energy will help Fiji diversify its energy sources and reduce external imbalances. However, Fiji’s climate adaptation and mitigation plans face significant challenges, including shortfalls in climate financing, implementation capacity, and investment management.
Keywords:
maturity proceeds; relocation plan; climate plan; airline ticket sale; CPI data; Government finance statistics; Exchange restrictions; Global; Pacific Islands