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Law > Business and Financial

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ireland: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Banking Supervision
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Note discusses Ireland’s report on Banking Supervision. Supervision of less significant institutions is largely effective in Ireland. The Central Bank’s supervisory approach to LSIs is intrusive and well-developed supervisory tools are appropriately applied. The prudential regulation of banks has improved greatly since the 2016 Financial System Assessment Program. The EU framework has largely managed to embrace international regulatory reforms, following up on the causes of the Global Financial Crisis. The banking supervision has been tested by severe headwinds, with the final outcomes still in play. Supervision went through a period of major challenges for the economy and the financial system, namely from Brexit and the pandemic. The continued effectiveness of banking supervision in Ireland will depend on its success in solving several complicated problems. This note provides the main recommendations to enhance the supervision of the banking activities conducted in Ireland with a direct bearing on its financial stability.
Keywords:
supervision of the banking activity; broker-dealer supervision division; EU banking systems; business model; Central Bank approach; COVID-19; Credit risk; Bank supervision; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
The Bahamas: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for The Bahamas
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The Bahamas is experiencing a tourism-led rebound. Real GDP growth in 2021 was close to 14 percent, as stayover tourist arrivals doubled relative to 2020. The economy is projected to expand by 8 percent in 2022. Nonetheless, it will likely take until 2024 to return to the 2019 level of GDP and the pandemic has given rise to significant human and social costs. The country’s medium-term growth challenges are likely worse than before, and public finances are in a more precarious state. Risks are skewed downwards given a difficult near-term financing situation, rising inflationary—and potentially BOP—pressures because of the war in Ukraine, an ongoing threat from the evolving pandemic, and the country’s high vulnerability to natural disasters.
Keywords:
Bahamian authorities; authorities project; government administration; foreign currency borrowing; IMF's transparency policy; COVID-19; Credit; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
South Africa: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Financial System Stability Assessment
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The economy recovered strongly in 2021, following an unprecedented real output contraction in 2020. However, the outlook remains precarious amidst projected future low growth, high unemployment and adverse debt dynamics, and the recovery pace is unlikely to be sustained. Ample buffers allowed the financial system to handle the COVID-19 shock relatively well, but domestic and external downside risks remain substantial—with potential implications for asset quality, profitability, and solvency.
Keywords:
B. bank solvency stress tests; IMF mission chief; foster market entry; increase capital market financing; coverage ratio; financial system structure; FSAP finding; D. nonbank risk analysis; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Stress testing; Insurance companies; COVID-19; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nepal: Request for an Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility -Press Release; Staff Report; Debt Sustainability Analysis; Staff Supplement; Statement by the Executive Director for Nepal
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted Nepal’s economy. Tourist arrivals collapsed, domestic activity plummeted, and remittances have been volatile. As a result, balance of payments and fiscal financing gaps emerged. After growth was lower than expected in 2019/20, a gradual resumption in economic activity and a corresponding surge in imports and related tax receipts led to higher growth and improved fiscal outturns in 2020/21. However, important fiscal and external financing needs remain to support the COVID-19 response, facilitate a continued recovery, and maintain a comfortable level of reserves.
Keywords:
financing gap; procurement contract; ECF arrangement; November data; import surge; consumer price inflation; COVID-19; Debt relief; Global
Cover IMF How To Notes
How to Implement Strategic Foresight (and Why)
Mr. Alberto Behar
and
Sandile Hlatshwayo
This note explains the value of strategic foresight and provides implementation advice based on the IMF’s experience with scenario planning and policy gaming. Section II provides an overview of strategic foresight and some of its tools. Scenario planning and policy gaming have been the Fund’s main foresight techniques so far, though other tools have been complementary. Accordingly, section III focuses on the scenario planning by illustrating applications before detailing the methods we have been using, while section IV describes policy gaming including the matrix policy gaming approach with which we have experimented so far. Section V summarizes the key points. In so doing, the note extends an invitation to those in the economics and finance fields (e.g., researchers, policymakers) to incorporate strategic foresight in their analysis and decision making.
Keywords:
risk-preparedness framework; Policy game; data IMF Library; guidance note; scenario planning; Futures; Stress testing; Emerging and frontier financial markets; COVID-19; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Strengthening Bank Regulation and Supervision: National Progress and Gaps
Ljubica Dordevic
,
Caio Ferreira
,
Moses Kitonga
, and
Katharine Seal
The paper employs two complementary strategies. First, it is pursues textual analysis (text mining) of the assessment reports to identify successes and challenges the authorities are facing. Second, it analyzes the grades in the Basel Core Principles assessments, including their evolution and association with bank fragility.
Keywords:
Bank Supervision; Bank Regulation; Basel Accords; Basel Core Principles; Global Financial Crisis; Prudential Requirements; credit risk; liquidity standard; bank capital adequacy; Basel III capital; liquidity risk; liquidity shock; risk assessment; liquidity reserve; liquidity reform; capital conservation buffer; liquidity strain; COVID-19; Corporate governance; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Trinidad and Tobago: Press Release; Financial System Stability Assessment; and Statement by the Executive Director for Trinidad and Tobago
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The FSAP work was mostly conducted prior to the COVID-19 crisis. Given the FSAP’s focus on medium-term challenges and tail risks, its findings and recommendations for strengthening policy and institutional frameworks remain pertinent. As the growth projections were significantly revised downward since the FSAP, the quantitative risk analysis on bank solvency was complemented to include illustrative scenarios to quantify the possible implications of the COVID-19 shock on bank solvency.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank; FSAP work; FSAP mission; FSSA report; CBTT plan; supervisory effectiveness; regulatory power; Commercial banks; Insurance companies; Mutual funds; COVID-19; Global; Caribbean