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Law > Business and Financial

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Libya: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper identifies the sources and quantifies the exchange market pressures on the Libyan dinar. The paper highlights that: (1) the cumulative pressure on the exchange rate has been negative; and (2) despite the alternating appreciation and depreciation pressures, foreign exchange reserves have remained relatively stable. The authorities’ toolkit is limited: they strive to maintain the stock of reserves at a high level and to keep the exchange rate peg intact, all without the use of fiscal policy or of conventional monetary policy instruments. Therefore, developing conventional monetary policy tools and making sure that fiscal policy is consistent with the overall macroeconomic objectives would help the authorities achieve their goals without resorting to capital flow measures. While Libya had periods of both depreciation and appreciation pressures, overall, it faced substantial depreciation pressure. In other words, Libya’s policies over the medium term were not in line with the three-pronged macroeconomic objective of maintaining high foreign reserves, a pegged official exchange rate, and a narrow gap between the parallel and the official exchange rates. The findings suggest that additional monetary tools and the use of fiscal policy can help contain the parallel market premium and avoid the use of capital flow measures.
Keywords:
exchange market pressure; EMP index; copyright page; weakening exchange rate; market rate; Currency markets; Exchange rates; International reserves; Depreciation; Eastern Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People’s Republic of China—Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: 2023 Article IV Consultation Discussions-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that the economic recovery in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) stalled in 2022 following a major coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak and U.S. monetary policy tightening. However, in 2023, real gross domestic product is projected to grow by 3.5 percent. The financial system remains resilient and continues to serve as an international financial center, supported by strong institutional frameworks and substantial capital and liquidity buffers. The Linked Exchange Rate System continues to function smoothly, providing a solid anchor to the economy and the financial system, allowing the latter to perform its role as an international financial center. Housing prices, which declined by about 16 percent by end-2022 from the peak in September 2021, have started to recover in early 2023. Near-term risks to the growth outlook are balanced, with systemic risk in the financial sector manageable given significant buffers. A sharper-than-expected global growth slowdown as well as escalation of regional conflicts and resulting disruptions in trade could derail the recovery. A sharp rise in global risk premia amid renewed stress in the global banking system and further tightening of monetary policy in major advanced economies could have adverse spillovers through financial channels.
Keywords:
Hong Kong SAR economy; exchange rate system; rate of HK; GDP compilation; transparency policy; household expenditure survey; Hong Kong SAR authority; Hong Kong SAR official; return on equity; expenditure measure; Housing; External sector statistics; Housing prices; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People's Republic of China-Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Hong Kong SAR’s economy benefitted from a strong cyclical upswing through the first half of 2018, supported by the continued global recovery, buoyant domestic sentiment, and the booming property market. However, near-term risks have significantly increased – including those from trade tensions, tighter global financial conditions, and capital outflows from emerging markets. Also, long-term challenges, including from aging, elevated inequality, and the persistent housing shortage, need to be tackled. Prudent macroeconomic policies and ample buffers are in place to help smoothen the transition and ensure continued stability.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; SAR.; HK dollar; China; authority; convertibility undertaking; IMF staff calculation; business cycle; rate of HK; FX reserve; Housing; Housing prices; External sector statistics; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Regulatory Cycles: Revisiting the Political Economy of Financial Crises
Jihad Dagher
Financial crises are traditionally analyzed as purely economic phenomena. The political economy of financial booms and busts remains both under-emphasized and limited to isolated episodes. This paper examines the political economy of financial policy during ten of the most infamous financial booms and busts since the 18th century, and presents consistent evidence of pro-cyclical regulatory policies by governments. Financial booms, and risk-taking during these episodes, were often amplified by political regulatory stimuli, credit subsidies, and an increasing light-touch approach to financial supervision. The regulatory backlash that ensues from financial crises can only be understood in the context of the deep political ramifications of these crises. Post-crisis regulations do not always survive the following boom. The interplay between politics and financial policy over these cycles deserves further attention. History suggests that politics can be the undoing of macro-prudential regulations.
Keywords:
WP; central bank; financial market; political economy; banking sector; Financial Regulation; Financial Crises; Boom-Bust Cycles; Glass-Steagall Act; financial bubble; ruling party; share price; joint stock; crony capitalism; plain vanilla; stock index; bubble company; joint-stock bank; incumbent governments policy; government sponsorship; Housing; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Banking crises; Global; South America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Palau: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Palau
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Palau’s economy has performed well in recent years. The economy grew strongly in FY2015 (ending September 30, 2015) at 9.4 percent, with tourist arrivals and construction activity expanding by 35 percent. However, the rapid rise in tourism activity strained infrastructure and was tilted toward low budget tourists, which led the authorities to limit the number of charter flights in FY2016. The outlook for Palau is also favorable. Economic growth is expected to slow temporarily to zero in FY2016 as tourist arrivals decline, but to rebound to 5 percent in FY2017 as tourism activity recovers with the entry of new hotels and construction picks up.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; government reform effort; infrastructure investment; Palau; development agenda; government place; private sector development; Tourism; Fiscal stance; Infrastructure; Loans; Fiscal consolidation; Pacific Islands
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Palau: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that after two years of strong expansion, growth is estimated at about zero percent in the fiscal year 2013 (FY2013, ending in September) in the Republic of Palau owing to declines in construction and tourism. Inflation moderated to 2¾ percent (annual average) in FY2013 thanks to stable international food and fuel prices, and it is expected to stay at about 3 percent in FY2014. Growth is projected to increase to 1¾ percent in FY2014 and to 2¼–2½ percent over the medium term driven by the recovery in tourism and infrastructure developments.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; reform; authority; Palau; private sector development; investor confidence; tax reform bill; Palau authorities; PFTAC TA; near-term outlook; Fiscal consolidation; Tourism; Infrastructure; Asia and Pacific; Pacific Islands
Cover IMF Working Papers
Public Financial Institutions in Developed Countries—Organization and Oversight
Mr. Lev Ratnovski
and
Mr. Aditya Narain
While public financial institutions (such as public development banks) are commonly associated with developing countries, in fact they are prevalent in the developed world as well. We study a sample of public financial institutions in industrialized countries and identify dominant trends in their organization and oversight. While practices in developed countries may be a useful reference point, a more nuanced approach, accounting for the disparity of institutional environment, regulatory capacity, and government accountability and effectiveness, may be required in developing countries. Further investment in the accumulation of evidence and formulation of best practices in the organization and oversight of public financial institutions seems warranted and necessary. This paper was prepared while Mr. Ratnovski was working in the Financial Supervision and Regulation Division during January-April 2006. The authors are grateful to Jonathan Fiechter, David Marston, and participants of an MCM seminar in April 2006 for their helpful comments.
Keywords:
WP; public financial institutions; financial market; private bank; ownership structure; bankruptcy procedure; interest rate
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Philippines: Financial Sector Assessment Program-IOSCO Objectives and Principles of Securities Regulation Assessment
International Monetary Fund
This report reviews the Financial Sector Assessment Program of the Philippines on International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) Objectives and Principles of Securities Regulation. The report was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank as part of the Financial Sector Assessment Program for the Philippines. It assesses the effectiveness of securities regulation, soundness of market intermediaries, and development prospects for the capital markets, including observance of the IOSCO Objectives and Principles of Securities Regulation.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; investment house; investment company; PSE rule; regulatory authority; shareholders' meeting; enforcement power; SRC rule; market structure; SEC rule; SEC sanction; SEC form; insider trading; oversight authority; Brokers and dealers; Securities; Securities regulation; Financial statements; Housing