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Edda R Karlsdóttir
,
Rachid Awad
,
Ender Emre
,
Alessandro Gullo
,
Aldona Jociene
, and
Constant Verkoren
This note intends to provide advice to bank supervision and resolution authorities and policymakers seeking to deal with opaque bank ownership or significant overhang of related-party exposures.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper focuses on the technical note on regulation and supervision of less significant institutions in Belgium. The financial sector assessment program (FSAP) undertook a targeted review of Belgium’s Less Significant Institutions (LSI) and third-country branches (TCBs) banking regulation and supervision. The National Bank of Belgium (NBB) and Financial Services and Markets Authority have well-established processes for prudential, product and conduct supervision of LSIs. While NBB’s overall supervisory approach is adequate, the regulatory framework for corporate governance could be enhanced. Internal decision-making processes and the underpinning of certain decision proposal could in some specific instances be enhanced. With regard to NBB’s internal supervisory processes, some fine-tuning and continued attention could be useful. The NBB should continue to ensure adequate staffing for LSI and TCB supervision and continue to carefully consider how to address any supervisory Information Technology risk concerns. Banks’ internal capital target could usefully be added to the NBB’s internal monitoring. A structured approach for conduct risk and consumer protection information sharing with the FSMA and the Ministry of Economic Affairs should be put in place.
Zhuohui Chen
,
Nikolaos Kourentzes
, and
Mr. Romain M Veyrune
Implementing monetary policy largely consists in controlling short-term interest rates which supposes having a good understanding of banks’ demand for liquidity also called “reserves” at the central bank. This work aims to offer a modeling methodology for estimating the demand for reserves that itself is influenced by various macro and market structure variables. The model can help central banks to identify ”stable points” on the demand for reserves, which correspond to the levels of reserves for which the short-term interest rate volatility is minimal. Both parametric and non-parametric approaches are provided, with a particular focus on capturing the modeling uncertainty and, therefore, facilitating scenario analysis. A method is proposed to test the forecasting performances of different approaches and exogenous regressors combination, finding that simpler parametric expressions provide on balance better performances. Adding variables to both parametric and non-parametric provides better explanations and predictions. The proposed methodology is evaluated using data from the Euro system and the US Federal Reserve System.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This technical note analyses the key aspects of the regulatory and supervisory regime for pension funds in Iceland. Pension funds in Iceland play a vital role in the domestic financial sector, acting as investors and lenders. This Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) reviews recent developments and the structure of the Icelandic pension fund sector. This technical note provides context on the Icelandic pension system, focusing in particular on the compulsory occupational scheme in Pillar II, the most important pillar of the system. The pension fund sector is large, well developed, and highly interconnected with the domestic financial system, mainly through exposures toward banks and domestic investment funds. A separate technical note summarizes the results of the risk analysis carried out for the pension fund sector and elaborates more on current market risk sensitivities. The governance and internal controls framework for pension funds is not aligned with the systemic role of the sector, and the underlying rules in the Pension Fund Act pre-date the corresponding provisions for other financial sectors. The Financial Supervisory Authority has adopted a risk-based and forward-looking supervisory model, however there is no minimum frequency set for on-site inspections. The FSAP recommends a strengthening of the legislative framework, especially regarding governance, internal controls and outsourcing.
Mr. José M. Garrido
Tokens are units digitally represented in a distributed ledger or blockchain. The various uses of this technology have the potential to transform a wide array of economic activities, from traditional commercial transactions to sophisticated financial undertakings. This paper explores the similarities and differences of tokens with traditional legal instruments in commercial law and how tokens could offer superior solutions, provided that proper legal foundations are established for their operation, including aspects of the law of securities and consumer protection law.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that the economic recovery in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) stalled in 2022 following a major coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak and U.S. monetary policy tightening. However, in 2023, real gross domestic product is projected to grow by 3.5 percent. The financial system remains resilient and continues to serve as an international financial center, supported by strong institutional frameworks and substantial capital and liquidity buffers. The Linked Exchange Rate System continues to function smoothly, providing a solid anchor to the economy and the financial system, allowing the latter to perform its role as an international financial center. Housing prices, which declined by about 16 percent by end-2022 from the peak in September 2021, have started to recover in early 2023. Near-term risks to the growth outlook are balanced, with systemic risk in the financial sector manageable given significant buffers. A sharper-than-expected global growth slowdown as well as escalation of regional conflicts and resulting disruptions in trade could derail the recovery. A sharp rise in global risk premia amid renewed stress in the global banking system and further tightening of monetary policy in major advanced economies could have adverse spillovers through financial channels.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This technical assistance report on Aruba highlights the financial stability diagnostic and scoping mission. The economy of Aruba is tourist dependent, which is an important source of vulnerability. The major source of risk comes from lending. Banks are increasingly exposed to the real estate market and compete with nonregulated lenders. Residential house prices have increased significantly in some regions since the start of the pandemic driven by strong demand from nonresidential buyers as well as higher construction costs due to coronavirus disease-related supply constraints. The future Financial Stability Department (FSD) is advised to develop a strategy on Macroprudential Policy (MaP). Based on the macroprudential strategy, the FSD should prepare the methodology for the introduction of the MaP instruments chosen as well as ensure the necessary preparations in terms of data collection for this purpose. The data available to the Central Bank of Aruba is sufficient for starting systemic risk monitoring, but some data gaps should be addressed. The monitoring of systemic risk and the development of macroprudential tools requires more granular, frequent, and timely data.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
In response to a request from the Central Bank of the Congo (BCC), the Monetary and Capital Markets Department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) conducted a Financial Sector Stability Review (FSSR) mission virtually, during January 5–28, 2022. The FSSR performed a diagnostic of the financial system, reviewed progress in implementing previous IMF technical assistance (TA) recommendations, and developed a draft Technical Assistance Roadmap to help strengthen the BCC’s capacity in the areas covered by the FSSR. The FSSR also for the first-time covered gender inclusion in financial supervision. It identified five macrofinancial vulnerabilities pertaining to: (i) the quality of the banking system’s capital base; (ii) the difficulty in evaluating nonperforming loans following the COVID 19 financial support measures; (iii) risks related to financial dollarization; (iv) the impact on correspondent banking relationships of “de-risking”; and (v) intragroup exposures, as bank subsidiaries in the DRC place surplus funds with parent companies abroad. The BCC’s adoption of COVID-19 exit measures in December 2021, including specific reporting requirements, should provide momentum for additional TA in the near term to help the BCC analyze banks’ asset quality going forward.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The implementation of a twin peaks model represents a significant change to the South African financial supervisory architecture. The Prudential Authority (PA), operating within the administration of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), is responsible for promoting and enhancing the safety and soundness of financial institutions that provide financial products and securities services. A separate authority, the Financial Sector Conduct Authority2 (FSCA), is responsible for market conduct regulation and supervision. The introduction of the twin peaks architecture was motivated by a need to increase the robustness of the financial sector regulatory and supervisory system, reinforce financial stability, improve protection of customers, and enhance cooperation among the regulators.
Mr. Dong He
,
Annamaria Kokenyne
,
Xavier Lavayssière
,
Ms. Inutu Lukonga
,
Nadine Schwarz
,
Nobuyasu Sugimoto
, and
Jeanne Verrier
Capital flow management measures (CFMs) can be part of the broader policy toolkit to help countries reap the benefits of capital flows while managing the associated risks. Their implementation typically requires that financial intermediaries verify the nature of transactions and the identities of transacting parties but is facing the rising challenge of crypto assets. Indeed, crypto assets have become a significant instrument for payments and speculative investments in some countries. They can be traded pseudonymously and held without identification of the residency of the asset holder. Many crypto service providers operate across borders, making supervision and enforcement by national authorities more difficult. The challenges posed by the attributes of crypto assets are compounded by gaps in the legal and regulatory frameworks. This paper aims to discuss how crypto assets could impact the effectiveness of CFMs from a structural and longer-term perspective. To preserve the effectiveness of CFMs against crypto-related challenges, policymakers need to consider a multifaceted strategy whose essential elements include clarifying the legal status of crypto assets and ensuring that CFM laws and regulations cover them; devising a comprehensive, consistent, and coordinated regulatory approach to crypto assets and applying it effectively to CFMs; establishing international collaborative arrangements for supervision of crypto assets; addressing data gaps and leveraging technology (regtech and suptech) to create anomaly-detection models and red-flag indicators that will allow for timely risk monitoring and CFM implementation.