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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Article IV Consultation highlights that economic performance remains robust but risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside amid slowing external demand. Sound macroeconomic policies notwithstanding, Bulgaria faces a sizable income gap vis-à-vis the EU average and unfavorable demographic prospects. The main policy challenge is to raise growth potential, which calls for broad-based structural reforms to improve public goods provision and institutions. The Article IV discussions focused on medium-term reforms to improve public goods provision and raise potential growth and on near-term policies to enhance financial sector stability. Fiscal policy is broadly appropriate, but the efficiency of spending and revenue administration could be further improved. Stronger public investment management would improve investment efficiency and transparency. Better performance of state-owned enterprises would help raise growth potential and mitigate fiscal risks. Bank profits have risen and non-performing loans (NPLs) have continued to decline, although they are still high among EU countries. The central bank should ensure that banks with high NPLs have adequate capital buffers.
Rakesh Mohan
and
Muneesh Kapur
The governance structure in global bodies like the IMF continues to be disproportionally dominated by advanced economies. Sustained rapid growth in emerging and developing economies (EDEs) in the past 2-3 decades has led to their growing relative weight in the global economy, but with little increase in their voice in the IMF. The emergence of regional financial arrangements reflects the growing dissatisfaction of the EDEs with the current framework. The global economy is on the cusp of an epochal change moving the fulcrum of economic power from the North Atlantic towards Asia after more than 200 years. This must be recognized and responded to adequately.
International Monetary Fund
The 2011 Article IV Consultation reports that Panama’s economy has rebounded strongly from the 2009 slowdown, and is one of the fastest-growing in the region. Rapid growth and prudent fiscal policy have lowered public debt to less than 40 percent of GDP, and rating agencies have placed Panama’s sovereign debt one notch above investment grade. The neutral fiscal stance envisaged for 2012–13 is broadly appropriate, though a tighter stance would have been preferable to rebuild buffers and contain inflation.