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Petr Jakubik
The technical assistance aimed to build capacity to monitor and assess systemic risk for non-bank financial institutions in the Grenada Authority for the Regulation of Financial Institutions (GARFIN). The mission underlined the need to clarify the macroprudential mandate and cooperation with the ECCB to conduct the macroprudential work accordingly. A potential extension of the existing Annual Report and Accounts covering key financial stability indicators and their assessment could be considered. It further highlighted the need to revise the existing reporting templates to reflect systemic risk better. Finally, the important role of the data management system was underlined.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The mission conducted a diagnostic review of the financial system and proposes a Technical Assistance Roadmap (TARM) to support the authorities’ efforts to strengthen their detection of risks and vulnerabilities and to enhance capacity in financial sector oversight and development. Two modules were undertaken during this FSSR mission. The financial stability module focused on areas agreed with the NBM and NCFM during the scoping stage: financial sector oversight, financial stability (macroprudential framework, systemic risk assessment, and stress testing), financial crisis management, financial inclusion and capital markets development. The financial sector statistics module focused on key data gaps hampering financial stability analysis as well as statistical reporting to the IMF’s Statistics Department.
Jihad Dagher
Financial crises are traditionally analyzed as purely economic phenomena. The political economy of financial booms and busts remains both under-emphasized and limited to isolated episodes. This paper examines the political economy of financial policy during ten of the most infamous financial booms and busts since the 18th century, and presents consistent evidence of pro-cyclical regulatory policies by governments. Financial booms, and risk-taking during these episodes, were often amplified by political regulatory stimuli, credit subsidies, and an increasing light-touch approach to financial supervision. The regulatory backlash that ensues from financial crises can only be understood in the context of the deep political ramifications of these crises. Post-crisis regulations do not always survive the following boom. The interplay between politics and financial policy over these cycles deserves further attention. History suggests that politics can be the undoing of macro-prudential regulations.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper assesses the stability of Indonesia’s financial system. Since the 2010 Financial Sector Assessment Program, Indonesia’s macroeconomic performance has been robust and the financial system has been stable. Systemic risk is low and the banking system appears generally resilient to severe shocks. Market-based indicators point to relatively low levels of systemic risk. Under severe stress-test scenarios, banks experience sizable credit losses, particularly from corporate exposures, but high capital levels and strong profitability help absorb most of these losses. Many banks face relatively small shortfalls in liquidity stress tests, including in foreign currency, and these appear manageable for Bank Indonesia.
Rakesh Mohan
and
Muneesh Kapur
The governance structure in global bodies like the IMF continues to be disproportionally dominated by advanced economies. Sustained rapid growth in emerging and developing economies (EDEs) in the past 2-3 decades has led to their growing relative weight in the global economy, but with little increase in their voice in the IMF. The emergence of regional financial arrangements reflects the growing dissatisfaction of the EDEs with the current framework. The global economy is on the cusp of an epochal change moving the fulcrum of economic power from the North Atlantic towards Asia after more than 200 years. This must be recognized and responded to adequately.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper discusses key findings of the Financial System Stability Assessment on Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). The financial system in BiH is still dealing with the aftershocks of the global financial crisis as well as deep-seated vulnerabilities. A high system-wide nonperforming loan ratio reflects the impact of the crisis, low growth since then, and a history of lax lending policies. Bank governance problems, weak supervision powers, and related-party loans are obstacles to addressing asset quality problems and re-establishing bank profitability. Banking and insurance oversight have improved since the 2006 Financial Sector Assessment Program, but supervisors’ corrective and enforcement powers are weak and identifying ultimate beneficial owners and related-party lending is problematic.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Korea experienced significant financial distress in the late 1990s along with some of its Asian neighbors. The authorities’ experience in handling this crisis and the experience in handling the fallout from the global financial crisis in 2007–08 helped them establish a broad crisis management framework in Korea. Improving and formalizing the framework for crisis management would help preserve and build upon institutional memory. Authorities can consider formally setting up an apex forum for leading the inter-agency cooperation and coordination work on crisis preparedness and crisis management. With a view to avoid duplication, the authorities may consider upgrading the Macroeconomic Financial Meeting (MEFM) with participation by the heads of the Ministry of Strategy and Finance (MOSF), Financial Services Commission (FSC), Financial Supervisory Service (FSS), Bank of Korea (BOK), and Korea Deposit Insurance Corporation (KDIC) as members, and by including crisis preparedness and crisis management as an explicit mandate. The essential elements of a financial safety net are available in Korea, and the Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) framework and deposit insurance system can be improved to make the safety net more responsive. For ELA, this can be achieved by reviewing and revising the legal and procedural aspects to remove any scope for delays in actual disbursement of funds. For deposit insurance system, improvements can be made by bringing the deposit insurance fund out of deficit, and assuring a back-up funding. The financial safety net is well supported by an efficient framework of financial sector supervision. While the corrective action framework has some of the main elements in place it can, among others, be improved in the following areas for better effectiveness: (a) reviewing the triggers for corrective actions and improving their objectivity to enable timely intervention, including even before banks breach regulatory thresholds; and (b) putting in place norms and guidance determining the use of the powers to postpone or suspend corrective actions.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Financial System Stability Assessment report on the Republic of Korea highlights that the Korean economy is experiencing a modest recovery, helped by supportive monetary and fiscal policies and buoyant exports. GDP growth is expected to rebound to 2.8 percent in 2013, and strengthen further to 3.7 percent in 2014, in view of the projected global recovery and a gradual pickup in domestic demand. Inflation has fallen to 0.7 percent in October 2013 from 4.2 percent in 2011. With stronger exports and muted domestic demand, the current account surplus has widened and is expected to reach about 5.5 percent of GDP in 2013.
Rakesh Mohan
,
Michael Debabrata Patra
, and
Muneesh Kapur
The North Atlantic financial crisis of 2008-2009 has spurred renewed interest in reforming the international monetary system, which has been malfunctioning in many aspects. Large and volatile capital flows have promoted greater volatility in financial markets, leading to recurrent financial crises. The renewed focus on the broader role of the central banks, away from narrow price stability monetary policy frameworks, is necessary to ensure domestic macroeconomic and financial stability. Since international monetary cooperation might be difficult, though desirable, central banks in major advanced economies, going forward, need to internalize the implications of their monetary policies for the rest of the global economy to reduce the incidence of financial crises.
International Monetary Fund
Following the global financial crisis of 2008-09, regional financing arrangements (RFAs) have been recognized as an important layer of the global financial safety net. This paper summarizes the current landscape of RFAs, and discusses IMF-RFA coordination to date and options for enhancing cooperation going forward. In so doing, it intends to contribute to discussions underway at international fora and solicit views from the Fund and RFA memberships on how to enhance cooperation