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Law > Business and Financial

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Malaysia: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Malaysia’s economic performance has significantly improved in 2024, supported by strong domestic and external demand. Disinflation is taking hold and external pressures have eased. The favorable economic conditions provide a window of opportunity to build macroeconomic policy buffers and accelerate structural reforms, especially as risks to growth are tilted to the downside amid an uncertain global outlook. Risks to the inflation outlook are tilted to the upside, including from global commodity price shocks and potential wage pressures.
Keywords:
upside inflation risk; Malaysia's obligation; asset forfeiture regime; upside risk; upside growth risk; Inflation; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Credit; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Navigating External Shocks in Southeast Asia's Emerging Markets: Key Lessons and Challenges in Applying the IMF’s Integrated Policy Framework
Corinne C Delechat
,
Umang Rawat
, and
Ara Stepanyan
As relatively small open economies, South-East Asian emerging markets (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand or ASEAN-4) are highly susceptible to external shocks—both financial and real—that could induce large capital flows and exchange rate volatility that could lead to foreign exchange market dysfunction. With the exception of Bank Negara Malaysia, ASEAN-4 central banks mostly have flexible inflation-targeting frameworks for monetary policy implementation. Their main policy objectives include medium-term price stability, sustainable economic growth, and financial stability. Central Banks in ASEAN-4 economies have been early pilots in the operationalization of the IMF’s Integrated Policy Framework (IPF) in 2022-23, given their experience in using multiple policy tools besides the monetary policy rate, including macroprudential measures, foreign exchange intervention (FXI), and capital flow management measures, to achieve their multiple objectives. They have welcomed the IPF as a systematic, frictions-based approach to analyze the use of these multiple tools to manage trade-offs across policy objectives. This paper takes stock of the experience from these pilots, both from the perspective of country authorities and of IMF country teams. It aims at distilling key lessons, which could be used to inform broader IPF operationalization. The IPF conceptual framework and a related quantitative model were used to assess policy trade-offs in ASEAN-4 in the event of adverse external shocks. These applications reaffirmed the importance of using monetary policy to address persistent inflationary pressures stemming from real shocks and allowing the exchange rate to act as a shock absorber. However, a complementary use of FXI could improve trade-offs between price, financial, and output stability when economies are faced with large and financial shocks that result in abrupt spikes in uncovered interest rate parity premia resulting in inefficiently tight financial conditions that could hurt growth or risking to de-anchor inflation expectations. The IPF pilots also highlighted some challenges faced when operationalizing IPF principles, notably regarding the assessment of frictions and shocks that might justify the use of FXI. In particular, country teams at times lacked sufficient information to adequately assess the extent of frictions. Moreover, the time-varying nature of IPF frictions and the non-linear effects of shocks make it difficult to assess situations when benefits of a complementary use of FXI would overweigh its costs.
Keywords:
ASEAN; foreign- exchange intervention; Inflation targeting; Integrated policy framework; capital flows; IPF pilot; market dysfunction; IMF country team; IPF model; Policy mix; IMF seminar participant; Currency markets; Exchange rates; Inflation; Southeast Asia; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Chile: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Chile
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation highlights that macroeconomic imbalances built during the pandemic have been largely resolved, supported by tighter macroeconomic policies deployed during late 2021–22 in Chile. Growth is expected to pick up to close to 2 percent in 2024 and 2–2.5 percent in the medium term. Inflation is projected to converge to the 3-percent target in 2024. Key external risks are the uncertainties around the potentially higher-for-longer interest rates in advanced economies, a growth slowdown in major trading partners, and the intensification of regional conflicts in the world. Policies have supported macroeconomic stability. In the context of disinflation acceleration, the Central Bank of Chile lowered the monetary policy rate by 400 basis points since July 2023. The headline fiscal balance is estimated to decline to about -2.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2023 due to weaker tax revenues amid an economic slowdown, lower copper prices, and other transitory factors. The 2024 budget envisions a moderate deficit reduction within a medium-term fiscal plan to a broadly balanced fiscal position by 2026. The ongoing implementation of the countercyclical capital buffer will strengthen financial resilience in periods of stress.
Keywords:
basket weight; CPI data; CPI calculation methodology; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; money market rate; Fiscal stance; Inflation; Income; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People’s Republic of China—Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: 2023 Article IV Consultation Discussions-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that the economic recovery in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) stalled in 2022 following a major coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak and U.S. monetary policy tightening. However, in 2023, real gross domestic product is projected to grow by 3.5 percent. The financial system remains resilient and continues to serve as an international financial center, supported by strong institutional frameworks and substantial capital and liquidity buffers. The Linked Exchange Rate System continues to function smoothly, providing a solid anchor to the economy and the financial system, allowing the latter to perform its role as an international financial center. Housing prices, which declined by about 16 percent by end-2022 from the peak in September 2021, have started to recover in early 2023. Near-term risks to the growth outlook are balanced, with systemic risk in the financial sector manageable given significant buffers. A sharper-than-expected global growth slowdown as well as escalation of regional conflicts and resulting disruptions in trade could derail the recovery. A sharp rise in global risk premia amid renewed stress in the global banking system and further tightening of monetary policy in major advanced economies could have adverse spillovers through financial channels.
Keywords:
Hong Kong SAR economy; exchange rate system; rate of HK; GDP compilation; transparency policy; household expenditure survey; Hong Kong SAR authority; Hong Kong SAR official; return on equity; expenditure measure; Housing; External sector statistics; Housing prices; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands-Aruba: Technical Assistance Report-Financial Stability Diagnostic and Scoping Mission
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This technical assistance report on Aruba highlights the financial stability diagnostic and scoping mission. The economy of Aruba is tourist dependent, which is an important source of vulnerability. The major source of risk comes from lending. Banks are increasingly exposed to the real estate market and compete with nonregulated lenders. Residential house prices have increased significantly in some regions since the start of the pandemic driven by strong demand from nonresidential buyers as well as higher construction costs due to coronavirus disease-related supply constraints. The future Financial Stability Department (FSD) is advised to develop a strategy on Macroprudential Policy (MaP). Based on the macroprudential strategy, the FSD should prepare the methodology for the introduction of the MaP instruments chosen as well as ensure the necessary preparations in terms of data collection for this purpose. The data available to the Central Bank of Aruba is sufficient for starting systemic risk monitoring, but some data gaps should be addressed. The monitoring of systemic risk and the development of macroprudential tools requires more granular, frequent, and timely data.
Keywords:
CARTAC mission; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; bank FIS; mortgage bank; bank data; c. CBA; lending portfolio; Financial sector stability; Mortgages; Commercial banks; Housing prices; Loans; Caribbean
Cover Policy Papers
The Managing Director's Global Policy Agenda, Spring Meetings 2023: Safeguard Economic Stability, Support Vulnerable Countries, Sustain Our Future Prosperity
International Monetary Fund
The global economy is at another highly uncertain moment: tentative signs of stabilization earlier this year have receded, and the outlook is increasingly risky and uncertain. At the same time, divisions within and across countries are deepening, exacerbated by rising fragmentation. Strong policy action is needed together with pragmatic approaches to find areas of common ground to respond to shared challenges. The IMF is proactively engaging with our members to chart a clear course to a stronger and more sustainable path for the global economy.
Keywords:
support vulnerable country; Policy agenda; spring meetings 2023; future prosperity; vulnerable country; Financial sector stability; Climate change; Inflation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Jamaica: Sixth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangements-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Direct for Jamaica
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper discusses Jamaica’s Sixth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). All quantitative performance criteria, indicative targets, and the structural benchmark at end-June were met, marking a successful completion of the SBA. Discussions centered on policies to lock-in macroeconomic stability and advance supply-side reforms to promote inclusive growth, including: building institutions and advancing fiscal reforms to safeguard and sustain economic stability and debt reduction; improving monetary operations and policy transmission; and bolstering financial inclusion, access to credit, and formality. Most structural policy commitments are on track, although some key reforms to public sector transformation, the compensation framework for public employees, legislation to establish a fiscal council, and creating a special resolution regime for financial institutions have been delayed due to capacity constraints and the need to build stakeholder support for these reforms. Important gains have been made in the oversight of financial institutions.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; policy; IMF's Executive Board; governance framework; reform commitment; government; implementing policy; fund program arrangement; Public sector; PFM legal and regulatory frameworks; Fuel prices; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Australia: Financial System Stability Assessment
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper presents Financial System Stability Assessment of Australian financial systems. The report highlights that financial supervision and systemic risk oversight have been enhanced. And the authorities have taken successful policy action to calm rapid growth in riskier segments of the mortgage market. Restrictions on the growth of investor loans and the share of interest-only mortgages, as well as the introduction of stronger lending standards, appear to have led to a slowdown in mortgage credit growth, and the housing market is now cooling. Financial supervision shows generally high conformity to international best practices, although there are opportunities to close identified gaps and strengthen arrangements. Steps are recommended to bolster the independence and resourcing of the regulatory agencies, by removing constraints on their policy making powers and providing additional budgetary autonomy and flexibility. The paper explains that greater formalization and transparency of the work of the Council of Financial Regulators would further buttress the financial stability framework.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; financial system; banking sector; housing market; monetary policy; financial condition; capital requirement; mid-sized bank; resolution modality; asset quality; loan portfolio; bank exposure; Systemic risk; Financial sector stability; Credit; Housing prices; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nepal: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper examines the degree to which inflation co-moves between India and a panel of countries in Asia. The paper shows that the considerable co-movement in headline inflation rates between India and Nepal is driven almost exclusively by food-inflation co-movement. By contrast, the role for inflation spillovers emanating from India in driving non-food inflation in Nepal appears limited. The implication is that Nepal should rely on domestic monetary policy rather than stable inflation in India to achieve stable domestic inflation. The main takeaway from the results is that food inflation co-movement between India and other countries is higher in cases where the co-movement in rainfall deviations from seasonal norms is highest. Since core inflation co-movement is weak, idiosyncratic domestic factors such as economic slack, exchange-rate movements, and differing degrees of passthrough from food- and energy-price shocks play an important role. This finding is critically important for monetary policy, especially since domestic policy is primarily effective only in controlling core inflation. Thus, domestic monetary policy needs to be calibrated to domestic inflationary pressures—Nepal cannot necessarily rely on stable inflation in India to achieve stable domestic inflation.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Nepal; headline inflation inflation rate; SME credit guarantee scheme; policy effort; SME lending; India-Nepal case; government initiative; Fiscal federalism; Financial inclusion; Inflation; Asia and Pacific; Global; South Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People's Republic of China-Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Hong Kong SAR’s economy benefitted from a strong cyclical upswing through the first half of 2018, supported by the continued global recovery, buoyant domestic sentiment, and the booming property market. However, near-term risks have significantly increased – including those from trade tensions, tighter global financial conditions, and capital outflows from emerging markets. Also, long-term challenges, including from aging, elevated inequality, and the persistent housing shortage, need to be tackled. Prudent macroeconomic policies and ample buffers are in place to help smoothen the transition and ensure continued stability.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; SAR.; HK dollar; China; authority; convertibility undertaking; IMF staff calculation; business cycle; rate of HK; FX reserve; Housing; Housing prices; External sector statistics; Global; Asia and Pacific