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Carol C. Bertaut
,
Stephanie E. Curcuru
,
Ester Faia
, and
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
We provide new estimates of the return on US external claims and liabilities using confidential, high-quality, security-level data. The excess return is positive on average, since claims are tilted toward higher return equities. The excess return is large and positive in normal times but large and negative during global crises, reflecting the global insurance role of the US external balance sheet. Controlling for issuer’s nationality, we find that US investors have a larger exposure to equity issued by Asia-headquartered corporations than reported in the aggregate statistics. Finally, equity portfolios are concentrated in ’superstar’ firms, but for US liabilities foreign holdings are less concentrated than the overall market.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
A CARTAC National Accounts technical assistance mission to St Kitts and Nevis, re-referenced the volume estimates of quarterly GDP for the years 2012–2022 using 2018 as the base and reference year from the previous 2006 base year. The series were developed for both Saint Kitts and for Nevis and a combined series for the Federal aggregate. The re-referencing exercise provided an opportunity to introduce some other improvements. Notably, the calculation of Final Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured (FISIM) consumed by each economic sector businesses and its allocation to economic activities. The updated series were also prepared using the International Standard Industrial Classification of Economic Activity (ISIC) revision 4 . These improvements align the updated GDP series with the standards set out in the 2008 System of National Accounts. In addition, the current price estimates of GDP by expenditure were also reviewed.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses unravelling Panama’s large unemployment fluctuations. Panama’s labor force and employment have increased remarkably over the last decades. The rapid labor force growth was driven by a combination of demographic and social transformations. The increase in the labor force participation rate was the result of rising female labor force participation. Panama’s income convergence in the 25 years preceding the Pandemic was in large part the result of an increase in the employment to population rate. Convergence can either result from an increase in the employment rate relative to that in the US, or from faster labor productivity growth. In the case of Panama, about three quarters of the reduction in the income differential with the US was driven by an increase in the employment to population rate, and only one quarter was the result of faster labor productivity growth. Going forward, the increase in the employment to population ratio is likely to be slower and, for income convergence to continue, productivity growth will need to accelerate. The demographic transition has largely run its course as population growth is projected to keep declining and the share of the working-age population is expected to decrease in the next decades.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
A technical assistance (TA) mission on external sector statistics (ESS) was conducted to the Central Statistics Office (CSO) of Saint Lucia as part of the Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC) work program on ESS. The mission focused on addressing data compilation issues on trade in goods—especially on the import and re-export of fuel—and travel credits and assessed the revised 2022 balance of payments that was disseminated in December 2023.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance report on Cayman Islands focuses on improving estimates of gross domestic product (GDP). One activity flagged by the Economics and Statistics Office (ESO) as an area for improvement is the measurement of construction value added. The ESO has expressed an interest in developing ISAs for the Cayman Islands. The detail at which gross domestic product by production approach (GDP-P) and gross domestic product by income approach are compiled mean that transforming the data to an institutional sector basis is feasible. For GDP-P, the ESO conduct an Annual National Accounts Survey, which is the main data source for compiling the production measure estimates. The survey forms strike the right balance in terms of the number of questions and detail required for national accounts, without being too onerous on survey respondents. Given the importance of tourism in the Cayman Islands, the ESO is keen to develop a Tourism Satellite Account for the country.