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Middle East and Central Asia > Kyrgyz Republic

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Cover IMF Working Papers
The Impact of International Migration on Inclusive Growth: A Review
Zsoka Koczan
,
Magali Pinat
, and
Mr. Dmitriy L Rozhkov
International migration is an important channel of material improvement for individuals and their offspring. The movement of people across country borders, especially from less developed to richer countries, has a substantial impact in several dimensions. First, it affects the migrants themselves by allowing them to achieve higher income as a result of their higher productivity in the destination country. It also increases the expected income for their offspring. Second, it affects the destination country through the impact on labor markets, productivity, innovation, demographic structure, fiscal balance, and criminality. Third, it can have a significant impact on the countries of origin. It may lead to loss of human capital, but it also creates a flow of remittances and increases international connections in the form of trade, FDI, and technological transfers. This paper surveys our understanding of how migration affects growth and inequality through the impact on migrants themselves as well as on the destination and origin countries.
Keywords:
International Migration; Inequality; Economic growth; complementarity effect; consequences of migration; E. country case; origin country; wage effect; Migration; Remittances; Labor markets; Wages; Income; Global; Eastern Europe; costs of emigration; impact of migration; wage effect of migration
Cover IMF Working Papers
Impact of Remittances on Natural Rate of Dollarization—Trends in Caucasus and Central Asia
Rocio Gondo
,
Altynai Aidarova
, and
Mr. Manmohan Singh
This paper discusses migration and remittances trends, and calculates the natural (or benchmark) level of dollarization in Caucasus, Central Asia and others in the region. This natural level of dollarization is conceptually linked to the currency allocation in a portfolio of deposits to maximize welfare, in line with Ize and Levy Yeyati (2003). The fall in remittances due to the economic slowdown since the spread of COVID-19 affects the macroeconomic fundamentals that determine demand for foreign currency deposits. We calculate the natural dollarization level by integrating structural macroeconomic characteristics. We show that despite the reduction in deposit dollarization, there is still a gap with respect to the natural level of dollarization, especially in a scenario of (persistent) lower remittance inflows.
Keywords:
WP; remittance; deposit dollarization; natural rate of dollarization; Russia; COVID; remittances; Central Asia; Caucasus; remittance inflow; dollarization policy; benchmark dollarization; dollarization level; exchange rate depreciation; Dollarization; Exchange rates; Currencies; Income; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus; loan dollarization rate; Migration
Cover IMF Working Papers
Remittances in Russia and Caucasus and Central Asia: the Gravity Model
Mr. Tigran Poghosyan
Remitances are an important source of external financing in low- and middle-income countries. This paper uses the gravity model to analyze remittance flows in Russia and Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) countries. Standard gravity determinants, such as GDP in sending and recieiving countries, bilateral distance, existence of common borders and common official language, fit remittance flows well. Remittances also react to inflation and exchange rate movements in recipient countries to sustain their purchasing power. In line with the altruism hypothesis, remittances flow to countries with higher age dependency ratio. Remittances are countercyclical and help stabilize outputs in recipient countries. However, global shocks resulting in sharp output losses of sending countries would lead to large volatility and decline of remittance inflows in recipient countries. The results of the analysis can be used to assess the impact of the COVID-19 shock on projected remittance flows into CCA.
Keywords:
WP; remittance; country; remittance flow; international remittances; migration; gravity model; recipient country; country j; bilateral remittance; pair level; sending country; Remittances; Gravity models; Oil prices; Exchange rates; Outward remittances; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Use of Third-Party Indicators in Fund Reports
International Monetary Fund
Fund staff use indicators developed by other organizations as input into analysis in surveillance and, to a lesser extent, in program work. While the Fund has been able to rely on data and statistics provided by member countries and compiled internally, continued efforts to foster global economic and financial stability require staff to work with indicators drawn from numerous third-party compilers. These indicators of varied qualities are used to measure concepts such as business environment, competitiveness, and quality of governance. It is anticipated that staff will continue to draw on other institutions’ expertise and estimates. This practice is consistent with the Executive Board’s guidance in areas where internal expertise is lacking or limited. It also puts a premium on staff’s understanding of the third-party indicators (TPIs) used to add analytical value, avoid flawed conclusions and presentation, and support traction with the membership. This paper outlines a framework to promote best practice with respect to use of TPIs in Fund reports. The framework will apply to all documents that are subject to the Fund’s Transparency Policy. Staff are encouraged to follow similar guidelines for other Fund documents. It draws on lessons from the current practice in the Fund and other selected international organizations (IOs), and insights from the application of an adapted data quality assessment framework (DQAF) to a subset of TPIs commonly used by Fund staff. Common good practices across IOs include the emphasis on staff judgment, review, and consultation with stakeholders.
Keywords:
PP; third-party indicator; director; fund staff; indicator; staff effort; staff analysis; staff report; Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF); Business environment; Corruption; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Third Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses the Kyrgyz Republic’s Third Review under the Three-Year Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and the Request for Modification of Performance Criteria (PCs). Program conditionality has been broadly met. All end-June 2016 quantitative PCs and indicative targets have been met. All but two structural benchmarks were met. The review of subsidies was not completed on time owing to limited capacity. The authorities are requesting modification of PCs to reflect the revised macroeconomic outlook and the availability of the fourth disbursement on completion of the review. The IMF staff supports completing the third review of the authorities' program under the ECF arrangement.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Kyrgyz authorities; real GDP; Kyrgyzstan; exchange rate; national bank of the Kyrgyz Republic; expenditure measure; Kyrgyz government; policy slippage; authorities' effort; Loans; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Second Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Kyrgyz Republic
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
External shocks continue to shape both the outlook and policies. A weaker-than-expected external environment is hurting growth, straining the budget, and raising public debt and banking sector vulnerabilities. The authorities’ response to shocks has focused on exchange rate flexibility and unorthodox stimulus measures, although the budget deficit in 2015 was well within the program target. For 2016, the authorities are undertaking additional efforts to adhere to the program’s fiscal commitments. Financial sector vulnerabilities and risks are high and rising. Slow progress toward passing the Banking Law that aims to introduce a modern bank resolution system and increase the independence of the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic remains a concern. The change in the cabinet just six months after the elections underlines the fluidity of the country’s political situation.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Kyrgyz authorities; Kyrgyzstan; exchange rate depreciation; authority; SDR; national bank of the Kyrgyz Republic; disbursement of SDR; Kyrgyz economy; Kyrgyz government; Loans; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Central Asia; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses the Kyrgyz Republic’s Request for a Three-year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). Performance under the previous ECF arrangement, which expired last July, was good. Macroeconomic stability was restored, fiscal consolidation was stronger than planned, monetary policy was enhanced through a new interest rate-based framework, and supervision was strengthened in the financial sector. Although performance under the last ECF arrangement was good, new challenges have emerged, and some key reforms have yet to be implemented. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for a three-year arrangement under the ECF.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; Kyrgyzstan; ECF arrangement; Kyrgyz authorities; debt management strategy; Extended Credit Facility arrangement; Kyrgyz government; development fund; Credit; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Central Asia; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
The Kyrgyz Republic: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper on Kyrgyz Republic highlights that the period 2009 through filled with symbolic events marked a new milestone in the Kyrgyz Republic development and will enter the country’s history as the period of strength test for the Kyrgyz statehood and entire public administration system including socio-political, economic, environmental, financial and other areas of development management. The country development background during that period included the world financial crisis and growing uncertainty on world markets which created risks for all market actors including the Kyrgyzstan’s key trade partners such as Russia, Kazakhstan, and China. The government officially declared the country’s sustainable development-oriented policy. For Kyrgyzstan as a country with its still high poverty level, particularly in rural areas, and limited natural and financial resources, the sustainable development policy seems today’s logically and politically justified choice. The sustainable development model itself suggests striving for systemic, comprehensiveness, and balance in development. Transition to sustainable development suggests considering economic growth through the prism of human values and reasonable use of natural resources.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Kyrgyz Republic government; staff training; community development; customs union; education system; feasibility study; foreign trade; government regulation; labor market; national budget; sustainable development; value chain; economic system; civil society; risk management; Sustainable development; Global; Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Kyrgyz Republic—Sixth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses Kyrgyz Republic’s Sixth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility. Following exceptionally strong performance in 2013, growth is moderating to a more sustainable pace. The program is broadly on track, with all end-December 2013 quantitative performance criteria and all but one indicative targets (IT) met for end-December 2013. Although three March 2014 ITs were missed, since then there has been progress in rebuilding reserves and enhancing tax collections. The two structural benchmarks for end-December were met. The IMF staff supports the completion of the sixth and final review.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; ECF arrangement; Kyrgyz authorities; SDR; Kyrgyz government; state government; Kyrgyz portfolio; Kyrgyz program; private sector; bank resolution; Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: 2013 Article IV Consultation and Fourth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility, Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria—Staff Report; Public Information Notice and Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Kyrgyz Republic
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The shift to a parliamentary democracy in 2010 provided an impetus for the Kyrgyz Republic to reform the economy. Despite the recent progress, the Kyrgyz Republic faces significant economic challenges, which will require actions on many fronts. Improving the business climate, governance, and institutions remains a key pillar of sustainable and inclusive growth. Restoring fiscal sustainability will be essential, as the budget has become more dependent on external assistance since the 2009 global and 2010 domestic crises. Tight monetary policy continues to be warranted to keep inflation at bay.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Kyrgyz authorities; Kyrgyzstan; SDR; authority; IMF's executive board; executive board's decision; state government; transmission mechanism; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Global; Central Asia