Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Topic

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Middle East and Central Asia > Kyrgyz Republic

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 14 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover IMF Working Papers
Drivers of Inflation in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Maria Atamanchuk
,
Alejandro Hajdenberg
,
Dalia Kadissi
,
Giulio Lisi
, and
Nasir H Rao
In parallel with global developments, inflation in the Central Asia and Caucasus (CCA) has exhibited large swings in recent years. This paper investigates inflation dynamics in the CCA and its main drivers and derives conclusions that can inform policymaking. The analysis is based on three empirical approaches. Inflation drivers and its dynamics are investigated through the estimation of a Phillips curve augmented with foreign factors and a panel vector autoregression. The paper also assesses the role of monetary policy in steering inflation outcomes by estimating a local projection model. The paper finds that external factors play a major role in determining CCA inflation dynamics, although domestic factors (e.g., demand conditions, expectations) also contribute. Monetary policy is found to have a statistically significant effect on inflation, including by moderating the impact of external drivers. The findings point to the need to continue strengthening policy frameworks to steer expectations and improve the effectiveness of monetary policy, while establishing adequate social safety nets to cushion the impact from global shocks.
Keywords:
Inflation; Caucasus and Central Asia; Phillips curve; panel VAR; local projection method; monetary policy; CCA inflation dynamics; inflation driver; Phillips Curve estimation; inflation development; inflation outcome; Food prices; Output gap; Nominal effective exchange rate; Oil prices; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover IMF Working Papers
Global Food Price Inflation and Policy Responses in Central Asia
International Monetary Fund
This paper examines the implications of elevated global food prices for inflation in select Central Asian economies - Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The findings suggest that global food inflation has significant short-run effects that build over time. Inflation outcomes simulated under alternative global wheat price assumptions underscore these vulnerabilities, and suggest that sustained administrative measures are unlikely to prove effective. In line with structural economic features, the interest rate channel of monetary policy is found to be limited, arguing for a broad policy strategy to control more expansive inflationary pressures. Looking ahead, measures to enhance supply responses, deepen domestic financial markets, develop adequate social safety nets, and increase central bank independence are warranted.
Keywords:
WP; price; food; headline inflation
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2011, Middle East and Central Asia
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2011, Middle East and Central Asia
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

This issue of the Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia provides an in-depth look at the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) region, as well as the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA). Four chapters deal with MENAP oil exporters, MENAP oil importers, policy challenges facing MENAP, and sustaining the recovery in the CCA countries. Two developments mark the outlook for the MENAP region: the social and political unrest and the surge in global fuel and food prices, which have resulted in unusually large uncertainties in the near-term economic outlook. Meanwhile, growth in the CCA countries was higher than expected. Three main policy challenges to CCA countries are rising inflation, heightened social pressures to spend, and the poor quality of bank portfolios. Job creation and poverty reduction are key objectives for all CCA countries.

Keywords:
REO; country; price; CCA country; economy; GCC country; oil exporter; MENAP country; upside risk; headline inflation; Oil; Inflation; Oil prices; Social assistance spending; Fuel prices; Global; Middle East; North Africa; Central Asia; Maghreb; inflation expectation; price subsidy; East Africa
Cover Departmental Papers
Creating Policy Space in Low-Income Countries during the Recent Crises
Mr. Paolo Dudine
,
Sibabrata Das
,
Ms. Pritha Mitra
,
Yongzheng Yang
,
Eteri Kvintradze
, and
Miss Nkunde Mwase
Low-income countries were hit especially hard by sharp increases in world food and fuel prices in 2007-08 and the global financial crisis that followed. In response, the International Monetary Fund scaled up its financial assistance to low-income countries and revamped its concessional lending facilities to make them more flexible in meeting the diverse needs of these countries. Creating Policy Space in Low-Income Countries during the Recent Crises assesses empirically the outcome of the IMF response, and provides insight into how IMF-supported programs in low-income countries have been adapted to the changing economic circumstances in these countries. The authors report that these programs have provided expanded policy space in the face of the global price shocks and financial crisis.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; The Fund; price; LICs; spending; country; fiscal policy; fuel price; current account; country authorities; economic activity; balance of payments; social spending; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Food prices; Inflation; Fuel prices; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Creating Policy Space - Responsive Design and Streamlined Conditionality in Recent Low-Income Country Programs
International Monetary Fund
An analysis of recent programs in low-income countries, covering countries with continuous program engagement with the IMF throughout the period 2007-09, shows that program design has been adapted to provide expanded policy space in response to the food and fuel price shocks of 2007-08 and to the global financial crisis that followed. The analysis also finds that structural conditionality in Fund-supported programs in low-income countries has become more streamlined, with a dominant focus on public sector resource management and accountability.
Keywords:
PP; country authorities; fuel price; LIC government; debt sustainability; IMF staff estimate; Fund-supported program; fiscal policy; program design; economic activity; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Inflation; Food prices; Fuel prices; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2008, Middle East and Central Asia
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2008, Middle East and Central Asia
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia underlines that the region has continued to experience strong growth in 2008, and the short-term outlook is generally favorable. However, inflation has emerged as a key issue, and while the global credit crunch has thus far had a limited impact on regional financial markets, the financial turmoil and slowdown in developed economies could lower growth in the period ahead. Policies will need to focus on tightening the fiscal and monetary stance where appropriate, with greater exchange rate flexibility, and continuing efforts to strengthen the resilience of financial sectors.

Keywords:
REO; abbreviation FY; price; MCD country; per capita income; en dash; a number of assumption; country acronym; inflation expectation; inflation risk; Inflation; Public sector wages; Food prices; Commodity prices; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; Maghreb; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Middle East; North Africa; Oil prices; East Africa
Cover Policy Papers
Food and Fuel Prices-Recent Developments, Macroeconomic Impact, and Policy Responses—An Update
International Monetary Fund
This report updates the macroeconomic assessment of the impact of global food and fuel price increases provided in the IMF June 2008 Board paper: Food and Fuel Prices—Recent Developments, Macroeconomic Impact, and Policy Response. Food and oil prices peaked in early summer—in particular, oil prices surged to levels envisaged under the most adverse scenario presented in the June paper. Against this background, the effects of higher prices on the balance of payments, budgets, and domestic prices intensified and a large group of low- and middle-income countries is experiencing a substantial weakening of their balance of payments and higher inflation. These findings reinforce the importance of adopting appropriate policies to maintain macroeconomic stability while protecting the poor.
Keywords:
PP; country; price; food price; headline inflation; cost; fuel price shock; U.S. dollar; peak oil price; Euro terms; fuel price; price shock; Food prices; Fuel prices; Oil prices; Inflation; Energy subsidies; Global; Africa
Cover Policy Papers
Food and Fuel Prices - Recent Developments, Macroeconomic Impact, and Policy Responses
International Monetary Fund
This report provides a first broad assessment of the impact of the surge in food and fuel prices on the balance of payments, budgets, prices, and poverty of a large sample of countries. It reviews countries’ macroeconomic policy responses to date and also discusses Fund advice for managing the price increases. Policies should (i) ensure that food and finance reaches the most affected countries as quickly as possible, (ii) include targeted and scaled-up social measures, and (iii) avoid high costs in terms of macroeconomic instability or loss in future agricultural production. Collaborating with international partners, the Fund also stands ready to provide balance of payments assistance. As the paper presents an initial assessment of a still-evolving situation, the somewhat tentative nature of the analysis should be borne in mind.
Keywords:
PP; fuel price; price increase; food price; U.S. dollar; oil price; monetary policy; Inflation; Food prices; Fuel prices; Oil prices; Tariffs; Global
Cover IMF Survey
Bulletin du FMI vol. 37, n° 6, juin 2008
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Le FMI aide les pays à faire face à la crise alimentaire; Risques d'inflation; Mark Plant, FMI et crise alimentaire; Perspectives du Moyen-Orient; Résistance des pays émergents; Le retour de la Côte d'Ivoire; Réformes financières au Ghana; Banques Islamiques; Rapport sur la gouvernance du FMI, Tom Bernes; L'actualité en bref.
Keywords:
SV; bank; market; IMF staff research; price; policy
Cover IMF Survey
IMF Survey, Volume 37, Issue 06
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Food Price Crisis, Inflation Risks, Mark Plant, IMF and the Food Crisis, Multilateral Initiative, Middle East Regional OUtllok, Emerging Markets' Resilience, Côte d'Ivoire's Comeback, Ghana's Financial Reforms, Islamic Banks and Financial Stability, Report on IMF Governance, Tom Bernes, News Briefs.
Keywords:
SV; bank; market; IMF staff research; price; policy; IMF survey; IMF investment authority; commodity supply bottleneck; IMF Deputy managing director Takatoshi Kato; Islamic banking; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Food prices; Oil prices; Securities markets; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; Middle East; Africa; Southeast Asia; West Africa