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Middle East and Central Asia > Kyrgyz Republic

You are looking at 1 - 7 of 7 items for :

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Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2011, Middle East and Central Asia
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2011, Middle East and Central Asia
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

This issue of the Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia provides an in-depth look at the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) region, as well as the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA). Four chapters deal with MENAP oil exporters, MENAP oil importers, policy challenges facing MENAP, and sustaining the recovery in the CCA countries. Two developments mark the outlook for the MENAP region: the social and political unrest and the surge in global fuel and food prices, which have resulted in unusually large uncertainties in the near-term economic outlook. Meanwhile, growth in the CCA countries was higher than expected. Three main policy challenges to CCA countries are rising inflation, heightened social pressures to spend, and the poor quality of bank portfolios. Job creation and poverty reduction are key objectives for all CCA countries.

Keywords:
REO; country; price; CCA country; economy; GCC country; oil exporter; MENAP country; upside risk; headline inflation; Oil; Inflation; Oil prices; Social assistance spending; Fuel prices; Global; Middle East; North Africa; Central Asia; Maghreb; inflation expectation; price subsidy; East Africa
Cover Departmental Papers
Coping with the Global Financial Crisis: Challenges Facing Low-Income Countries
Ms. Stefania Fabrizio
This forthcoming title in the Departmental Paper Series describes the special challenges facing low-income countries as economic growth contracts by an estimated 1.1 percent globally. Coping with the Crisis: Challenges Facing Low-Income Countries provides an assessment of the implications of the financial crisis for low-income countries, evaluates the short-term macroeconomic outlook for these countries, and discusses the policy challenges they face. Chapters cover the outlook for global economic growth and commodity prices, an overview of how low-income countries have been affected, fiscal policy, monetary and exchange rate policy responses, potential external financing needs and how the international community, including the IMF, can help countries meet them. The challenges ahead for low-income countries are delineated, including debt vulnerabilities and the need for countries to develop well-regulated local capital markets and banking systems, as well as enhanced public sector efficiency.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; Low-income country; financing; debt; fund; financial support; debt distress; foreign direct investment; burden indicator; headline inflation; debt vulnerability; economic growth; targeted financing needs; distress rating; Debt sustainability; Debt sustainability analysis; Commodity prices; Debt burden; Foreign direct investment; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Asia and Pacific; Middle East; Western Europe
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2008, Middle East and Central Asia
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2008, Middle East and Central Asia
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia underlines that the region has continued to experience strong growth in 2008, and the short-term outlook is generally favorable. However, inflation has emerged as a key issue, and while the global credit crunch has thus far had a limited impact on regional financial markets, the financial turmoil and slowdown in developed economies could lower growth in the period ahead. Policies will need to focus on tightening the fiscal and monetary stance where appropriate, with greater exchange rate flexibility, and continuing efforts to strengthen the resilience of financial sectors.

Keywords:
REO; abbreviation FY; price; MCD country; per capita income; en dash; a number of assumption; country acronym; inflation expectation; inflation risk; Inflation; Public sector wages; Food prices; Commodity prices; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; Maghreb; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Middle East; North Africa; Oil prices; East Africa
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 54, No. 1
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This is the first issue of IMF Staff Papers published under a special partnership between the IMF and Palgrave Macmillan. Very little will change with regard to the journal's visual appearance, though significant service quality enhancements (e.g., an on-line interactive edition) will rollout before the end of 2007. For more information and regular updates, please access http://www.palgrave-journals.com/imfsp/index.html.
Keywords:
SP; forecast error; distance coefficient; commodity price shock; core inflation measure; adjustment effort; Commodity price shocks; Inflation; Employment; Commodity price fluctuations; Employment rate; Central and Eastern Europe; Western Hemisphere; Middle East; Africa; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Commodity Price Shocks and the Oddson Fiscal Performance
Mr. Francis Y Kumah
and
Mr. John J Matovu
Unanticipated changes in commodity prices can generate significant movements in fiscal aggregates. This paper seeks to understand the dynamics of these fiscal movements in the context of transitory commodity price shocks using sample data from four CIS countries- two oil-producing and two non-oil commodity-intensive countries. It adopts a structural VAR approach and identifies the dynamic effects of commodity price shocks on fiscal performance under two broad tax regimes. Stochastic simulations indicate high probabilities of fiscal overperformance in the short term when commodity prices are high. These probabilities deteriorate significantly, however, in the long term after the transitory positive commodity price shock has dissipated, particularly when lax fiscal policy is adopted during the period of the price boom.
Keywords:
WP; tax regime; price shock; price index; significance level; Commodity price shocks; structural VAR; tax regimes; pro-cyclical fiscal policy; commodity price shock; commodity exporter; stabilization scheme; GDP ratio; export commodity; GDP innovation; expenditure decision; commodity price booms; commodity price stabilization scheme; commodity prices result; commodity price setup; Commodity price fluctuations; Commodity prices; Commodity price indexes
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 47, No. 2
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper analyzes portfolio diversification, leverage, and financial contagion. It studies the extent to which basic principles of portfolio diversification explain “contagious selling” of financial assets when there are purely local shocks. The paper demonstrates that the elementary portfolio theory offers key insights into “contagion.” Most important, portfolio diversification and leverage are sufficient to explain why an investor will find it optimal to significantly reduce all risky asset positions when an adverse shock impacts just one asset.
Keywords:
SP; price; currency; fiscal policy; monetary policy; CS ratio; commodity price; currency crash; risky assets; price shock; Commodity prices; Currencies; Commodity price shocks; Agricultural commodities; Eastern Europe; Global; Asia and Pacific; Africa; Middle East; Western Hemisphere
Cover IMF Working Papers
Output Decline and Recovery in Uzbekistan: Past Performance and Future Prospects
Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer
and
Mr. Günther Taube
What explains Uzbekistan’s unusually mild “transformational recession” and its moderate recovery during 1996-97? We examine potential biases in output measurement, the role of “special factors”—including initial production structure, natural resources, and public investment policies—and sectoral output developments. The main findings are (i) Uzbekistan’s relatively favorable output record is not an artifact of measurement alone; (ii) public investment has had no significant effects on growth; (iii) the mildness of Uzbekistan’s transitional recession can be accounted for by its favorable initial production structure and its self-sufficiency in energy; (iv) unless reforms are significantly accelerated, medium-term growth prospects are mediocre.
Keywords:
WP; Uzbek experience; output performance; reform policy; private sector; Uzbek growth path; Uzbekistan; Transition; Growth; Output; Sustainability; unmeasured Uzbekistan effect; Uzbek authorities; Uzbek growth experience; consumer goods; Agricultural commodities; Structural reforms; Agricultural sector; Public investment spending; Baltics