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Middle East and Central Asia > Kyrgyz Republic

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Cover Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2024
Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2024
Navigating the Evolving Geoeconomic Landscape
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa and Caucasus and Central Asia regions is projected to strengthen in the near term, but only to the extent that current challenges abate. Ongoing conflicts and oil production cuts are dampening economic performance, and medium-term growth prospects have weakened over the past two decades. Moreover, high uncertainty looms, with key risks including escalating conflicts, increased geoeconomic fragmentation, and commodity price volatility. To boost growth and create jobs—especially for women and youth—reform priorities include strengthening governance, encouraging private sector investment, and advancing financial development.

Keywords:
Middle East; North Africa; Caucasus; Central Asia; Gaza; Sudan; Lebanon; trade patterns; economic growth; reforms; growth prospects; shocks; conflicts; uncertainty; economic performance; growth prospects; risks; oil production cuts; OPEC+; investment; geoeconomic fragmentation; IMF; governance; medium-term; capital deepening; women; youth; employment; commodity price volatility; private sector; financial development; CCA region; CCA economy; CCA country; IMF staff calculation; oil exporter; Total factor productivity; Financial sector development; Oil exports; Inflation; Labor force participation; East Africa; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Managing Foreign Exchange Rate Risk: Capacity Development for Public Debt Managers in Emerging Market and Low-Income Countries
Thordur Jonasson
,
Sheheryar Malik
,
Kay Chung
, and
Michael G. Papaioannou
This paper presents some sound practices for foreign-currency risk management in developing countries and outlines instruments for managing sovereign debt portfolio currency exposures. Adoption of a debt management strategy with well-defined targets for foreign exchange risk is a critical element of public debt risk management. To this end, public debt managers often need to face with complex strategic and operational matters related to public debt hedging practices, including the use of derivatives. In this context, we highlight the main institutional challenges in the management of foreign exchange risk in sovereign debt portfolios and discuss the overall implementation of a foreign exchange risk-management strategy.
Keywords:
exchange rate risk risk management; debt portfolio; public debt manager; currency exposure; risk-management strategy; Government debt management; Debt management; Currencies; Exchange rate risk; Foreign currency debt; Asia and Pacific; Sub-Saharan Africa; Middle East; North Africa; Central Asia; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kyrgyz Republic
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Kyrgyz economy grew strongly in 2023, led by construction and trade, despite the challenging regional environment. Tax revenue mobilization improved, and public debt declined. Headline inflation fell from 14.7 percent in December 2022 to 7.3 percent in December 2023, supported by a marked reduction in food and fuel inflation, but demand pressures have kept core inflation elevated. The official current account deficit has remained significant due to the decline in net remittance inflows, lower gold exports, and unrecorded re-exports. Output is expected to grow at its potential rate of 4 percent in the medium term, inflation decline to mid-single digits, and public debt remain contained. Current favorable macroeconomic conditions present a window of opportunity to strengthen the policy framework and raise growth prospects through structural reforms. The priorities are strengthening governance, including management and privatization of state-owned enterprises, enhancing competition, reforming the electricity sector, and strengthening social safety nets.
Keywords:
staff appraisal; Kyrgyz authorities; policy recommendation; January monetary policy meeting; headline inflation; Debt sustainability analysis; Government finance statistics; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Monetary Policy Frameworks and Communication in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Omer Faruk Akbal
,
Klakow Akepanidtaworn
,
Ezequiel Cabezon
,
Mariarosaria Comunale
,
Mrs. Marina Conesa Martinez
, and
Ms. Filiz D Unsal
Central banks in Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) have been enhancing their monetary policy frameworks in the last decade, and are at different stages of the transition to a type of inflation targeting regimes. This paper documents their progress and the current state of their monetary policy framework, utilizing the IAPOC index developed by Unsal and others (2022) covering Independence and Accountability, Policy and Operational Strategy, and Communications, as well as drawing from central banks’ laws and websites. Additionally, an analysis of press releases from CCA central banks is conducted to evaluate their features, content, and tones. The findings highlight the need for further improvements in the areas of Independence and Accountability, as well as Communications, despite some recent advancements in the latter.
Keywords:
Caucasus and Central Asia; Monetary Policy Frameworks; Communication.; CCA inflation; central banks in Caucasus and Central Asia; IMF working paper No. 2023/251; IAPOC Index; CCA country; Monetary policy communication; Inflation targeting; Inflation; Market interest rates; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financial Development and Growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Mr. Tigran Poghosyan
This paper presents stylized facts on financial development in the CCA countries relative to their EM and LIC peers and assesses how financial development can boost growth in the CCA. Drawing on IMF’s multidimensional index of financial development, we find that CCA countries have made progress following the independence in early 1990s. However, the progress was uneven across the CCA, resulting in a divergence of financial development over time and mixed performance relative to EM and LIC peers. Financial institutions have progressed the most, while financial markets remain underdevelped in most CCA countries except Kazakhstan. In terms of sub-indicators of financial development, financial access has expanded markedly, while the depth of financial intermediation has remained largely shallow and efficiency of financial intermediation has fluctuated over time. Standard growth regressions suggest that CCA countries with relatively lower level of financial development have scope to boost annual growth rates between 0.5-2.5 percent by reaching the level of financial development of frontier CCA countries.
Keywords:
Caucasus and Central Asia; financial development; output growth; CCA country; financial markets market index; growth regression; LIC peer; growth in the Caucasus; Financial sector development; Stock markets; Financial statistics; Central Asia and the Caucasus; CCA economy; CCA LIC; CCA EM; financial institution index
Cover Departmental Papers
Macroprudential Policies to Enhance Financial Stability in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Padamja Khandelwal
,
Ezequiel Cabezon
,
Mr. Sanan Mirzayev
, and
Rayah Al-Farah
Limited economic diversification has made the economies of the Caucasus and Central Asia particularly vulnerable to external shocks. The economies in the region are heavily reliant on oil and mining exports as well as remittances. In some countries, tourism and capital flows also play a prominent role in aggregate economic activity.
Keywords:
Financial risks; financial supervision and regulation; macroprudential policy; credit cycles; CCA country; CCA economy; CCA contribution; economies of the Caucasus and Central Asia; credit downturn; banking sector crisis; credit cycle analysis methodology; Macroprudential policy; Credit; Credit gaps; Countercyclical capital buffers; Macroprudential policy instruments; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover Departmental Papers
Managing Financial Sector Risks from the COVID-19 Crisis in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru
and
Klakow Akepanidtaworn
The COVID-19 crisis raises the risk of renewed financial sector pressures in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region in the period ahead. Bank distress and its economic and fiscal fallout have been recurring features of many CCA countries, as seen after the global financial crisis and the 2014–15 oil price shock. Strong policy responses have delayed the full impact of the COVID crisis so far, but financial sector risks will increase once public support is phased out. If these risks are not preemptively addressed, banks’ ability to lend during the recovery phase could be impaired and there may be a need for costly public interventions, as in the past.
Keywords:
Financial risks; stress tests; financial supervision and regulation; CCA country; CCA banking systems; FX risk; CCA bank's capital adequacy ratios; FX-induced credit risk; Financial sector risk; Commercial banks; Credit risk; Nonperforming loans; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover Policy Papers
Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust—Fifth Tranche of Debt Service Relief in The Context of The COVID-19 Pandemic
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
,
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
, and
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The Executive Board approved a two-step approach consisting of (i) an immediate approval of the disbursement of a fourth tranche of debt service relief to all qualified beneficiary countries covering the period from October 16, 2021 through January 10, 2022, and (ii) consideration by January 2022 of a final tranche of CCRT debt service relief through April 13, 2022 based on a brief Board paper with an assessment of resources at that time. In accordance with the two-step approach, this paper provides a brief overview on recent developments in CCRT-eligible countries followed by an update on the CCRT’s funding status and resources assessment.
Keywords:
CCRT; debt service relief; CCRT instrument; CCRT debt service relief; CCRT resource; COVID cash buffer; Debt relief; Debt service; COVID-19; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust—Fourth Tranche of Debt Service Relief in The Context of The Covid-19 Pandemic and Approval of Additional Beneficiary Member Countries
International Monetary Fund
The paper provides brief updates for each CCRT-eligible country on its policy responses to the pandemic and on staff’s assessments of these policies, the use of resources freed up by debt service relief, and the implementation of governance safeguards commitments. The paper also provides an update on the financial situation of the CCRT. The generous support from 17 donor countries and the EU has mobilized SDR 609 million in new pledges since the onset of the pandemic.
Keywords:
debt service relief; CCRT country; fund engagement; CCRT debt relief; CCRT resource; Debt relief; Debt service; COVID-19; Balance of payments need; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Tajikistan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
Tajik banking sector; sample estimation; Tajik rail road; SOE Sector; B. tax revenue performance; Tajik cement; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; Tajik telecom; Fiscal risks; Commercial banks; Contingent liabilities; Nonperforming loans; Central Asia