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Middle East and Central Asia > Kyrgyz Republic

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Cover Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2024
Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2024
Navigating the Evolving Geoeconomic Landscape
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa and Caucasus and Central Asia regions is projected to strengthen in the near term, but only to the extent that current challenges abate. Ongoing conflicts and oil production cuts are dampening economic performance, and medium-term growth prospects have weakened over the past two decades. Moreover, high uncertainty looms, with key risks including escalating conflicts, increased geoeconomic fragmentation, and commodity price volatility. To boost growth and create jobs—especially for women and youth—reform priorities include strengthening governance, encouraging private sector investment, and advancing financial development.

Keywords:
Middle East; North Africa; Caucasus; Central Asia; Gaza; Sudan; Lebanon; trade patterns; economic growth; reforms; growth prospects; shocks; conflicts; uncertainty; economic performance; growth prospects; risks; oil production cuts; OPEC+; investment; geoeconomic fragmentation; IMF; governance; medium-term; capital deepening; women; youth; employment; commodity price volatility; private sector; financial development; CCA region; CCA economy; CCA country; IMF staff calculation; oil exporter; Total factor productivity; Financial sector development; Oil exports; Inflation; Labor force participation; East Africa; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Impact of International Migration on Inclusive Growth: A Review
Zsoka Koczan
,
Magali Pinat
, and
Mr. Dmitriy L Rozhkov
International migration is an important channel of material improvement for individuals and their offspring. The movement of people across country borders, especially from less developed to richer countries, has a substantial impact in several dimensions. First, it affects the migrants themselves by allowing them to achieve higher income as a result of their higher productivity in the destination country. It also increases the expected income for their offspring. Second, it affects the destination country through the impact on labor markets, productivity, innovation, demographic structure, fiscal balance, and criminality. Third, it can have a significant impact on the countries of origin. It may lead to loss of human capital, but it also creates a flow of remittances and increases international connections in the form of trade, FDI, and technological transfers. This paper surveys our understanding of how migration affects growth and inequality through the impact on migrants themselves as well as on the destination and origin countries.
Keywords:
International Migration; Inequality; Economic growth; complementarity effect; consequences of migration; E. country case; origin country; wage effect; Migration; Remittances; Labor markets; Wages; Income; Global; Eastern Europe; costs of emigration; impact of migration; wage effect of migration
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Middle East and Central Asia
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Middle East and Central Asia
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

Countries in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) region and those in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) responded to the COVID-19 pandemic with swift and stringent measures to mitigate its spread and impact but continue to face an uncertain and difficult environment. Oil exporters were particularly hard hit by a “double-whammy” of the economic impact of lockdowns and the resulting sharp decline in oil demand and prices. Containing the health crisis, cushioning income losses, and expanding social spending remain immediate priorities. However, governments must also begin to lay the groundwork for recovery and rebuilding stronger, including by addressing legacies from the crisis and strengthening inclusion.

Keywords:
public health; reopening; rebuilding; oil revenue; OPEC+; REO; oil exporter; MCD country; oil importer; IMF staff calculation; MCD firm; MCD region
Cover IMF Working Papers
SME Financial Inclusion for Sustained Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia
Mishel Ghassibe
,
Maximiliano Appendino
, and
Samir Elsadek Mahmoudi
This paper offers empirical evidence that greater financial inclusion of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) can promote higher economic growth and employment, especially in the Middle East and Central Asia regions. First, we show that countries with higher SME financial inclusion exhibit more effective monetary policy transmission and tax collection. Second, we find substantial employment and labor productivity growth gains at the firm level from access to credit, gains that are higher for SMEs. We also obtain evidence of a substantial positive impact on SME employment and labor productivity growth from improved credit bureau coverage and insolvency regimes. Finally, cross-country aggregate evidence confirms the employment and growth gains from SME financial inclusion, which appear larger in the Middle East and Central Asia than in other regions.
Keywords:
WP; SME financial inclusion; Small and Medium Sized Enterprises; Financial Inclusion; Economic Growth; monetary policy transmission; growth gain; output gap; SME Financial inclusion index; labor productivity gain; SME employment; employment growth; Small and medium enterprises; Labor productivity; Productivity; Employment; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover Policy Papers
A Strategy for IMF Engagement on Social Spending: Case Studies
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
,
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, &amp
, and
Review Department
This paper uses case studies to explore the nature and extent of past IMF engagement on social spending issues and to draw lessons for future engagement.
Keywords:
PP; IMF staff; Policy advice; public spending; spending efficiency; IMF Policy; IMF engagement; fiscal policy; IMF-supported program; Social assistance spending; Pension spending; Fiscal sustainability; Health care spending; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Identifying Structural Reform Gaps in Emerging Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia
Mr. Norbert Funke
,
Asel Isakova
, and
Maksym Ivanyna
Using data from the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report as an example, this paper compares structural indicators for 25 countries in Emerging Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia with a generic country with similar charactersitics that is 40 percent richer as well as a country with the average EU income. This comparison suggests that improvements will be particularly crucial in the areas of institutions, financial market development, infrastructure, goods and labor market efficiency and areas related to innovation. For the generally more ambitious goal of reaching average EU income, the reform needs are correspondingly larger. The methodology focuses on (approximate) comparisons between countries and does not try to establish the link between structural reforms and growth. While we test for changes in empirical specifications, caveats relate to the quality of structural indicators, possible non-linearities, and reform complementarities. The approach can be applied to other indicators and at a more granular level.
Keywords:
WP; structural reforms; CESEE; Caucasus; Central Asia; reform gaps; country indicator k; ECA country; reform indicator; better-off country; country knowledge; Personal income; Labor markets; Financial sector development; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
The Kyrgyz Republic: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper on Kyrgyz Republic highlights that the period 2009 through filled with symbolic events marked a new milestone in the Kyrgyz Republic development and will enter the country’s history as the period of strength test for the Kyrgyz statehood and entire public administration system including socio-political, economic, environmental, financial and other areas of development management. The country development background during that period included the world financial crisis and growing uncertainty on world markets which created risks for all market actors including the Kyrgyzstan’s key trade partners such as Russia, Kazakhstan, and China. The government officially declared the country’s sustainable development-oriented policy. For Kyrgyzstan as a country with its still high poverty level, particularly in rural areas, and limited natural and financial resources, the sustainable development policy seems today’s logically and politically justified choice. The sustainable development model itself suggests striving for systemic, comprehensiveness, and balance in development. Transition to sustainable development suggests considering economic growth through the prism of human values and reasonable use of natural resources.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Kyrgyz Republic government; staff training; community development; customs union; education system; feasibility study; foreign trade; government regulation; labor market; national budget; sustainable development; value chain; economic system; civil society; risk management; Sustainable development; Global; Central Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Measuring the Informal Economy in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Mr. Yasser Abdih
and
Leandro Medina
This study estimates the size of the informal economy, and the relative contribution of each underlying factor, for the Caucasus and Central Asia countries in 2008. Using a Multiple Indicator-Multiple Cause model, we find that a burdensome tax system, rigid labor market, low institutional quality, and excessive regulation in financial and products markets are determinant factors in explaining the size of the informal economy, which ranges from 26 percent of GDP in Kyrgyz Republic to around 35 percent of GDP in Armenia. Furthermore, the results show that higher levels of informality increase the levels of self employment and the percentage of currency held outside the banking system.
Keywords:
WP; financial market; regulation; unobserved informal economy; Informal economy; latent variable; Caucasus and Central Asia; informal economy variance; product market restriction; size of the informal economy; informal economy size; informal economy for the Caucasus and Central Asia; Commodity markets; Tax incidence; Self-employment; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover Policy Papers
2011 Review of Conditionality - Technical Appendices
International Monetary Fund
This section provides the background studies relating to dimensions of Fund policy on conditionality. Appendix 1 provides a review of Fund experience with coordination, both in a low-income country (LIC) setting (in African programs) and in an emerging market and advanced economy setting in the European Union (EU) and Euro Area (EA). Appendix 2 summarizes the recent changes to debt limits in LICs and provides an assessment of the implementation of this policy in the early stages (up to mid-February 2011). Appendix 3 reviews the experience of countries with the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) and Precautionary Credit Line (PCL)-supported programs. Appendix 4 examines the impact of the 2009 Special Drawing Rights (SDR) allocation on program design
Keywords:
PP; country authorities; program country; debt management; fiscal policy; reform agenda; labor market; program countries authorities; exchange rate; central bank; mission chief; current account; country authority respondent; Debt limits; Structural reforms; Labor markets; Poverty reduction strategy; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Medium-Term Development Program: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; budget deficit; civil society; poverty level; customs union; development program; public-private partnership