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Middle East and Central Asia > Kyrgyz Republic

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Remittances and Social Safety Nets During COVID-19: Evidence From Georgia and the Kyrgyz Republic
Nordine Abidi
,
Mehdi Akhbari
,
Bashar Hlayhel
, and
Sahra Sakha
Remittance flows in emerging market and developing economies were surprisingly resilient during the COVID-19 crisis, providing much-needed income support for remittance-receiving households. However, households were impacted differently across income distributions. Using novel high-frequency household panel data for Georgia and the Kyrgyz Republic and a difference-in-differences approach, we find that as household income fell during the pandemic, remittance-receiving households were more affected than non-remittance-receiving households. Importantly, we find that the incomes of poor, remittance-receiving households in the Kyrgyz Republic were more adversely affected than their non-remittance-receiving counterparts. In contrast, in Georgia, affluent remittance-receiving households experienced more significant income declines than poor remittance-receiving households. This heterogeneous impact can largely be explained by variations in the effectiveness of social safety nets in the two countries. Our results have important policy implications. Although remittances remained resilient during the pandemic, they affected households differently. As such, policymakers should prioritize addressing gaps in social safety nets to support the most vulnerable.
Keywords:
COVID-19; Remittances; Central Asia; remittance-receiving household; household income; remittance flow; households in Georgia; remittance-sending country; remittance receiver; Income; Social assistance spending; Income distribution; North America; Middle East and Central Asia; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses governance challenges in the Kyrgyz Republic. This paper aims to assess various aspects of governance in the Kyrgyz Republic and identify some of the key challenges in this area. Governance reforms in the Kyrgyz Republic can leverage linkages to the global economy and structural transformation to deliver higher and more inclusive growth. Combating corruption and strengthening governance, including of state-owned enterprises and public finances, and improving the regulatory environment and the anti-corruption; and Anti-money Laundering and Combating Financial Terrorism (AML/CFT) framework, are critical steps to improve the business climate and promote private sector-led growth. Reforms in these areas have a significant potential to increase efficiency of allocation of public resources and the delivery of public services. The IMF’s analytical work has shown that governance reforms could raise the country’s growth rates by about 1.2 percentage points per year. Strengthening control of corruption and regulatory quality, reforming state-owned enterprises, and enhancing transparency and accountability of the public sector are important priorities to pursue.
Keywords:
climate change prospects in the Kyrgyz Republic; poverty in the Kyrgyz republic; developments in poverty; inclusion indicator; climate change policy; SSNS poverty mitigation effect; poverty rates in the Kyrgyz Republic; Climate change; Social assistance spending; Greenhouse gas emissions; Climate policy; Global; Central Asia; Middle East and Central Asia; Central and Eastern Europe; Europe
Cover Policy Papers
A Strategy for IMF Engagement on Social Spending: Case Studies
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
,
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, &amp
, and
Review Department
This paper uses case studies to explore the nature and extent of past IMF engagement on social spending issues and to draw lessons for future engagement.
Keywords:
PP; IMF staff; Policy advice; public spending; spending efficiency; IMF Policy; IMF engagement; fiscal policy; IMF-supported program; Social assistance spending; Pension spending; Fiscal sustainability; Health care spending; Africa
Cover Departmental Papers
A Growth-Friendly Path for Building Fiscal Buffers in the Caucuses and Central Asia
Mr. Edward R Gemayel
,
Ms. Lorraine Ocampos
,
Matteo Ghilardi
, and
Mr. James Aylward
Since 2014, large and persistent external shocks have hit the CCA region, particularly a slump in global commodity prices and slower growth in its key economic partners. Fiscal accommodation, along with currency adjustment, has helped the CCA mitigate the impact of the external shocks. However, amid weakening revenues, increased public spending has widened budget deficits, weakened external balances, and increased public debts. Fiscal policy and strengthening fiscal frameworks must play a central role in helping build buffers and ensuring debt sustainability while supporting growth. This requires (1) tightening fiscal policies to reduce deficits to help restore external balance and fiscal sustainability, (2) strengthening tax systems and tax collection and tilting expenditure toward a more productive and growth-enhancing composition, and (3) implementing public financial management reforms and strengthening fiscal institutions, including through fiscal rules.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; CCA country; country; tax revenue; oil exporter; oil importer; Tajikistan share; Tajikistan's measure; increase revenue productivity; GDP ratio; commodity exporter; gross investment; Turkmenistan share; review taxation; Oil; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover Policy Papers
FY2016 - FY2018 Medium-Term Budget
International Monetary Fund
For the net administrative budget, the FY 16–18 medium-term budget (MTB) proposal includes: In FY 16, an unchanged budget envelope in real terms, for the fourth year in a row. To accommodate new and ongoing strategic priorities of the Fund within a flat envelope, efforts to reallocate resources away from lower-priority activities and achieve efficiency gains were stepped up both at the departmental level and across the institution. Savings measures implying a reallocation of resources of close to 5 percent of the net administrative budget were identified through this process. The bulk of these savings would be used to help meet the new priorities highlighted in the Global Policy Agenda and in Management’s Key Goals, while preserving room at the departmental level to further reduce work pressures, phase in the new streamlining measures and, more generally, cope with business uncertainties and unanticipated demands. This robust prioritization effort implies difficult trade-offs and the willingness to cut lower-priority activities in order to create space for new initiatives. For FY 17–18, as a baseline assumption, a flat real budget envelope as well. Against the backdrop of a robust income position, the Fund’s medium-term budget formulation is guided primarily by considerations of prudence and credibility. The medium-term spending path will depend on new demands placed on the institution, and the scope for further reprioritization, and will be reassessed in the context of the FY 17–19 budget.
Keywords:
PP; right; PPM discussion; Fund; budget envelope; program review; Fund resource; staff paper; Budget planning and preparation; Personal income; Credit; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Sixth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility; Staff Report; and Press Release
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Political context. On April 3, 2014, parliament approved a new government, led by Mr. Otorbaev, the new Prime Minister. The ministers of economy and finances kept their positions. Moreover, on May 7, 2014, a new chairperson was appointed for the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (NBKR). No major changes in economic policies are expected. In February 2014, parliament approved a new deal with Centerra, ending a two-year dispute over the Kumtor gold mine. Background. In the first quarter, growth moderated to 5.6 percent (year-on-year) after the 2013 growth spike at 10.5 percent related to an unexpectedly high level of gold production. In the same period, inflation picked up slightly, owing to depreciation of the som in response to pressures from the depreciation of the Russian ruble and the devaluation of the Kazakh tenge. The NBKR intervened heavily to mitigate these pressures, but has recently rebuilt reserves to ensure a more comfortable level of over three months of imports. The current account is expected to deteriorate this year because of higher imports related to large public investments and FDI-financed infrastructure projects. Fiscal performance in 2013 was better than expected, with a deficit of 4 percent of GDP, but revenue headwinds call for a cautious budget in 2014. The medium-term outlook remains broadly favorable, provided prudent macroeconomic policies continue and are supported with structural reforms, including tax policy and administration reforms, public financial management (PFM) reforms, and implementation of FSAP recommendations, in particular the Banking Code. Program. The program is broadly on track, with all end-December 2013 quantitative performance criteria and all but one indicative targets (IT) met for end-December 2013. Although three March 2014 ITs were missed, since then there has been progress in rebuilding reserves and enhancing tax collections. The two structural benchmarks (SBs) for end-December were met, and the SB on signing the contract with one of the big four audit companies to audit the Debt Resolution Agency (DEBRA) is expected to be completed with delay. The remaining SB on introducing the Treasury Single Account (TSA) on a pilot basis was missed. Overall, the Kyrgyz authorities are completing a broadly successful three-year ECF arrangement, although further reforms will be needed to preserve and deepen the accomplishments. Despite occasional domestic political turmoil, the authorities have regained and maintained macroeconomic stability, consolidated the fiscal position, implemented a new monetary framework, and embarked on a comprehensive banking sector reform. The authorities have not yet expressed their intentions regarding a successor program.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; ECF arrangement; Kyrgyz authorities; SDR
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Kyrgyz Republic—Sixth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses Kyrgyz Republic’s Sixth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility. Following exceptionally strong performance in 2013, growth is moderating to a more sustainable pace. The program is broadly on track, with all end-December 2013 quantitative performance criteria and all but one indicative targets (IT) met for end-December 2013. Although three March 2014 ITs were missed, since then there has been progress in rebuilding reserves and enhancing tax collections. The two structural benchmarks for end-December were met. The IMF staff supports the completion of the sixth and final review.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; ECF arrangement; Kyrgyz authorities; SDR; Kyrgyz government; state government; Kyrgyz portfolio; Kyrgyz program; private sector; bank resolution; Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Third Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria—Staff Report; Staff Supplement and Statement; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kyrgyz Republic.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The Kyrgyz Republic has stabilized with the formation of a new coalition, but political uncertainty remains. Despite a slump in gold production and delays in donor financing, monetary and fiscal policies remained prudent. Improving the business climate, good governance, and strong institutions remain key to sustaining strong growth over the medium term. Fiscal consolidation with strong revenue measures and prudent expenditure policies are instrumental in safeguarding macroeconomic stability. More forceful reform efforts are needed to ensure long-term viability of the banking sector.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Kyrgyz authorities; revenue shortfall; government's priority expenditure; staff appraisal; SDR; IMF's executive board; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Total expenditures; Global; Central Asia
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2011, Middle East and Central Asia
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2011, Middle East and Central Asia
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

The Arab Spring holds the promise of improved living standards and a more prosperous future for the peoples of the Middle East and North Africa region. At the same time, the region is witnessing uncertainty and economic pressures from domestic and external sources, which will likely be exacerbated by the recent worsening of the global economy. The main challenge in the short term will be to manage expectations while maintaining economic stability. To that end, better-targeted subsidies and transfers will help free up resources for investment in infrastructure, education, and health. Policies aimed at fostering inclusive growth will also help cement the longer-term benefits of the ongoing changes in the region. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, the economic outlook is broadly positive. Exports and remittances--key growth drivers in 2010--are continuing to grow solidly, helping the recovery gain firm momentum. At the same time, uncertainties over the robustness of the global recovery constitute a downside risk to the growth outlook. Key challenges facing the region over the medium term are to create jobs and foster high and inclusive growth.

Keywords:
REO; oil importer; IMF staff calculation; country; importer; oil exporter; MENAP country; CCA country; Oil; Inflation; Unemployment; Oil prices; Fuel prices; Global; Europe; Maghreb; Middle East and Central Asia; Middle East; North Africa; GCC country; commodity metals price; Remittances
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Impact of the Global Financial Crisison Microfinance and Policy Implications
Gabriel Di Bella
The global financial crisis affected microfinance institutions (MFIs) as lending growth was constrained by scarcer borrowing opportunities, while the economic slowdown negatively impacted asset quality and profitability. It also brought to the fore the relatively high interest rates that MFIs charge to their (low-income) customers. This paper revisits the issue of systemic risk of MFIs, and finds that contrary to the evidence before the crisis, MFI performance is correlated not only to domestic economic conditions but also to changes in international capital markets. It also presents an empirical analysis of lending rates with the purpose of informing policy decisions, and finds that loan sizes, productivity, and MFI age contribute to explain differences in lending rate levels. This suggest that regulation (and policies) promoting MFI competition, and innovation in lending technologies have a better chance to result in decreased lending rates.
Keywords:
WP; lending rate; MFI grouping; institution type; financial crisis; MFI portfolio; MFI productivity; return on equity; global financial crisis; systemic risk; microfinance; lending rate fundamentals; show coefficient; MFI transparency; MFI institution; MFI performance; MFI deterioration; MFI exposure; International capital markets; Loans; Public expenditure review; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; Central America; Eastern Europe; South America