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Middle East and Central Asia > Kyrgyz Republic

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper undertakes a detailed analysis of the inflation dynamics and its determinants in the Kyrgyz Republic to shed light on the unprecedented inflationary surge since 2021. It employs two complementary methodologies to model a complex interplay between domestic and global factors, and policy variables. The paper constructs a new comprehensive measure of inflation expectations, encompassing both adaptive and forward-looking components, and as an additional novelty introduces external variables to the Phillips curve framework. The empirical analysis suggests that in addition to global food prices, which have historically driven inflation in the country, the role of domestic factors have become more prominent. On the other hand, the paper finds a much stronger contribution of liquidity conditions to inflation. This suggests a disconnect between policy interest rates and market liquidity, which needs to be addressed for better functioning of monetary policy transmission. The main policy implication is that to strengthen the effectiveness of monetary policy and support National Bank of Kyrgyz Republic’s intended transition to an inflation-targeting framework, excess liquidity needs to be drained and brought in conformity with the policy rate. This will require discontinuation of central bank’s participation in the domestic gold market, which is the main source of liquidity injections.
Keywords:
frontier analysis; dynamics in the Kyrgyz Republic; trade fragmentation; inflation expectation; Kyrgyz export; Inflation; Value-added tax; Income and capital gains taxes; Personal income tax; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Tax Revenue Downturns: Anatomy and Links to Imports
Kun Li
and
Pablo Lopez Murphy
We study historical tax revenue downturn episodes—where tax revenue-to-GDP ratios decline sharply—and explore the link between tax revenues and imports. We document that downturn episodes of at least 1 percentage point of GDP in one year are common. The tax types that account for these episodes are different in advanced, emerging and developing, and oil producing countries. We find that tax revenue downturns and import contractions have a statistically significant link. Finally, we show that changes in imports are a statistically significant determinant of changes in tax revenues even when controlling for changes in the output gap and in the terms of trade.
Keywords:
WP; tax-revenue-to-GDP ratio; ratio; tax revenue downturn; downturn; revenue-to-GDP
Cover IMF Working Papers
Tax Potential vs. Tax Effort: A Cross-Country Analysis of Armenia's Stubbornly Low Tax Collection
Mr. David A. Grigorian
and
Mr. Hamid R Davoodi
Despite recording double digit growth since 2000, Armenia's tax-to-GDP ratio has been fairly stable at about 14½ percent. This paper catalogues a range of factors that may account for Armenia's stubbornly for tax collection by benchmarking Armenia's tax-to-GDP against some comparator countries and conducting an extensive econometric study of the main determinants of tax collection. We find empirical support for the hypothesis that the persistence of Armenia's low tax-GDP ratio can be traced to persistence of weak institutions and a large shadow economy. The gap between the potential and actual tax collection in Armenia could be as high as 6½ percent of GDP. We conclude with some policy recommendations that, if adopted, can boost revenue buoyancy.
Keywords:
WP; Armenia; tax revenue; tax potential; tax collection; institutions; shadow economy; tax-to-GDP ratio; CIS country; tax effort; revenue buoyancy; VAT collection; tax performance; tax morale; small share; Income and capital gains taxes; Tax administration core functions; Informal economy; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Armenia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
Although Armenia itself has a population of only about 3 million, an estimated 8 million Armenians live abroad. In this paper, the size and the sources of remittances to Armenia are first discussed. Then, the appropriate definition of remittances and subsequently present estimates of the macroeconomic effects of remittances to Armenia are outlined. Remittances play a significant role in the Armenian economy. They amount to between US$250 million and US$1 billion per year, and constitute from 25 percent to 80 percent of remittance receivers’ incomes.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; remittance; tax; VAT; Armenia; GDP; revenue; remittances sender; remittances to Armenia; GDP growth; traditional remittance; remittances component; Remittances; Financial sector development; Tax administration core functions; Commercial banks; Middle East; Central and Eastern Europe; Eastern Europe; Baltics; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Russian Flat Tax Reform
Mr. Michael Keen
,
Mr. Alexander D Klemm
, and
Anna Ivanova
Russia dramatically reduced its higher rates of personal income tax (PIT) in 2001 establishing a single marginal rate at the low level of 13 percent. In the following year, real revenue from the PIT actually increased by about 26 percent. This 'flat tax' experience has attracted much attention (and emulation) among policymakers, making it perhaps the most important tax reform of recent years. But it has been little studied. This paper asks whether the strong revenue performance of the PIT was itself a consequence of this reform, using both macro evidence and, in particular, micro-level data on the experiences of individuals and households affected by the reform to varying degrees. It concludes that there is no evidence of a strong supply side effect of the reform. Compliance, however, did improve quite substantially-by about one third according to our estimates-though it remains unclear whether this was due to the parametric reforms or to accompanying changes in enforcement.
Keywords:
WP; wage rate; gross income; tax rate
Cover IMF Working Papers
Reforming Tax Systems: Experience of the Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union
Vahram Stepanyan
Starting in the early 1990s, the Baltics, Russia, and other (BRO) countries of the former Soviet Union initiated tax reforms that varied widely at the later stages. Recently, some of the BRO countries, basing decisions on the proposition that lowering of the top marginal income tax rate would significantly benefit economic development and increase tax compliance, have initiated a new stage of tax reforms. This paper reviews country experiences and suggests that (i) overall, there seems to be little evidence of a substantial improvement in income tax revenues resulting simply from a reduction in the top marginal tax rates, and (ii) in the BRO countries, the elasticity of the behavior of economic agents, in terms of labor supply, saving, and investment, with respect to income tax rates is not large, and a reduction of the existing income tax rates is unlikely to lead to a notable expansion of economic activity.
Keywords:
WP; reform; country; BRO country; tax system; rate; tax policy; tax reforms; reform effort; reform experience; reform initiative; tax reform objective; tax reform experience in BRO country; reform implementation; tax reform initiative; BRO countries tax policy reform; tax administration capacity; transition country; Personal income tax; Tax administration core functions; Income tax systems; Income and capital gains taxes; Baltics
Cover Deepening Structural Reform in Africa
Deepening Structural Reform in Africa
Lessons from East Asia
Ms. Laura Wallace

Abstract

As Africa looks for ways to deepen and accelerate the economic reform process, what lessons can East Asia offer? this book edited by Laura Wallace, records the proceedings of a seminar that involved a dynamic exchange of experiences by policy makers and senior government officials from Africa and East Asia and senior staff of international organizations. The seminar addressed themes such as the sequencing and pacing of structural reforms, the need for a broad political and social acceptance of change and reform, and the need for transparency and accoutability in economic management.

Keywords:
BOOK; government; country; textile parastatal; market; privatization program; privatization process; country specificity; structural adjustment program; Privatization; Public enterprises; Commercial banks; Tax administration core functions; Africa; East Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa; Central Asia; Southeast Asia