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Middle East and Central Asia > Kyrgyz Republic

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Managing Foreign Exchange Rate Risk: Capacity Development for Public Debt Managers in Emerging Market and Low-Income Countries
Thordur Jonasson
,
Sheheryar Malik
,
Kay Chung
, and
Michael G. Papaioannou
This paper presents some sound practices for foreign-currency risk management in developing countries and outlines instruments for managing sovereign debt portfolio currency exposures. Adoption of a debt management strategy with well-defined targets for foreign exchange risk is a critical element of public debt risk management. To this end, public debt managers often need to face with complex strategic and operational matters related to public debt hedging practices, including the use of derivatives. In this context, we highlight the main institutional challenges in the management of foreign exchange risk in sovereign debt portfolios and discuss the overall implementation of a foreign exchange risk-management strategy.
Keywords:
exchange rate risk risk management; debt portfolio; public debt manager; currency exposure; risk-management strategy; Government debt management; Debt management; Currencies; Exchange rate risk; Foreign currency debt; Asia and Pacific; Sub-Saharan Africa; Middle East; North Africa; Central Asia; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Taming Financial Dollarization: Determinants and Effective Policies – The Case of Uruguay
Mr. Mauricio Vargas
and
Jesus Sanchez
With some of the most significant levels of financial dollarization in the Western Hemisphere, Uruguay is characterized by extensive dollarization in both deposits and loans. While traditional factors like high inflation and substantial devaluations have been associated with such outcome, the enduring nature of dollarization in Uruguay also underscores the importance of structural elements. In formulating a holistic strategy to reduce dollarization, not only should there be an enhancement of the monetary policy framework aimed at maintaining low, stable inflation, but it should also consider the calibration of prudential policies such as currency-differentiated reserve requirements and foreign-currency credit repos.
Keywords:
Dollarization; Prudential Policies; Monetary Policy; Uruguay; Peru.; deposit dollarization; dollarization trend; credit repo; financial dollarization; dollarization level; Inflation; Reserve requirements; Exchange rates; Currencies; Global; South America; Caribbean; Western Hemisphere
Cover IMF Working Papers
Reducing Dollarization in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Mr. Selim Cakir
,
Maria Atamanchuk
,
Mazin Al Riyami
,
Nia Sharashidze
, and
Nathalie Reyes
Declining but still high dollarization rates in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region affect macroeconomic stability, monetary policy transmission, and financial sector development. Although several studies have investigated the dynamics of dollarization in the CCA, the relative roles of macrofinancial policies and financial market development in the de-dollarization process have not yet been assessed empirically. This paper takes stock of de-dollarization efforts and explores the short-term drivers of financial de‐dollarization in the CCA region. It highlights that there remains significant scope to further reduce dollarization through continued progress in strengthening macroeconomic policy frameworks and in developing markets and institutions.
Keywords:
Dollarization; Foreign Currency; Foreign Exchange; FX; Monetary Policy; Central Asia; Caucasus; CCA.; deposit dollarization; De-dollarization policy; credit dollarization; dollarization to a shock; dollarization in the CCA region; Currencies; Credit; De-dollarization; Central Asia and the Caucasus; rates in the Caucasus and Central Asia; dollarization to issuance; Reserve requirements
Cover IMF Working Papers
Digital Money and Central Bank Operations
Mr. Charles M. Kahn
,
Mr. Manmohan Singh
, and
Jihad Alwazir
The rise of new and proposed monetary vehicles, including CBDC, stablecoins, payment service providers etc., are unprecedented. An important question for central banks is the extent to which these innovations upend the role of and implementation of monetary policy. The paper focuses on the interest rate channel and if digital money (especially CBDC) will change monetary policy and central bank operations. We argue that new policy instruments make sense only to the extent that there is limited substitutability between the various payment sectors. We analyze trends in currency-in-circulation, and how it may impact central bank’s seigniorage, monetary base, and transactional velocity of digital money if money demand declines. Liquidity outside the monetary base will also be important to understand.
Keywords:
Base money; CBDC; central banking operations; currency in circulation; digital money; mobile phone operators; seigniorage; central bank operations Charles Kahn; jihad Alwazir; lender-of-last-resort facilities; payments assets; phone company payments account; central bank profits; central bank regulation; Monetary base; Digital currencies; Central Bank digital currencies; Currencies; Commercial banks
Cover IMF Working Papers
Impact of Remittances on Natural Rate of Dollarization—Trends in Caucasus and Central Asia
Rocio Gondo
,
Altynai Aidarova
, and
Mr. Manmohan Singh
This paper discusses migration and remittances trends, and calculates the natural (or benchmark) level of dollarization in Caucasus, Central Asia and others in the region. This natural level of dollarization is conceptually linked to the currency allocation in a portfolio of deposits to maximize welfare, in line with Ize and Levy Yeyati (2003). The fall in remittances due to the economic slowdown since the spread of COVID-19 affects the macroeconomic fundamentals that determine demand for foreign currency deposits. We calculate the natural dollarization level by integrating structural macroeconomic characteristics. We show that despite the reduction in deposit dollarization, there is still a gap with respect to the natural level of dollarization, especially in a scenario of (persistent) lower remittance inflows.
Keywords:
WP; remittance; deposit dollarization; natural rate of dollarization; Russia; COVID; remittances; Central Asia; Caucasus; remittance inflow; dollarization policy; benchmark dollarization; dollarization level; exchange rate depreciation; Dollarization; Exchange rates; Currencies; Income; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus; loan dollarization rate; Migration
Cover Spillover Notes
The Spillover Effects of Russia’s Economic Slowdown on Neighboring Countries
Ara Stepanyan
,
Agustin Roitman
,
Gohar Minasyan
,
Ms. Dragana Ostojic
, and
Mr. Natan P. Epstein
In the face of sharply lower oil prices and geopolitical tensions and sanctions, economic activity in Russia decelerated in late 2014, resulting in negative spillovers on Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and, to a lesser extent, on Baltic countries. The spillovers to eastern Europe have been limited. The degree of impact is commensurate with the level of these countries’ trade, remittances, and foreign direct investment (FDI) links with Russia. So far, policy action by the affected countries has focused on mitigating the immediate consequences of spillovers.
Keywords:
SN; Russia; exchange rate; CIS country; CIS oil importer; growth slowdown; import ban; exchange rate depreciation; growth shock; Spillovers; Oil prices; Exchange rates; Depreciation; Remittances; Baltics; Eastern Europe
Cover Departmental Papers
Exchange Rate Developments and Policies in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Mr. Mark A Horton
,
Hossein Samiei
,
Mr. Natan P. Epstein
, and
Mr. Kevin Ross
Since late 2014, exchange rates (ERs) and ER regimes of the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) countries have come under strong pressure. This reflects the decline of oil and other commodity prices, weaker growth in Russia and China, depreciation of the Russian ruble, and appreciation of the U.S. dollar, to which CCA currencies have historically been linked. Weaker fiscal and current account balances and increased dollarization have complicated the picture. CCA countries entered this period with closely managed ER regimes and, in many cases, currencies assessed by IMF staff to be overvalued. CCA central banks have price stability as their main policy objective, and most have relied on ER stability to achieve this objective. Thus, the first policy response involved intervention in local foreign exchange (FX) markets, often with limited communication. In this context, the IMF staff has reviewed ER policy advice and implementation strategies for CCA countries.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; government; country; central bank; High ER; CCA country; ER flexibility; ER Policy framework; ER regime; ER policy; CCA central banks; central bank communications; Communications in revenue administration; Currencies; Dollarization; Monetary policy frameworks; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
The Spillover Effects of Russia’s Economic Slowdown on Neighboring Countries
Ara Stepanyan
,
Agustin Roitman
,
Gohar Minasyan
,
Ms. Dragana Ostojic
, and
Mr. Natan P. Epstein
In the face of sharply lower oil prices and geopolitical tensions and sanctions, economic activity in Russia decelerated in late 2014, resulting in negative spillovers on Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and, to a lesser extent, on Baltic countries. The spillovers to eastern Europe have been limited. The degree of impact is commensurate with the level of these countries’ trade, remittances, and foreign direct investment (FDI) links with Russia. So far, policy action by the affected countries has focused on mitigating the immediate consequences of spillovers.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; Russia; exchange rate; dollar; CIS country; CIS oil importer; import ban; growth slowdown; exchange rate depreciation; growth shock; Spillovers; Oil prices; Exchange rates; Currencies; Depreciation; Baltics; Eastern Europe; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, May 2010, Middle East and Central Asia
Regional Economic Outlook, May 2010, Middle East and Central Asia
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

The May 2010 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia reports on the implications for the region of global economic developments and presents key policy challenges and recommendations. A resumption of capital inflows and the rebound in crude oil prices have aided the recovery in the oil-exporting countries of the Middle East and North Africa. The group of oil-importing countries is expected to show marginal increase in growth in response to a pickup in trade, investment, and bank credit. A key challenge for these countries is to enhance competitiveness to raise growth rates and generate employment. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, exports have begun to pick up, the decline in remittances appears to be slowing or reversing, and capital inflows have turned positive. For 2010, a recovery across the region is projected as the global economy, and in particular Russia, picks up speed. Overall, prospects for the region are improving and the regional impact of the Dubai crisis and events in Greece has been limited so far. Nevertheless, a repricing of sovereign debt cannot be excluded, adding a degree of uncertainty to the outlook.

Keywords:
REO; oil exporter; financing; government; CCA energy importer; oil importer; credit growth; CCA country; goods export; bond financing; Credit; Oil; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Bank credit; Financial statements; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Fifth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility: Staff Report; Staff Supplement; Staff Statement; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kyrgyz Republic
International Monetary Fund
The staff report for the Fifth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility on the Kyrgyz Republic highlights recent economic developments and performance. The current account deficit continued to widen on account of higher imports driven by strong demand, but was more than financed by private capital inflows. Policy discussions focused on the challenges posed by the sharp uptick in inflation in the context of exogenous shocks and global financial turbulence. Continued fiscal restraint is important both for reducing inflation and for enhancing debt sustainability.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; growth facility; Kyrgyz authorities; Three-Year arrangement; Three-Year; price pressure; policy dilemma; Monetary base; Debt sustainability; Global