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Middle East and Central Asia > Kyrgyz Republic

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Cover Departmental Papers
Managing Financial Sector Risks from the COVID-19 Crisis in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru
and
Klakow Akepanidtaworn
The COVID-19 crisis raises the risk of renewed financial sector pressures in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region in the period ahead. Bank distress and its economic and fiscal fallout have been recurring features of many CCA countries, as seen after the global financial crisis and the 2014–15 oil price shock. Strong policy responses have delayed the full impact of the COVID crisis so far, but financial sector risks will increase once public support is phased out. If these risks are not preemptively addressed, banks’ ability to lend during the recovery phase could be impaired and there may be a need for costly public interventions, as in the past.
Keywords:
Financial risks; stress tests; financial supervision and regulation; CCA country; CCA banking systems; FX risk; CCA bank's capital adequacy ratios; FX-induced credit risk; Financial sector risk; Commercial banks; Credit risk; Nonperforming loans; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Tajikistan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
Tajik banking sector; sample estimation; Tajik rail road; SOE Sector; B. tax revenue performance; Tajik cement; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; Tajik telecom; Fiscal risks; Commercial banks; Contingent liabilities; Nonperforming loans; Central Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
What Drives Bank Lending Spreads and Collateral Requirements in the Kyrgyz Republic
Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru
Limited access to finance and its high cost have contributed to relatively low levels of private investment and subpar growth in the Kyrgyz Republic. Interest rate spreads have moderated in recent years, but remain high from both a regional and global perspective. At the same time, collateral requirements applied by banks are onerous and also constrain the quantity of credit supplied. This paper identifies a range of factors that could lower spreads in the Kyrgyz Republic: more competition, higher capital, lower credit risk, larger loan size, lower deposit rates and external funding costs, as well as a stronger legal framework. Lower operating costs appear critical to reduce relatively higher spreads for small and medium-sized banks. At the same time, a stronger legal framework and greater transparency on borrowers’ creditworthiness would help reduce the high collateral requirements. Reforms in all these areas would support greater financial inclusion in the aftermath of the pandemic, and could thus be a key source of sustainable and inclusive growth in the Kyrgyz Republic.
Keywords:
WP; financial leverage; return on assets; market power; loan s; pressure bank; concentration index; bank loan; bank-financed investment; bank size; group loan; interest rate spread; intermediation cost; average cost; Loans; Collateral; Credit; Bank credit; Legal support in revenue administration; Central Asia; Bank lending spreads; financial intermediation; bank competition; uncollateralized loan; investment activity
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument and Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; Informational Annex; and Debt Sustainability Analysis
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses Kyrgyz Republic’s Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument and Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility. The COVID-19 pandemic has been hitting the Kyrgyz economy very hard and created an urgent balance of payments need. All sectors are being impacted with extreme severity as measures are being taken to stop the spread of the virus. Given the unprecedented high level of uncertainty, IMF emergency support under the Rapid Financing Instrument and the Rapid Credit Facility helps provide a backstop and increase buffers and shore up confidence. It also helps to preserve fiscal space for essential COVID- 19-related health expenditure and catalyze donor support. Banks’ capital and liquidity buffers need to be used to absorb credit losses and the liquidity squeeze. Once these buffers are exhausted, the central bank needs to show flexibility on the timing of bringing capital and liquidity above the minimum required, considering the length of the crisis. Expeditious donor support is needed to close the remaining balance of payments gap and ease the adjustment burden.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; IMF support; balance of payments gap
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument and Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; Informational Annex; and Debt Sustainability Analysis
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses Kyrgyz Republic’s Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument and Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility. The COVID-19 pandemic has been hitting the Kyrgyz economy very hard and created an urgent balance of payments need. All sectors are being impacted with extreme severity as measures are being taken to stop the spread of the virus. Given the unprecedented high level of uncertainty, IMF emergency support under the Rapid Financing Instrument and the Rapid Credit Facility helps provide a backstop and increase buffers and shore up confidence. It also helps to preserve fiscal space for essential COVID- 19-related health expenditure and catalyze donor support. Banks’ capital and liquidity buffers need to be used to absorb credit losses and the liquidity squeeze. Once these buffers are exhausted, the central bank needs to show flexibility on the timing of bringing capital and liquidity above the minimum required, considering the length of the crisis. Expeditious donor support is needed to close the remaining balance of payments gap and ease the adjustment burden.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; IMF support; balance of payments gap; Executive Board discussion; liquidity squeeze; financing gap; Debt sustainability analysis; External sector statistics; Monetary base; Global; Loans
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The economy is growing steadily, benefiting from a benign regional environment, particularly in Russia, the source of most remittances and non-gold export receipts. Low inflation, lower fiscal deficits, and a stable banking sector point to the success of stabilization policies implemented by the government and National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (NBKR, the central bank) under eight successive Fund-supported programs. However, the economy remains vulnerable to external shocks because of the high level of remittances (29 percent of GDP), the concentration of exports on gold (37 percent of exports of goods), the level and composition of the public debt (56 percent of GDP, 4/5 of which is denominated in foreign currency), and the level of the current account deficit (8.7 percent of GDP). In addition, economic growth has been insufficient to significantly raise living standards and continue to reduce poverty.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; deficit; IMF government Finance Statistics Manual; Kyrgyzstan
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The economy is growing steadily, benefiting from a benign regional environment, particularly in Russia, the source of most remittances and non-gold export receipts. Low inflation, lower fiscal deficits, and a stable banking sector point to the success of stabilization policies implemented by the government and National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (NBKR, the central bank) under eight successive Fund-supported programs. However, the economy remains vulnerable to external shocks because of the high level of remittances (29 percent of GDP), the concentration of exports on gold (37 percent of exports of goods), the level and composition of the public debt (56 percent of GDP, 4/5 of which is denominated in foreign currency), and the level of the current account deficit (8.7 percent of GDP). In addition, economic growth has been insufficient to significantly raise living standards and continue to reduce poverty.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; deficit; IMF government Finance Statistics Manual; Kyrgyzstan; Kyrgyz authorities; headline inflation; GDPand PV; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; Loans; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Debt sustainability analysis; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust-Review of Interest Rate Structure
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
,
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, &amp
, and
Review Department
This paper reviews the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) interest rate structure for the period July 2019–June 2021. Since the interest rate mechanism was first established in 2009, no interest has been charged on PRGT credit. In line with the package of reforms proposed in the parallel Review of LIC Facilities, this paper proposes to align interest rates on the SCF with those on the ECF. Based on the average SDR rate over the most recently observed 12-month period, the proposed revised interest rate mechanism would result in zero interest rates on both ECF and SCF credit for the period July 2019–June 2021.
Keywords:
PP; interest rate; PRGT interest rate mechanism; rate; PRGT interest rates; PRGT; PRGT financing; interest rate mechanism; SCF credit; Credit; Loans; SDR interest rate; Credit ratings; Poverty reduction strategy; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Building Resilient Banking Sectors in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Miss Mercedes Vera Martin
,
Mr. Tarak Jardak
,
Mr. Robert Tchaidze
,
Mr. Juan P Trevino
, and
Mrs. Helen W Wagner
External shocks since 2014—lower oil prices and slower growth in key trading partners—have put financial sectors, mainly banks, in the eight Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) countries under increased stress.  Even before the shocks, CCA banking sectors were not at full strength. Asset quality was generally weak, due in part to shortcomings in regulation, supervision, and governance. The economies were highly dollarized. Business practices were affected by lack of competition and, in most countries, connected lending, which undermined banking sector health. Shortcomings in financial regulation and supervision allowed the unsound banking practices to remain unaddressed. The external shocks exacerbated in these underlying vulnerabilities. Strains in CCA banking sectors intensified as liquidity tightened, asset quality deteriorated, and banks became undercapitalized. These challenges have required public intervention in some cases.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; bank; banking sector; central bank; nonperforming loan; bank management; CCA country; nonviable bank; diversification strategy; bank nationalization; problem bank; public funds; bank corporate governance; Nonperforming loans; Bank resolution framework; Credit; Commercial banks; Loans; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Fourth and Fifth Reviews under the Three-Year Arrangements under the Extended Credit Facility, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
A moderate economic recovery is underway, driven by higher gold production, remittances, and growth in key trading partners. The recent tightening of controls on the border with Kazakhstan will have some limited impact on the economy this year but could weaken trade and growth substantially if it persists. Inflation is normalizing with the rise of food prices. The banking sector is showing signs of recovery but vulnerabilities remain. The October elections slowed reforms and put additional pressure on the budget, although the government has since taken offsetting measures. Public debt remains at moderate risk of distress, helped by som appreciation. The fourth review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement, which was originally scheduled to be completed in June, could not be completed on time. Since then, the authorities have taken corrective measures, which paved the way for moving forward with the combined fourth and fifth reviews.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Kyrgyz authorities; debt; government; deficit