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Middle East and Central Asia > Kyrgyz Republic

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Tax Revenue Downturns: Anatomy and Links to Imports
Kun Li
and
Pablo Lopez Murphy
We study historical tax revenue downturn episodes—where tax revenue-to-GDP ratios decline sharply—and explore the link between tax revenues and imports. We document that downturn episodes of at least 1 percentage point of GDP in one year are common. The tax types that account for these episodes are different in advanced, emerging and developing, and oil producing countries. We find that tax revenue downturns and import contractions have a statistically significant link. Finally, we show that changes in imports are a statistically significant determinant of changes in tax revenues even when controlling for changes in the output gap and in the terms of trade.
Keywords:
WP; tax-revenue-to-GDP ratio; ratio; tax revenue downturn; downturn; revenue-to-GDP
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fiscal Implications of Multilateral Tariff Cuts
Mr. Azim M Sadikov
,
Mr. Hans P Lankes
,
Mr. Dustin Smith
,
Ms. Katrin Elborgh-Woytek
, and
Mr. Jean-Jacques Hallaert
The paper contributes to the discussion about the revenue implications of trade reform by assessing the approximate fiscal revenue impact of different liberalization formulae under consideration in multilateral trade negotiations for a group of low- and middle-income countries. The study applies a linear optimization framework to data for bound tariffs, applied tariffs, and imports at the HS-6 digit level for 58 developing countries, and simulates results for different sets of import demand elasticities and developing country "flexibilities." While only a small number of countries face a significant impact, results point toward the need for complementary fiscal measures in the countries most affected by revenue loss.
Keywords:
WP; tariff; revenue; trade; tariff revenue; revenue loss
Cover IMF Working Papers
Weathering the Storm So Far: The Impact of the 2003–05 Oil Shock on Low-Income Countries
Mr. Helaway Tadesse
,
Mr. Mark W Lewis
,
Jörg Zeuner
,
Mr. James A John
,
Luzmaria Monasi
, and
Mr. Paolo Dudine
This paper examines the impact of the 2003-05 oil price increase on the balance of payments positions and IMF financing needs of low-income country oil importers. It finds that stronger exports reflecting favorable global conditions, a compression of oil import volumes due to the pass-through of world prices to domestic consumers, and a large increase in capital inflows helped low-income countries cope with the oil price shock. Preliminary data suggest that reductions in oil import volumes have not harmed growth. While fiscal balances generally improved, quasi-fiscal liabilities may be building. Lower demand for IMF assistance may reflect broader trends, but further oil price increases could put pressure on additional countries in 2006 and beyond.
Keywords:
WP; GDP; price; balance of payments; current account
Cover IMF Working Papers
Regional Trade Integration and WTO Accession: Which Is the Right Sequencing? An Application to the CIS
Ms. Patrizia Tumbarello
This paper analyzes the appropriate sequencing between accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the implementation of the Eurasian Economic Community (EAEC) customs union and whether the latter facilitates or delays WTO accession for some member countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). If EAEC members pursue a coordinated approach toward WTO accession, this may cause delays that benefit some countries at the expense of others. The paper simulates the welfare effects resulting from the two sequencing alternatives (customs union and WTO or the reverse). The results show that, from a consumer surplus standpoint, it would be preferable to join the WTO ahead of the EAEC customs union. This paper does not attempt to assess the welfare implications of joining the EAEC as a political and economic entity, but only the welfare implications resulting from the implementation of the EAEC customs union.
Keywords:
WP; EAEC member; trade protection
Cover IMF Working Papers
Of Openess and Distance: Trade Developments in the Commonwealth of Independent States, 1993-2002
Ms. Katrin Elborgh-Woytek
This paper analyzes developments in the structure of trade in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) during the transition decade, and finds that it changed less than in other transition economies. Trade openness of the CIS increased between 1993 and 1997, but has fallen to a lower-level plateau since then owing to regional and country-specific factors. These include slower progress in transition, geographic aspects, restrictions on trade, governance and corruption problems, weak infrastructure, lack of regional cooperation, and political conflicts. Regression results show that trade openness of the CIS countries would likely increase substantially if market-oriented reforms were pursued more vigorously.
Keywords:
WP; trade; CIS country; CIS trade; Commonwealth of Independent States; CIS; CIS economy; IMF trade restrictiveness index; CIS share; CIS metal export; Exports; Direction of trade; Imports; Trade balance; Trade policy; Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Recent Economic Developments
International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews economic developments in the Kyrgyz Republic during 1995–97. Significant progress has been achieved in establishing macroeconomic stability since 1994. Inflation has fallen sharply over 1992–97, and projections indicate that the 17 percent targeted for the year will be achieved. After a massive output decline during 1991–95, real GDP started to increase in late 1995 and showed solid growth in 1996 and during the first half of 1997. The budget deficit was halved during 1995–96 and is targeted to decline further in 1997, financed mostly through external assistance.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; exchange rate; U.S. dollar; Kyrgyz authorities; tax code; private sector; vault cash; foreign exchange; privatized enterprise; Treasury bills and bonds; Imports; Privatization; Central Asia; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Recent Economic Developments
International Monetary Fund
This paper describes economic developments in the Kyrgyz Republic during the 1990s. The cash fiscal deficit increased from 7.7 percent of GDP in 1994 to 12.5 percent of GDP in 1995. The authorities encountered difficulties in raising revenues early in the year, but with the implementation of measures to strengthen tax collection, taxes were maintained at about 13.5 percent of GDP for the year as a whole. However, total budget revenues fell from 21 percent of GDP in 1994 to 16 percent of GDP in 1995, reflecting a sharp decline in central bank profit transfers and food grants.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Kyrgyz authorities; CIS country; broad money; first quarter; Kyrgyz authority; tax revenue; state enterprise; commercial bank; Imports; Exports; Agricultural sector; Agricultural commodities
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Tajikistan: Recent Economic Developments
International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews economic developments in the Republic of Tajikistan during 1992–95. Aggregate production, dominated by the cotton and aluminum sectors, continued its decline in 1994, falling by an estimated 21 percent to less than half its 1991 level. GDP declined a further 18 percent in the first quarter of 1995 over the same period a year earlier. With production sharply lower across all sectors of the economy, recorded unemployment reached almost 8 percent of the labor force at end-1994, although less than 2 percent were officially registered as unemployed.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; currency unit; U.S. dollar; debt service; foreign exchange; commercial bank; exchange rate; Currencies; Agricultural commodities; Exports; Imports; Central Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Recent Trade Policies and An Approach to Further Reform in the Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union
Mr. Michael P. Leidy
and
Mr. Ali Ibrahim
This paper reviews the extent to which the Fund’s trade policy advice to the Baltic countries, Russia and other countries of the Former Soviet Union has been implemented. It broadly traces the evolution of trade policies, emphasizing the period from mid-1993 through end-1995, attempting to identify some of the factors affecting uneven progress in trade reform. Based on insights from the public choice literature on endogenous policy theory, the paper makes recommendations for refining Fund advice with a view to facilitating future progress on the trade-policy front.
Keywords:
WP; export tax; factor market; customs union; government import program; trade regime; FSU country; order system; free trade; exchange rate; Tariffs; Exports; Imports; Trade policy; Trade liberalization; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Recent Economic Developments
International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews economic developments in the Kyrgyz Republic during 1990–95. From October 1993 onward, the authorities vigorously pursued restrictive credit policies, which led to monthly inflation rates falling from more than 30 percent in September and October 1993 to low single-digit levels from the spring of 1994 onward. In early 1994, all of the structural measures contemplated under the 1993 program were implemented. In May 1994, the government formulated a comprehensive medium-term economic program (1994–97) to stabilize further the economy and accelerate its structural transformation.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; personal property; Kyrgyz enterprise; capital base; inflation rate; enterprise privatization; financial situation; b. enterprise privatization; enterprise arrears; loss-making enterprise; public sector enterprise; joint stock; enterprises book; trucking enterprise; Credit; Commercial banks; Imports; Currencies; Central Asia