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Middle East and Central Asia > Kyrgyz Republic

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Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 47, No. 2
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper analyzes portfolio diversification, leverage, and financial contagion. It studies the extent to which basic principles of portfolio diversification explain “contagious selling” of financial assets when there are purely local shocks. The paper demonstrates that the elementary portfolio theory offers key insights into “contagion.” Most important, portfolio diversification and leverage are sufficient to explain why an investor will find it optimal to significantly reduce all risky asset positions when an adverse shock impacts just one asset.
Keywords:
SP; price; currency; fiscal policy; monetary policy; CS ratio; commodity price; currency crash; risky assets; price shock; Commodity prices; Currencies; Commodity price shocks; Agricultural commodities; Eastern Europe; Global; Asia and Pacific; Africa; Middle East; Western Hemisphere
Cover IMF Working Papers
Output Decline and Recovery in Uzbekistan: Past Performance and Future Prospects
Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer
and
Mr. Günther Taube
What explains Uzbekistan’s unusually mild “transformational recession” and its moderate recovery during 1996-97? We examine potential biases in output measurement, the role of “special factors”—including initial production structure, natural resources, and public investment policies—and sectoral output developments. The main findings are (i) Uzbekistan’s relatively favorable output record is not an artifact of measurement alone; (ii) public investment has had no significant effects on growth; (iii) the mildness of Uzbekistan’s transitional recession can be accounted for by its favorable initial production structure and its self-sufficiency in energy; (iv) unless reforms are significantly accelerated, medium-term growth prospects are mediocre.
Keywords:
WP; Uzbek experience; output performance; reform policy; private sector; Uzbek growth path; Uzbekistan; Transition; Growth; Output; Sustainability; unmeasured Uzbekistan effect; Uzbek authorities; Uzbek growth experience; consumer goods; Agricultural commodities; Structural reforms; Agricultural sector; Public investment spending; Baltics