Middle East and Central Asia > Kyrgyz Republic

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Padamja Khandelwal
,
Ezequiel Cabezon
,
Mr. Sanan Mirzayev
, and
Rayah Al-Farah
Limited economic diversification has made the economies of the Caucasus and Central Asia particularly vulnerable to external shocks. The economies in the region are heavily reliant on oil and mining exports as well as remittances. In some countries, tourism and capital flows also play a prominent role in aggregate economic activity.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

Countries in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) region and those in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) responded to the COVID-19 pandemic with swift and stringent measures to mitigate its spread and impact but continue to face an uncertain and difficult environment. Oil exporters were particularly hard hit by a “double-whammy” of the economic impact of lockdowns and the resulting sharp decline in oil demand and prices. Containing the health crisis, cushioning income losses, and expanding social spending remain immediate priorities. However, governments must also begin to lay the groundwork for recovery and rebuilding stronger, including by addressing legacies from the crisis and strengthening inclusion.

Miss Mercedes Vera Martin
,
Mr. Tarak Jardak
,
Mr. Robert Tchaidze
,
Mr. Juan P Trevino
, and
Mrs. Helen W Wagner
External shocks since 2014—lower oil prices and slower growth in key trading partners—have put financial sectors, mainly banks, in the eight Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) countries under increased stress.  Even before the shocks, CCA banking sectors were not at full strength. Asset quality was generally weak, due in part to shortcomings in regulation, supervision, and governance. The economies were highly dollarized. Business practices were affected by lack of competition and, in most countries, connected lending, which undermined banking sector health. Shortcomings in financial regulation and supervision allowed the unsound banking practices to remain unaddressed. The external shocks exacerbated in these underlying vulnerabilities. Strains in CCA banking sectors intensified as liquidity tightened, asset quality deteriorated, and banks became undercapitalized. These challenges have required public intervention in some cases.
Mr. Mats A Josefsson
and
Mr. Michael Andrews
Closures have been used to resolve problem banks in many countries in a wide range of economic circumstances, yet banking supervisors frequently defer intervention and closure. Avoiding the costs of disruption is the principal argument in favor of extraordinary measures, such as the use of public funds for recapitalization or forbearance, as alternatives to closing insolvent banks. Well-planned and implemented closure options can preserve essential functions performed by failing banks, mitigating disruption. Extraordinary measures to avoid closure should generally be avoided, but may be used in a systemic crisis to preserve some portion of a widely insolvent banking sector.
Ms. Edda Zoli
The paper analyses the cost and effectiveness of bank restructuring policies in 11 transition countries during 1991-98. It argues that country-specific banking sector features, the size of bad loans inherited from the centrally planned system, and weaknesses in the restructuring policies implemented were the main factors affecting the overall fiscal costs, with the latter two being more significant. The paper finds no significant relationship between the size of restructuring costs and overall improvement in banking sector performance for the sample countries as a whole.
Mr. Dong He
This paper discusses operational aspects of official emergency liquidity support to individual institutions under stress. It argues that properly designed lending procedures, clearly laid-out authority and accountability, as well as disclosures rules, will promote financial stability, reduce moral hazard, and protect the lender of last resort from undue political pressure. Although there may well be good reasons to maintain ambiguity over the conditions for assistance, there are important advantages for developing, and for transition economies to follow a rule-based approach by setting out ex ante the necessary conditions for support, while maintaining that meeting such conditions is not sufficient for receiving support.