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Middle East and Central Asia > Kyrgyz Republic

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper undertakes a detailed analysis of the inflation dynamics and its determinants in the Kyrgyz Republic to shed light on the unprecedented inflationary surge since 2021. It employs two complementary methodologies to model a complex interplay between domestic and global factors, and policy variables. The paper constructs a new comprehensive measure of inflation expectations, encompassing both adaptive and forward-looking components, and as an additional novelty introduces external variables to the Phillips curve framework. The empirical analysis suggests that in addition to global food prices, which have historically driven inflation in the country, the role of domestic factors have become more prominent. On the other hand, the paper finds a much stronger contribution of liquidity conditions to inflation. This suggests a disconnect between policy interest rates and market liquidity, which needs to be addressed for better functioning of monetary policy transmission. The main policy implication is that to strengthen the effectiveness of monetary policy and support National Bank of Kyrgyz Republic’s intended transition to an inflation-targeting framework, excess liquidity needs to be drained and brought in conformity with the policy rate. This will require discontinuation of central bank’s participation in the domestic gold market, which is the main source of liquidity injections.
Keywords:
frontier analysis; dynamics in the Kyrgyz Republic; trade fragmentation; inflation expectation; Kyrgyz export; Inflation; Value-added tax; Income and capital gains taxes; Personal income tax; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Kyrgyzstan; Kyrgyz government; SDB law; business environment; rate
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The government of the Kyrgyz Republic is determined to consolidate its finances over the coming years. This note describes the main elements of the tax regime in the Kyrgyz Republic, looks into tax incentives, and provides some reform options to raise revenues. The second note is on monetary policy in the Kyrgyz Republic, which faces challenges with respect to formulation and efficacy given the low monetization, the shallow financial system, high dollarization, and a predominantly cash-based economy.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Kyrgyzstan; Kyrgyz government; SDB law; business environment; rate; governance indicators in the Kyrgyz Republic; funding mechanism; Tax incentives; Exchange rate flexibility; Value-added tax; Corporate income tax; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Tajikistan: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the sources of recent growth in Tajikistan. It concludes that economic growth has been mainly driven by the services sector and a surge in remittances that have been mainly used for private consumption and small-scale private investment. The paper summarizes the recently introduced revisions to the Tax Code, which are an evolutionary step in simplifying the tax system and setting the base for better revenue administration. It also examines the likely impact on households of increasing electricity prices to cost-recovery levels.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Tajikistan; wage; debt; remittance; Tajik economy; labor migration; wage bill; growth prospect; recovery level; Corporate income tax; Tariffs; Commercial banks; Central Asia; Global; Central and Eastern Europe