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Middle East and Central Asia > Kyrgyz Republic

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Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
Understanding Artificial Intelligence in Tax and Customs Administration
Joshua Aslett
,
Stuart Hamilton
,
Ignacio Gonzalez
,
David Hadwick
, and
Michael A Hardy
This technical note provides an overview of current thinking on artificial intelligence (AI) in tax and customs administration. Written primarily for senior officials, the intent of the note is to provide an awareness of AI that can help inform decision making and planning. The note opens with an exploration of historic and ongoing AI developments. It then provides an overview of legal and ethical concerns, AI use cases, guidance on how to promote AI's responsible use, and logic for introducing AI use cases into an operational setting. The note closes by presenting a selection of questions being debated by experts. In its annexes, the note includes (1) an example of an AI policy; (2) references to help develop AI strategy; and (3) methodology to risk assess AI use cases.
Keywords:
tax administration; customs administration; artificial intelligence; generative artificial intelligence; AI regulation; strategy and planning; use case; AI strategy; understanding AI; AI Policy; risk assessment; Tax administration core functions; Customs administration core functions; Training and development in revenue administration; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper undertakes a detailed analysis of the inflation dynamics and its determinants in the Kyrgyz Republic to shed light on the unprecedented inflationary surge since 2021. It employs two complementary methodologies to model a complex interplay between domestic and global factors, and policy variables. The paper constructs a new comprehensive measure of inflation expectations, encompassing both adaptive and forward-looking components, and as an additional novelty introduces external variables to the Phillips curve framework. The empirical analysis suggests that in addition to global food prices, which have historically driven inflation in the country, the role of domestic factors have become more prominent. On the other hand, the paper finds a much stronger contribution of liquidity conditions to inflation. This suggests a disconnect between policy interest rates and market liquidity, which needs to be addressed for better functioning of monetary policy transmission. The main policy implication is that to strengthen the effectiveness of monetary policy and support National Bank of Kyrgyz Republic’s intended transition to an inflation-targeting framework, excess liquidity needs to be drained and brought in conformity with the policy rate. This will require discontinuation of central bank’s participation in the domestic gold market, which is the main source of liquidity injections.
Keywords:
frontier analysis; dynamics in the Kyrgyz Republic; trade fragmentation; inflation expectation; Kyrgyz export; Inflation; Value-added tax; Income and capital gains taxes; Personal income tax; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kyrgyz Republic
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Kyrgyz economy grew strongly in 2023, led by construction and trade, despite the challenging regional environment. Tax revenue mobilization improved, and public debt declined. Headline inflation fell from 14.7 percent in December 2022 to 7.3 percent in December 2023, supported by a marked reduction in food and fuel inflation, but demand pressures have kept core inflation elevated. The official current account deficit has remained significant due to the decline in net remittance inflows, lower gold exports, and unrecorded re-exports. Output is expected to grow at its potential rate of 4 percent in the medium term, inflation decline to mid-single digits, and public debt remain contained. Current favorable macroeconomic conditions present a window of opportunity to strengthen the policy framework and raise growth prospects through structural reforms. The priorities are strengthening governance, including management and privatization of state-owned enterprises, enhancing competition, reforming the electricity sector, and strengthening social safety nets.
Keywords:
staff appraisal; Kyrgyz authorities; policy recommendation; January monetary policy meeting; headline inflation; Debt sustainability analysis; Government finance statistics; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Tajikistan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
Tajik banking sector; sample estimation; Tajik rail road; SOE Sector; B. tax revenue performance; Tajik cement; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; Tajik telecom; Fiscal risks; Commercial banks; Contingent liabilities; Nonperforming loans; Central Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
What Drives Bank Lending Spreads and Collateral Requirements in the Kyrgyz Republic
Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru
Limited access to finance and its high cost have contributed to relatively low levels of private investment and subpar growth in the Kyrgyz Republic. Interest rate spreads have moderated in recent years, but remain high from both a regional and global perspective. At the same time, collateral requirements applied by banks are onerous and also constrain the quantity of credit supplied. This paper identifies a range of factors that could lower spreads in the Kyrgyz Republic: more competition, higher capital, lower credit risk, larger loan size, lower deposit rates and external funding costs, as well as a stronger legal framework. Lower operating costs appear critical to reduce relatively higher spreads for small and medium-sized banks. At the same time, a stronger legal framework and greater transparency on borrowers’ creditworthiness would help reduce the high collateral requirements. Reforms in all these areas would support greater financial inclusion in the aftermath of the pandemic, and could thus be a key source of sustainable and inclusive growth in the Kyrgyz Republic.
Keywords:
WP; financial leverage; return on assets; market power; loan s; pressure bank; concentration index; bank loan; bank-financed investment; bank size; group loan; interest rate spread; intermediation cost; average cost; Loans; Collateral; Credit; Bank credit; Legal support in revenue administration; Central Asia; Bank lending spreads; financial intermediation; bank competition; uncollateralized loan; investment activity
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, November 2018, Middle East and Central Asia
Regional Economic Outlook, November 2018, Middle East and Central Asia
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

As in other regions in the world, countries in MENAP and CCA regions are exposed to tightening in global financing conditions and ongoing global trade tensions. The former has already begun to impact several emerging market economies in MENAP and could have more severe implications should financial market sentiment suddenly deteriorate. Escalating global trade tensions will have a limited direct and immediate impact on these regions but could impart significant strains over time through negative effects on trading partners and through market confidence effects.

Keywords:
REO; oil exporter; country; country abbreviation; exporter; oil importer; private investment; CCA region; CCA country; investment ratio; investment opportunity; Oil prices; Private investment; Oil; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Middle East and Central Asia; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Middle East; North Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; MENAP oil-importing country; Fiscal consolidation
Cover Departmental Papers
A Growth-Friendly Path for Building Fiscal Buffers in the Caucuses and Central Asia
Mr. Edward R Gemayel
,
Ms. Lorraine Ocampos
,
Matteo Ghilardi
, and
Mr. James Aylward
Since 2014, large and persistent external shocks have hit the CCA region, particularly a slump in global commodity prices and slower growth in its key economic partners. Fiscal accommodation, along with currency adjustment, has helped the CCA mitigate the impact of the external shocks. However, amid weakening revenues, increased public spending has widened budget deficits, weakened external balances, and increased public debts. Fiscal policy and strengthening fiscal frameworks must play a central role in helping build buffers and ensuring debt sustainability while supporting growth. This requires (1) tightening fiscal policies to reduce deficits to help restore external balance and fiscal sustainability, (2) strengthening tax systems and tax collection and tilting expenditure toward a more productive and growth-enhancing composition, and (3) implementing public financial management reforms and strengthening fiscal institutions, including through fiscal rules.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; CCA country; country; tax revenue; oil exporter; oil importer; Tajikistan share; Tajikistan's measure; increase revenue productivity; GDP ratio; commodity exporter; gross investment; Turkmenistan share; review taxation; Oil; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover IMF Working Papers
Tax Administration and Firm Performance: New Data and Evidence for Emerging Market and Developing Economies
Ms. Era Dabla-Norris
,
Florian Misch
,
Mr. Duncan Cleary
, and
Munawer Khwaja
Tax compliance costs tend to be disproportionately higher for small and young businesses. This paper examines how the quality of tax administration affects firm performance for a large sample of firms in emerging market and developing economies. We construct a novel, internationally comparable, and multidimensional index of tax administration quality (the TAQI) using information from the Tax Administration Diagnostic Assessment Tool. We show that better tax administration attenuates the productivity gap of small and young firms relative to larger and older firms, a result that is robust to controlling for other aspects of tax policy and of economic governance, alternative definitions of small and young firms, and measures of the quality of tax administration. From a policy perspective, we provide evidence that countries can reap growth and productivity dividends from improvements in tax administration that lower compliance costs faced by firms.
Keywords:
WP; tax administration; compliance cost; firm performance; total factor productivity; omitted firm category; small business; firm productivity; cash flow; enterprise manager; micro enterprise; compliance burden; Tax administration core functions; Compliance costs; Tax return filing compliance; Labor productivity; Tax Administration Diagnostic and Assessment Tool (TADAT); Central and Eastern Europe; Central Asia; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Exchange Rate Developments and Policies in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Mr. Mark A Horton
,
Hossein Samiei
,
Mr. Natan P. Epstein
, and
Mr. Kevin Ross
Since late 2014, exchange rates (ERs) and ER regimes of the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) countries have come under strong pressure. This reflects the decline of oil and other commodity prices, weaker growth in Russia and China, depreciation of the Russian ruble, and appreciation of the U.S. dollar, to which CCA currencies have historically been linked. Weaker fiscal and current account balances and increased dollarization have complicated the picture. CCA countries entered this period with closely managed ER regimes and, in many cases, currencies assessed by IMF staff to be overvalued. CCA central banks have price stability as their main policy objective, and most have relied on ER stability to achieve this objective. Thus, the first policy response involved intervention in local foreign exchange (FX) markets, often with limited communication. In this context, the IMF staff has reviewed ER policy advice and implementation strategies for CCA countries.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; government; country; central bank; High ER; CCA country; ER flexibility; ER Policy framework; ER regime; ER policy; CCA central banks; central bank communications; Communications in revenue administration; Currencies; Dollarization; Monetary policy frameworks; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Sixth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility; Staff Report; and Press Release
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Political context. On April 3, 2014, parliament approved a new government, led by Mr. Otorbaev, the new Prime Minister. The ministers of economy and finances kept their positions. Moreover, on May 7, 2014, a new chairperson was appointed for the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (NBKR). No major changes in economic policies are expected. In February 2014, parliament approved a new deal with Centerra, ending a two-year dispute over the Kumtor gold mine. Background. In the first quarter, growth moderated to 5.6 percent (year-on-year) after the 2013 growth spike at 10.5 percent related to an unexpectedly high level of gold production. In the same period, inflation picked up slightly, owing to depreciation of the som in response to pressures from the depreciation of the Russian ruble and the devaluation of the Kazakh tenge. The NBKR intervened heavily to mitigate these pressures, but has recently rebuilt reserves to ensure a more comfortable level of over three months of imports. The current account is expected to deteriorate this year because of higher imports related to large public investments and FDI-financed infrastructure projects. Fiscal performance in 2013 was better than expected, with a deficit of 4 percent of GDP, but revenue headwinds call for a cautious budget in 2014. The medium-term outlook remains broadly favorable, provided prudent macroeconomic policies continue and are supported with structural reforms, including tax policy and administration reforms, public financial management (PFM) reforms, and implementation of FSAP recommendations, in particular the Banking Code. Program. The program is broadly on track, with all end-December 2013 quantitative performance criteria and all but one indicative targets (IT) met for end-December 2013. Although three March 2014 ITs were missed, since then there has been progress in rebuilding reserves and enhancing tax collections. The two structural benchmarks (SBs) for end-December were met, and the SB on signing the contract with one of the big four audit companies to audit the Debt Resolution Agency (DEBRA) is expected to be completed with delay. The remaining SB on introducing the Treasury Single Account (TSA) on a pilot basis was missed. Overall, the Kyrgyz authorities are completing a broadly successful three-year ECF arrangement, although further reforms will be needed to preserve and deepen the accomplishments. Despite occasional domestic political turmoil, the authorities have regained and maintained macroeconomic stability, consolidated the fiscal position, implemented a new monetary framework, and embarked on a comprehensive banking sector reform. The authorities have not yet expressed their intentions regarding a successor program.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; ECF arrangement; Kyrgyz authorities; SDR