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Middle East and Central Asia > Kyrgyz Republic

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Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Republic of Tajikistan: Technical Assistance Report-Public Investment Management Assessment with the Climate Module
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This report summarizes findings from a Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) and the Climate Module (C-PIMA) conducted for Tajikistan. The assessment evaluated the country's public investment management practices, including their climate sensitivity. Tajikistan performs well in certain areas but faces significant gaps in others. Parallel external and internally financed processes present recurring challenges across Tajikistan’s public investment management framework, limiting consistency and strategic alignment. Implementing a comprehensive framework for overseeing all projects, regardless of funding source, would significantly improve efficiency and climate responsiveness.
Keywords:
Republic of Tajikistan; Public investment management; PIMA; C-PIMA; climate change; Green PFM; climate-sensitive infrastructure.; D. Investment allocation; authorities of the Republic of Tajikistan; investment project; Republic of Tajikistan analysis; Investment planning; priorities in Tajikistan; management institution; Public investment spending; Budget planning and preparation; Infrastructure; Central Asia; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2024
Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2024
Navigating the Evolving Geoeconomic Landscape
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa and Caucasus and Central Asia regions is projected to strengthen in the near term, but only to the extent that current challenges abate. Ongoing conflicts and oil production cuts are dampening economic performance, and medium-term growth prospects have weakened over the past two decades. Moreover, high uncertainty looms, with key risks including escalating conflicts, increased geoeconomic fragmentation, and commodity price volatility. To boost growth and create jobs—especially for women and youth—reform priorities include strengthening governance, encouraging private sector investment, and advancing financial development.

Keywords:
Middle East; North Africa; Caucasus; Central Asia; Gaza; Sudan; Lebanon; trade patterns; economic growth; reforms; growth prospects; shocks; conflicts; uncertainty; economic performance; growth prospects; risks; oil production cuts; OPEC+; investment; geoeconomic fragmentation; IMF; governance; medium-term; capital deepening; women; youth; employment; commodity price volatility; private sector; financial development; CCA region; CCA economy; CCA country; IMF staff calculation; oil exporter; Total factor productivity; Financial sector development; Oil exports; Inflation; Labor force participation; East Africa; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Monetary Policy Frameworks and Communication in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Omer Faruk Akbal
,
Klakow Akepanidtaworn
,
Ezequiel Cabezon
,
Mariarosaria Comunale
,
Mrs. Marina Conesa Martinez
, and
Ms. Filiz D Unsal
Central banks in Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) have been enhancing their monetary policy frameworks in the last decade, and are at different stages of the transition to a type of inflation targeting regimes. This paper documents their progress and the current state of their monetary policy framework, utilizing the IAPOC index developed by Unsal and others (2022) covering Independence and Accountability, Policy and Operational Strategy, and Communications, as well as drawing from central banks’ laws and websites. Additionally, an analysis of press releases from CCA central banks is conducted to evaluate their features, content, and tones. The findings highlight the need for further improvements in the areas of Independence and Accountability, as well as Communications, despite some recent advancements in the latter.
Keywords:
Caucasus and Central Asia; Monetary Policy Frameworks; Communication.; CCA inflation; central banks in Caucasus and Central Asia; IMF working paper No. 2023/251; IAPOC Index; CCA country; Monetary policy communication; Inflation targeting; Inflation; Market interest rates; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover Departmental Papers
Strengthening Monetary Policy Frameworks in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Mr. Tigran Poghosyan
,
Klakow Akepanidtaworn
,
Maria Atamanchuk
,
Ezequiel Cabezon
,
Mr. Selim Cakir
,
Mr. Vahid Khatami
,
Ms. Filiz D Unsal
,
Mariarosaria Comunale
,
Mrs. Marina Conesa Martinez
, and
Omer Faruk Akbal
Amidst a global backdrop of persistent post-COVID inflation and spillovers from Russia’s war in Ukraine, the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region have faced strong price pressures in recent years. Inflation is estimated to have peaked in early 2023, but still exceeds central bank targets. In particular, core inflation remains stubbornly high reflecting a combination of second-round effects, surges in global energy and food prices, and domestic demand pressures. More broadly, uncertainty and downside risks also weigh on the economic outlook, including due to regional tensions, financial turmoil related to international monetary policy normalization, and a growth slowdown in key trading partners. In this context, CCA countries’ ability to contain inflationary pressures and anchor inflation expectations hinges on the credibility and effectiveness of their monetary policy frameworks. Since gaining independence in the 1990s, countries in the CCA region have made considerable progress in modernizing their monetary policy frameworks. CCA central banks have strengthened their legal frameworks and established broad de-jure independence. Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan are transitioning to inflation targeting regimes, while the central banks of Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan rely on the exchange rate as an operational target. However, the post-COVID surge in inflation has highlighted the limitations of current frameworks and triggered a fresh policy debate on the need to strengthen monetary policy effectiveness in the CCA. This paper reviews the CCA region’s monetary policy landscape, highlights challenges in monetary policy design and implementation, and identifies areas that warrant strengthening. It draws on original surveys of country authorities, IMF country teams, and the work by Unsal and others (2022). It uses novel empirical work to analyze monetary policy transmission, the link between foreign exchange interventions and exchange rate dynamics, the drivers of financial de-dollarization, and the effects of central bank communication in the CCA.
Keywords:
Caucasus and Central Asia; Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism; Exchange Rate Management; Dollarization; Central Bank Communication and Transparency; Central Bank Credibility; CCA country; CCA central banks; monetary policy transmission; CCA economy; CCA region's monetary policy landscape; monetary policy effectiveness; Exchange rates; Monetary policy frameworks; Inflation; Inflation targeting; Exchange rate arrangements; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Remittances and Social Safety Nets During COVID-19: Evidence From Georgia and the Kyrgyz Republic
Nordine Abidi
,
Mehdi Akhbari
,
Bashar Hlayhel
, and
Sahra Sakha
Remittance flows in emerging market and developing economies were surprisingly resilient during the COVID-19 crisis, providing much-needed income support for remittance-receiving households. However, households were impacted differently across income distributions. Using novel high-frequency household panel data for Georgia and the Kyrgyz Republic and a difference-in-differences approach, we find that as household income fell during the pandemic, remittance-receiving households were more affected than non-remittance-receiving households. Importantly, we find that the incomes of poor, remittance-receiving households in the Kyrgyz Republic were more adversely affected than their non-remittance-receiving counterparts. In contrast, in Georgia, affluent remittance-receiving households experienced more significant income declines than poor remittance-receiving households. This heterogeneous impact can largely be explained by variations in the effectiveness of social safety nets in the two countries. Our results have important policy implications. Although remittances remained resilient during the pandemic, they affected households differently. As such, policymakers should prioritize addressing gaps in social safety nets to support the most vulnerable.
Keywords:
COVID-19; Remittances; Central Asia; remittance-receiving household; household income; remittance flow; households in Georgia; remittance-sending country; remittance receiver; Income; Social assistance spending; Income distribution; North America; Middle East and Central Asia; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses governance challenges in the Kyrgyz Republic. This paper aims to assess various aspects of governance in the Kyrgyz Republic and identify some of the key challenges in this area. Governance reforms in the Kyrgyz Republic can leverage linkages to the global economy and structural transformation to deliver higher and more inclusive growth. Combating corruption and strengthening governance, including of state-owned enterprises and public finances, and improving the regulatory environment and the anti-corruption; and Anti-money Laundering and Combating Financial Terrorism (AML/CFT) framework, are critical steps to improve the business climate and promote private sector-led growth. Reforms in these areas have a significant potential to increase efficiency of allocation of public resources and the delivery of public services. The IMF’s analytical work has shown that governance reforms could raise the country’s growth rates by about 1.2 percentage points per year. Strengthening control of corruption and regulatory quality, reforming state-owned enterprises, and enhancing transparency and accountability of the public sector are important priorities to pursue.
Keywords:
climate change prospects in the Kyrgyz Republic; poverty in the Kyrgyz republic; developments in poverty; inclusion indicator; climate change policy; SSNS poverty mitigation effect; poverty rates in the Kyrgyz Republic; Climate change; Social assistance spending; Greenhouse gas emissions; Climate policy; Global; Central Asia; Middle East and Central Asia; Central and Eastern Europe; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Reducing Dollarization in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Mr. Selim Cakir
,
Maria Atamanchuk
,
Mazin Al Riyami
,
Nia Sharashidze
, and
Nathalie Reyes
Declining but still high dollarization rates in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region affect macroeconomic stability, monetary policy transmission, and financial sector development. Although several studies have investigated the dynamics of dollarization in the CCA, the relative roles of macrofinancial policies and financial market development in the de-dollarization process have not yet been assessed empirically. This paper takes stock of de-dollarization efforts and explores the short-term drivers of financial de‐dollarization in the CCA region. It highlights that there remains significant scope to further reduce dollarization through continued progress in strengthening macroeconomic policy frameworks and in developing markets and institutions.
Keywords:
Dollarization; Foreign Currency; Foreign Exchange; FX; Monetary Policy; Central Asia; Caucasus; CCA.; deposit dollarization; De-dollarization policy; credit dollarization; dollarization to a shock; dollarization in the CCA region; Currencies; Credit; De-dollarization; Central Asia and the Caucasus; rates in the Caucasus and Central Asia; dollarization to issuance; Reserve requirements
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financial Development and Growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Mr. Tigran Poghosyan
This paper presents stylized facts on financial development in the CCA countries relative to their EM and LIC peers and assesses how financial development can boost growth in the CCA. Drawing on IMF’s multidimensional index of financial development, we find that CCA countries have made progress following the independence in early 1990s. However, the progress was uneven across the CCA, resulting in a divergence of financial development over time and mixed performance relative to EM and LIC peers. Financial institutions have progressed the most, while financial markets remain underdevelped in most CCA countries except Kazakhstan. In terms of sub-indicators of financial development, financial access has expanded markedly, while the depth of financial intermediation has remained largely shallow and efficiency of financial intermediation has fluctuated over time. Standard growth regressions suggest that CCA countries with relatively lower level of financial development have scope to boost annual growth rates between 0.5-2.5 percent by reaching the level of financial development of frontier CCA countries.
Keywords:
Caucasus and Central Asia; financial development; output growth; CCA country; financial markets market index; growth regression; LIC peer; growth in the Caucasus; Financial sector development; Stock markets; Financial statistics; Central Asia and the Caucasus; CCA economy; CCA LIC; CCA EM; financial institution index
Cover Departmental Papers
Macroprudential Policies to Enhance Financial Stability in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Padamja Khandelwal
,
Ezequiel Cabezon
,
Mr. Sanan Mirzayev
, and
Rayah Al-Farah
Limited economic diversification has made the economies of the Caucasus and Central Asia particularly vulnerable to external shocks. The economies in the region are heavily reliant on oil and mining exports as well as remittances. In some countries, tourism and capital flows also play a prominent role in aggregate economic activity.
Keywords:
Financial risks; financial supervision and regulation; macroprudential policy; credit cycles; CCA country; CCA economy; CCA contribution; economies of the Caucasus and Central Asia; credit downturn; banking sector crisis; credit cycle analysis methodology; Macroprudential policy; Credit; Credit gaps; Countercyclical capital buffers; Macroprudential policy instruments; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover Departmental Papers
Managing Financial Sector Risks from the COVID-19 Crisis in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru
and
Klakow Akepanidtaworn
The COVID-19 crisis raises the risk of renewed financial sector pressures in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region in the period ahead. Bank distress and its economic and fiscal fallout have been recurring features of many CCA countries, as seen after the global financial crisis and the 2014–15 oil price shock. Strong policy responses have delayed the full impact of the COVID crisis so far, but financial sector risks will increase once public support is phased out. If these risks are not preemptively addressed, banks’ ability to lend during the recovery phase could be impaired and there may be a need for costly public interventions, as in the past.
Keywords:
Financial risks; stress tests; financial supervision and regulation; CCA country; CCA banking systems; FX risk; CCA bank's capital adequacy ratios; FX-induced credit risk; Financial sector risk; Commercial banks; Credit risk; Nonperforming loans; Central Asia and the Caucasus