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Middle East and Central Asia > Kyrgyz Republic

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Managing Foreign Exchange Rate Risk: Capacity Development for Public Debt Managers in Emerging Market and Low-Income Countries
Thordur Jonasson
,
Sheheryar Malik
,
Kay Chung
, and
Michael G. Papaioannou
This paper presents some sound practices for foreign-currency risk management in developing countries and outlines instruments for managing sovereign debt portfolio currency exposures. Adoption of a debt management strategy with well-defined targets for foreign exchange risk is a critical element of public debt risk management. To this end, public debt managers often need to face with complex strategic and operational matters related to public debt hedging practices, including the use of derivatives. In this context, we highlight the main institutional challenges in the management of foreign exchange risk in sovereign debt portfolios and discuss the overall implementation of a foreign exchange risk-management strategy.
Keywords:
exchange rate risk risk management; debt portfolio; public debt manager; currency exposure; risk-management strategy; Government debt management; Debt management; Currencies; Exchange rate risk; Foreign currency debt; Asia and Pacific; Sub-Saharan Africa; Middle East; North Africa; Central Asia; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Digital Money and Central Bank Operations
Mr. Charles M. Kahn
,
Mr. Manmohan Singh
, and
Jihad Alwazir
The rise of new and proposed monetary vehicles, including CBDC, stablecoins, payment service providers etc., are unprecedented. An important question for central banks is the extent to which these innovations upend the role of and implementation of monetary policy. The paper focuses on the interest rate channel and if digital money (especially CBDC) will change monetary policy and central bank operations. We argue that new policy instruments make sense only to the extent that there is limited substitutability between the various payment sectors. We analyze trends in currency-in-circulation, and how it may impact central bank’s seigniorage, monetary base, and transactional velocity of digital money if money demand declines. Liquidity outside the monetary base will also be important to understand.
Keywords:
Base money; CBDC; central banking operations; currency in circulation; digital money; mobile phone operators; seigniorage; central bank operations Charles Kahn; jihad Alwazir; lender-of-last-resort facilities; payments assets; phone company payments account; central bank profits; central bank regulation; Monetary base; Digital currencies; Central Bank digital currencies; Currencies; Commercial banks
Cover IMF Working Papers
Unveiling the Effects of Foreign Exchange Interventions: Evidence from the Kyrgyz Republic
Mr. Tigran Poghosyan
This paper analyzes determinants and consequences of FX interventions in the Kyrgyz Republic. Most of the literature on the topic focuses on advanced and emerging economies and this paper provides new evidence from a low-income country. We find that FX interventions take place in response to movements in the exchange rate and its volatility. There is also evidence of “leaning against the wind”, which is more pronounced for relatively larger FX sales and purchases. The “leaning against the wind” is asymmetric toward FX sales and largely reflects leaning against depreciation of domestic currency. We document a varying degree of de-facto exchange rate stability despite the de-jure floating exchange rate regime. During most of the sample, the exchange rate management index was relatively low in line with the floating exchange rate regime, with the exception of the period from 2018 Q4 until the COVID-19 shock, during which the exchange rate management index was relatively high.
Keywords:
foreign exchange interventions; Kyrgyz Republic; WP; FX intervention; FX sale; management index; FX purchase; exchange rate change; exchange rates; Exchange rate adjustments; Currency markets; Exchange rate indexes; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Markov-Switching Approach to Measuring Exchange Market Pressure
Mr. Francis Y Kumah
This paper characterizes exchange market pressure as a nonlinear Markov-switching phenomenon, and examines its dynamics in response to money growth and inflation over three regimes. The empirical results identify episodes of exchange market pressure in the Kyrgyz Republic and confirm the statistical superiority of the nonlinear regime-switching model over a linear VAR version in understanding exchange market pressure. The nonlinear empirical approach adequately characterizes the data generation process and yields results that are consistent with theoretical predictions, particularly the dampening effect of monetary contraction on depreciation pressure. During periods of appreciation pressure, however, the reverse policy option-monetary expansion-may not be efficient, particularly where PPP rather than UIP drives exchange rates. In addition, monetary expansion in such cases defeats the primary objective of monetary policy-price stability-and may exacerbate the instability.
Keywords:
WP; financial crisis; foreign exchange market; interest rate
Cover Macroeconomic Developments in the Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union, 1992-97
Macroeconomic Developments in the Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union, 1992-97
Mr. Luis Valdivieso

Abstract

This paper discusses the significant overall progress with macro stabilization of these transition countries during 1992-1997. While average inflation declined steadily since 1992, output fell significantly for many of these countries during this period, and it was not unti 1996-97 that as a group they experienced positive growth, financial policies, the current account, competitiveness, debt-and non-debt-creating capital flows, and the initial impact of the Asian crisis.

Keywords:
OP; reformer; deficit; SBA III; exchange market pressure; intermediate reformer; IMF staff estimate; IMF support; adjustment program; treasury bill market; Real exchange rates; Currency markets; Debt burden; International capital markets; Baltics
Cover Central Bank Reforms in the Baltics, Russia, and the Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union
Central Bank Reforms in the Baltics, Russia, and the Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union
Mr. Malcolm D. Knight

Abstract

Since 1991, the 15 countries under review - have to varying degrees, been pursuing reforms whose broad objectives have been to achieve market-based determination of interest rates and exchange rates, manage banking system liquidity through market operations with indirect instruments, and provide the institutional underpinnings for the design and implementation of macroeconomic stabilization and structural reform programs supported by the IMF. This study reviews the experience under these programs and the economic developments in the countries that undertook them.

Keywords:
OP; central bank; country; accounting reform; bank; internal audit reform issue; reform issue; country ranking; bank governance; restructuring policy; Commercial banks; Treasury bills and bonds; Credit; Currencies; Baltics; Payment systems; Currency markets; Bank supervision; Bank resolution