Middle East and Central Asia > Kyrgyz Republic

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  • Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General x
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Mr. Selim Cakir
,
Maria Atamanchuk
,
Mazin Al Riyami
,
Nia Sharashidze
, and
Nathalie Reyes
Declining but still high dollarization rates in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region affect macroeconomic stability, monetary policy transmission, and financial sector development. Although several studies have investigated the dynamics of dollarization in the CCA, the relative roles of macrofinancial policies and financial market development in the de-dollarization process have not yet been assessed empirically. This paper takes stock of de-dollarization efforts and explores the short-term drivers of financial de‐dollarization in the CCA region. It highlights that there remains significant scope to further reduce dollarization through continued progress in strengthening macroeconomic policy frameworks and in developing markets and institutions.
Mr. Charles M. Kahn
,
Mr. Manmohan Singh
, and
Jihad Alwazir
The rise of new and proposed monetary vehicles, including CBDC, stablecoins, payment service providers etc., are unprecedented. An important question for central banks is the extent to which these innovations upend the role of and implementation of monetary policy. The paper focuses on the interest rate channel and if digital money (especially CBDC) will change monetary policy and central bank operations. We argue that new policy instruments make sense only to the extent that there is limited substitutability between the various payment sectors. We analyze trends in currency-in-circulation, and how it may impact central bank’s seigniorage, monetary base, and transactional velocity of digital money if money demand declines. Liquidity outside the monetary base will also be important to understand.
Padamja Khandelwal
,
Ezequiel Cabezon
,
Mr. Sanan Mirzayev
, and
Rayah Al-Farah
Limited economic diversification has made the economies of the Caucasus and Central Asia particularly vulnerable to external shocks. The economies in the region are heavily reliant on oil and mining exports as well as remittances. In some countries, tourism and capital flows also play a prominent role in aggregate economic activity.
Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru
Limited access to finance and its high cost have contributed to relatively low levels of private investment and subpar growth in the Kyrgyz Republic. Interest rate spreads have moderated in recent years, but remain high from both a regional and global perspective. At the same time, collateral requirements applied by banks are onerous and also constrain the quantity of credit supplied. This paper identifies a range of factors that could lower spreads in the Kyrgyz Republic: more competition, higher capital, lower credit risk, larger loan size, lower deposit rates and external funding costs, as well as a stronger legal framework. Lower operating costs appear critical to reduce relatively higher spreads for small and medium-sized banks. At the same time, a stronger legal framework and greater transparency on borrowers’ creditworthiness would help reduce the high collateral requirements. Reforms in all these areas would support greater financial inclusion in the aftermath of the pandemic, and could thus be a key source of sustainable and inclusive growth in the Kyrgyz Republic.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has weakened the macroeconomic outlook. The authorities have launched a health care contingency plan and an initial package of economic measures, together totaling $31 million (0.4 percent of GDP), and are preparing a second, larger package of economic measures of about $400 million (5.2 percent of GDP). To help address an urgent balance of payments need arising from the pandemic, estimated at about $500 million, the authorities request an additional purchase under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) of 33.3 percent of quota (SDR 59.2 million) and a disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) of 16.7 percent of quota (SDR 29.6 million) under the “exogenous shock” window of the RCF. This follows Board approval on March 26, 2020 of the authorities’ earlier request for the same amounts, before the doubling of the annual access on emergency financing under the “exogenous shock” window of the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) to 100 percent of quota was approved on April 6, 2020. This additional request will bring the total purchases under the RFI and the disbursements under the RCF to 100 percent of quota in 2020.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper focuses on the Kyrgyz Republic’s Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument and Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility. The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has hit the Kyrgyz economy very hard and increased an already urgent balance of payments need. All sectors are being severely affected while measures are being taken to stop the spread of the virus. The IMF emergency support addresses the urgent balance of payments need, shores up confidence, and catalyzes donor support. In order to ensure that the financing provided is efficiently spent on addressing the crisis, the authorities have committed to strengthen procurement rules. The health care contingency plan and the initial package of economic measures already adopted by the authorities to provide health and economic relief are welcome, as is the second, larger, package of measures under preparation. In their attached letter of intent, the authorities remain committed to temporarily loosening macroeconomic and financial policies to finance health and economic relief and support a recovery. They have also made additional commitments to strengthen procurement rules, including steps to enhance transparency, to help ensure that financing received is efficiently spent on addressing the crisis.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses Kyrgyz Republic’s Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument and Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility. The COVID-19 pandemic has been hitting the Kyrgyz economy very hard and created an urgent balance of payments need. All sectors are being impacted with extreme severity as measures are being taken to stop the spread of the virus. Given the unprecedented high level of uncertainty, IMF emergency support under the Rapid Financing Instrument and the Rapid Credit Facility helps provide a backstop and increase buffers and shore up confidence. It also helps to preserve fiscal space for essential COVID- 19-related health expenditure and catalyze donor support. Banks’ capital and liquidity buffers need to be used to absorb credit losses and the liquidity squeeze. Once these buffers are exhausted, the central bank needs to show flexibility on the timing of bringing capital and liquidity above the minimum required, considering the length of the crisis. Expeditious donor support is needed to close the remaining balance of payments gap and ease the adjustment burden.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses Kyrgyz Republic’s Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument and Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility. The COVID-19 pandemic has been hitting the Kyrgyz economy very hard and created an urgent balance of payments need. All sectors are being impacted with extreme severity as measures are being taken to stop the spread of the virus. Given the unprecedented high level of uncertainty, IMF emergency support under the Rapid Financing Instrument and the Rapid Credit Facility helps provide a backstop and increase buffers and shore up confidence. It also helps to preserve fiscal space for essential COVID- 19-related health expenditure and catalyze donor support. Banks’ capital and liquidity buffers need to be used to absorb credit losses and the liquidity squeeze. Once these buffers are exhausted, the central bank needs to show flexibility on the timing of bringing capital and liquidity above the minimum required, considering the length of the crisis. Expeditious donor support is needed to close the remaining balance of payments gap and ease the adjustment burden.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The economy is growing steadily, benefiting from a benign regional environment, particularly in Russia, the source of most remittances and non-gold export receipts. Low inflation, lower fiscal deficits, and a stable banking sector point to the success of stabilization policies implemented by the government and National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (NBKR, the central bank) under eight successive Fund-supported programs. However, the economy remains vulnerable to external shocks because of the high level of remittances (29 percent of GDP), the concentration of exports on gold (37 percent of exports of goods), the level and composition of the public debt (56 percent of GDP, 4/5 of which is denominated in foreign currency), and the level of the current account deficit (8.7 percent of GDP). In addition, economic growth has been insufficient to significantly raise living standards and continue to reduce poverty.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The economy is growing steadily, benefiting from a benign regional environment, particularly in Russia, the source of most remittances and non-gold export receipts. Low inflation, lower fiscal deficits, and a stable banking sector point to the success of stabilization policies implemented by the government and National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (NBKR, the central bank) under eight successive Fund-supported programs. However, the economy remains vulnerable to external shocks because of the high level of remittances (29 percent of GDP), the concentration of exports on gold (37 percent of exports of goods), the level and composition of the public debt (56 percent of GDP, 4/5 of which is denominated in foreign currency), and the level of the current account deficit (8.7 percent of GDP). In addition, economic growth has been insufficient to significantly raise living standards and continue to reduce poverty.