Middle East and Central Asia > Kyrgyz Republic

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  • Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions x
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Vitor Gaspar
,
Mr. Paolo Mauro
, and
Mr. Tigran Poghosyan
How can a society’s well-being be measured to include not only average incomes but also their distribution? How can the effects of policies be assessed by considering both equity and efficiency? This primer outlines the seminal contributions of influential economists of the past, including Arthur Okun, who developed a simple method to elicit people’s preferences regarding redistribution, and Anthony Atkinson, who showed how equity and efficiency can be measured simultaneously and summarized in a single, intuitive index expressed in monetary units (such as dollars). These methods are applied to recent data to gauge how countries fare when both mean incomes and their distribution are considered together, and to a hypothetical tax-and-transfer scheme assessed through a general equilibrium model for household-level data.
Mr. Norbert Funke
,
Asel Isakova
, and
Maksym Ivanyna
Using data from the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report as an example, this paper compares structural indicators for 25 countries in Emerging Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia with a generic country with similar charactersitics that is 40 percent richer as well as a country with the average EU income. This comparison suggests that improvements will be particularly crucial in the areas of institutions, financial market development, infrastructure, goods and labor market efficiency and areas related to innovation. For the generally more ambitious goal of reaching average EU income, the reform needs are correspondingly larger. The methodology focuses on (approximate) comparisons between countries and does not try to establish the link between structural reforms and growth. While we test for changes in empirical specifications, caveats relate to the quality of structural indicators, possible non-linearities, and reform complementarities. The approach can be applied to other indicators and at a more granular level.
International Monetary Fund
For the net administrative budget, the FY 16–18 medium-term budget (MTB) proposal includes: In FY 16, an unchanged budget envelope in real terms, for the fourth year in a row. To accommodate new and ongoing strategic priorities of the Fund within a flat envelope, efforts to reallocate resources away from lower-priority activities and achieve efficiency gains were stepped up both at the departmental level and across the institution. Savings measures implying a reallocation of resources of close to 5 percent of the net administrative budget were identified through this process. The bulk of these savings would be used to help meet the new priorities highlighted in the Global Policy Agenda and in Management’s Key Goals, while preserving room at the departmental level to further reduce work pressures, phase in the new streamlining measures and, more generally, cope with business uncertainties and unanticipated demands. This robust prioritization effort implies difficult trade-offs and the willingness to cut lower-priority activities in order to create space for new initiatives. For FY 17–18, as a baseline assumption, a flat real budget envelope as well. Against the backdrop of a robust income position, the Fund’s medium-term budget formulation is guided primarily by considerations of prudence and credibility. The medium-term spending path will depend on new demands placed on the institution, and the scope for further reprioritization, and will be reassessed in the context of the FY 17–19 budget.
Mr. Montfort Mlachila
,
Rene Tapsoba
, and
Mr. Sampawende J Tapsoba
This paper proposes a new quality of growth index (QGI) for developing countries. The index encompasses both the intrinsic nature and social dimensions of growth, and is computed for over 90 countries for the period 1990-2011. The approach is premised on the fact that not all growth is created equal in terms of social outcomes, and that it does matter how one reaches from one level of income to another for various theoretical and empirical reasons. The paper finds that the quality of growth has been improving in the vast majority of developing countries over the past two decades, although the rate of convergence is relatively slow. At the same time, there are considerable cross-country variations across income levels and regions. Finally, emprirical investigations point to the fact that main factors of the quality of growth are political stability, public pro-poor spending, macroeconomic stability, financial development, institutional quality and external factors such as FDI.
International Monetary Fund
This report aims to accomplish three objectives: (a) it provides an update on the status of implementation, impact, and costs of the Heavily Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) Initiative and the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI); (b) it proposes a modification of the reporting of progress under the initiatives, including the discontinuation of the annual status of implementation reports, and the preparation of periodic reports on debt vulnerabilities in low income countries (LICs), including HIPCs; and (c) it proposes a further ring-fencing of the list of countries eligible or potentially eligible for debt relief under the HIPC Initiative based on end-2010 income and indebtedness criteria.
International Monetary Fund
This paper identifies the countries that meet the enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative’s income and indebtedness eligibility criteria based on end-2004 data. It also updates the status of these countries toward qualifying for debt relief and presents cost estimates of debt relief.
Ms. Annette J Kyobe
and
Mr. Stephan Danninger
This paper takes stock of revenue forecasting practices in low-income countries, and provides a comprehensive and condensed account of the revenue forecasting process. Based on a new dataset on 34 low-income countries, it catalogues forecasting practices and procedures from inception until budget submission, focusing primarily on institutional aspects and processes. The paper also synthesizes three key characteristics of forecasting practices, formality, organizational simplicity, and transparency, and empirically explores their determinants. High levels of country corruption are associated with less formal and less transparent forecasts. Past IMF involvement in a country increases the formality of the process, but does not improve public access to information.
Mr. Michael Keen
,
Mr. Alexander D Klemm
, and
Anna Ivanova
Russia dramatically reduced its higher rates of personal income tax (PIT) in 2001 establishing a single marginal rate at the low level of 13 percent. In the following year, real revenue from the PIT actually increased by about 26 percent. This 'flat tax' experience has attracted much attention (and emulation) among policymakers, making it perhaps the most important tax reform of recent years. But it has been little studied. This paper asks whether the strong revenue performance of the PIT was itself a consequence of this reform, using both macro evidence and, in particular, micro-level data on the experiences of individuals and households affected by the reform to varying degrees. It concludes that there is no evidence of a strong supply side effect of the reform. Compliance, however, did improve quite substantially-by about one third according to our estimates-though it remains unclear whether this was due to the parametric reforms or to accompanying changes in enforcement.