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Middle East and Central Asia > Kyrgyz Republic

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  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs: Other x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kyrgyz Republic
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Kyrgyz economy grew strongly in 2023, led by construction and trade, despite the challenging regional environment. Tax revenue mobilization improved, and public debt declined. Headline inflation fell from 14.7 percent in December 2022 to 7.3 percent in December 2023, supported by a marked reduction in food and fuel inflation, but demand pressures have kept core inflation elevated. The official current account deficit has remained significant due to the decline in net remittance inflows, lower gold exports, and unrecorded re-exports. Output is expected to grow at its potential rate of 4 percent in the medium term, inflation decline to mid-single digits, and public debt remain contained. Current favorable macroeconomic conditions present a window of opportunity to strengthen the policy framework and raise growth prospects through structural reforms. The priorities are strengthening governance, including management and privatization of state-owned enterprises, enhancing competition, reforming the electricity sector, and strengthening social safety nets.
Keywords:
staff appraisal; Kyrgyz authorities; policy recommendation; January monetary policy meeting; headline inflation; Debt sustainability analysis; Government finance statistics; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financial Development and Growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Mr. Tigran Poghosyan
This paper presents stylized facts on financial development in the CCA countries relative to their EM and LIC peers and assesses how financial development can boost growth in the CCA. Drawing on IMF’s multidimensional index of financial development, we find that CCA countries have made progress following the independence in early 1990s. However, the progress was uneven across the CCA, resulting in a divergence of financial development over time and mixed performance relative to EM and LIC peers. Financial institutions have progressed the most, while financial markets remain underdevelped in most CCA countries except Kazakhstan. In terms of sub-indicators of financial development, financial access has expanded markedly, while the depth of financial intermediation has remained largely shallow and efficiency of financial intermediation has fluctuated over time. Standard growth regressions suggest that CCA countries with relatively lower level of financial development have scope to boost annual growth rates between 0.5-2.5 percent by reaching the level of financial development of frontier CCA countries.
Keywords:
Caucasus and Central Asia; financial development; output growth; CCA country; financial markets market index; growth regression; LIC peer; growth in the Caucasus; Financial sector development; Stock markets; Financial statistics; Central Asia and the Caucasus; CCA economy; CCA LIC; CCA EM; financial institution index
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Tajikistan: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Reported economic activity has been strong in 2018-19 and inflation has picked up. The monetary framework is being strengthened. The external position has deteriorated. The fiscal deficit has widened as revenues have declined. Reforms to place the loss-making energy sector on a sound financial footing are underway. The authorities’ development strategy relies on large infrastructure projects— Roghun dam and other large SOE-implemented projects — that need sizable external financing. The financial sector is recovering from the 2015-16 crisis, with a decline in nonperforming loans and improved profitability. The authorities are making efforts to strengthen bank supervision and regulation. However, two formerly-systemic banks remain insolvent and further reforms are needed to restore public confidence in banks.
Keywords:
debt vulnerability; medium debt-carrying capacity; bank governance; NBT reform action plan; depositor confidence; A. exchange rate Policy; dynamics equation; debt recording; Exchange rate flexibility; Exchange rates; Global; Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The Kyrgyz economy is highly dependent on remittances and foreign aid and does not have access to international capital markets. Inequality is relatively low, but poverty is widespread. The COVID crisis led to a sharp recession with output contracting by 8.6 percent in 2020, public debt rising by 16.5 percent of GDP to 68 percent, and the som depreciating by 19 percent against the US$. Under the assumption that the global pandemic begins to decisively recede this year, a rebound in growth is expected in 2021–22. However, significant uncertainty surrounds the baseline outlook and the recovery could be delayed if downside risks materialize. In the medium to long term, the main challenge is to create jobs for about 65,000 new jobseekers annually and to reduce labor out-migration. This will require deep structural reforms to transform the economy from a reliance on remittances to more diversified and private sector-led growth that is underpinned by higher investment and exports.
Keywords:
expenditure reallocation; investor confidence; Kyrgyz authorities; staff report projection; gold production; External sector statistics; Debt sustainability analysis; Global; Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument and Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; Informational Annex; and Debt Sustainability Analysis
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses Kyrgyz Republic’s Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument and Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility. The COVID-19 pandemic has been hitting the Kyrgyz economy very hard and created an urgent balance of payments need. All sectors are being impacted with extreme severity as measures are being taken to stop the spread of the virus. Given the unprecedented high level of uncertainty, IMF emergency support under the Rapid Financing Instrument and the Rapid Credit Facility helps provide a backstop and increase buffers and shore up confidence. It also helps to preserve fiscal space for essential COVID- 19-related health expenditure and catalyze donor support. Banks’ capital and liquidity buffers need to be used to absorb credit losses and the liquidity squeeze. Once these buffers are exhausted, the central bank needs to show flexibility on the timing of bringing capital and liquidity above the minimum required, considering the length of the crisis. Expeditious donor support is needed to close the remaining balance of payments gap and ease the adjustment burden.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; IMF support; balance of payments gap; Executive Board discussion; liquidity squeeze; financing gap; Debt sustainability analysis; External sector statistics; Monetary base; Global; Loans
Cover Policy Papers
Safeguards Assessments - 2014 Update
International Monetary Fund
The safeguards policy aims to mitigate the potential risks of misuse of resources, including Fund resources, and misreporting of program monetary data. The policy, introduced in 2000, is an integral part of the Fund’s financing policies and complements other safeguards, such as program design, conditionality, and access limits. Safeguards assessments of central banks of the borrowing member are required for almost all forms of Fund financing, and are followed by a period of monitoring for as long as Fund credit is outstanding.
Keywords:
PP; central bank; assessment; financial statement; oversight mechanism; financing; self-assessment tool; peer central bank; central bank official; audit issue; audit committee oversight; External audit; Auditing; Monetary statistics; Central bank auditing; Internal audit; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Tax Revenue Downturns: Anatomy and Links to Imports
Kun Li
and
Pablo Lopez Murphy
We study historical tax revenue downturn episodes—where tax revenue-to-GDP ratios decline sharply—and explore the link between tax revenues and imports. We document that downturn episodes of at least 1 percentage point of GDP in one year are common. The tax types that account for these episodes are different in advanced, emerging and developing, and oil producing countries. We find that tax revenue downturns and import contractions have a statistically significant link. Finally, we show that changes in imports are a statistically significant determinant of changes in tax revenues even when controlling for changes in the output gap and in the terms of trade.
Keywords:
WP; tax-revenue-to-GDP ratio; ratio; tax revenue downturn; downturn; revenue-to-GDP
Cover IMF Working Papers
Mainstreaming Statistics in the Poverty Reduction Strategy Approach to Provide for More Effective Technical Assistance: Some Experience at the IMF
Mr. Robin D Kibuka
The paper reviews the Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRS) approach and efforts to build institutional statistical capacity to permit evidence-based monitoring of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs). Integrating the PRS approach and statistical development strategies could provide significant synergies in improving the monitoring of the PRSP goals. Mainstreaming the statistical strategies in such development plans should enhance the national priority for statistical reforms and provide a basis for costing such reforms for their incorporation into the medium-term expenditure framework. The paper concludes that such an outcome is likely to facilitate funding for the implementation of these reforms and boost the effectiveness of statistical technical assistance.
Keywords:
WP; information; sc; country; process
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)—Data Module
International Monetary Fund
This Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) provides an assessment of data dissemination practices against the IMF’s General Data Dissemination System (GDDS). It also assesses the data dissemination practices against the IMF’s Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) requirements, focusing on coverage, periodicity, and timeliness. It also provides an assessment of the quality of the national accounts, consumer price index, producer price index, government finance, monetary, and balance-of-payments statistics.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; source data; break; balance of payments; financing government budget expenditure; collection coverage; government finance statistics; NSC publication; authorities of the Kyrgyz Republic; NSC website; producer price index; Balance of payments statistics; Monetary statistics; Government finance statistics; Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kazakhstan: Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)—Data Module
International Monetary Fund
This Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) data module provides a review of Kazakhstan’s data dissemination practices against the IMF’s General Data Dissemination System. The quality of Kazakhstan’s macroeconomic statistics has improved significantly in the last few years. The authorities have established a good track record of implementing recommendations of past technical assistance missions in the area of statistics, and have demonstrated commitment to pursue plans and programs to further improve their statistics.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; Kazakhstan; consumer price index; balance of payments; government statistics; government access; NBK website; government of the Republic of Kazakhstan; government operation; Balance of payments statistics; Monetary statistics; Consumer price indexes; Data collection; Baltics