Middle East and Central Asia > Kyrgyz Republic

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International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

Countries of the Middle East and Central Asia region have been hit by two large and reinforcing shocks, resulting in significantly weaker growth projections in 2020. In addition to the devastating toll on human health, the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in oil prices are causing economic turmoil in the region, with fragile and conflict affected states particularlyhard-hit given already large humanitarian and refugee challenges and weak health infrastructures. The immediate priority for policies is to save lives with needed health spending, regardless of fiscal space, while preserving engines of growth with targeted support to households and hard-hit sectors. In this context, the IMF has been providing emergency assistance to help countries in the region during these challenging times. Further ahead, economic recoveries should be supported with broad fiscal and monetary measures where policy space is available, and by seeking external assistance where space is limited.

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper identifies constraints to economic growth in the Kyrgyz Republic, using the Hausmann-Velasco-Rodrik diagnostic approach. It finds that large infrastructure gaps, weak governance and rule of law, and high cost of finance appear to be the most binding constraints to private investment and growth. Additional critical factors are the quality of education and onerous regulations. There is room to improve both the quality and cost/efficiency of education spending. Although relatively low, labor costs have exceeded productivity growth and there is room to improve labor market efficiency. Despite important investments, the infrastructure gap remains large and the country ranks relatively low on infrastructure quality. Weak governance undermines growth through various channels: investment, human capital, and productivity. Weak institutions increase the cost of doing business and make the appropriation of investment returns less certain, overall reducing investor’s risk appetite to invest. Public debt is on the high side and the composition of spending is tilted toward current spending.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

This issue discusses economic developments in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP), which continue to reflect the diversity of conditions prevailing across the region. Most high-income oil exporters, primarily in the GCC, continue to record steady growth and solid economic and financial fundamentals, albeit with medium-term challenges that need to be addressed. In contrast, other countries—Iraq, Libya, and Syria—are mired in conflicts with not only humanitarian but also economic consequences. And yet other countries, mostly oil importers, are making continued but uneven progress in advancing their economic agendas, often in tandem with political transitions and amidst difficult social conditions. In most of these countries, without extensive economic and structural reforms, economic prospects for the medium term remain insufficient to reduce high unemployment and improve living standards.

International Monetary Fund
This report reviews the Kyrgyz Republic’s economic performance under Fund-supported programs from early 2005 to mid-2010. Two Fund-supported programs are assessed: the March 2005 Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF, which expired in May 2008), and the December 2008 Exogenous Shock Facility (ESF, which expired in June 2010). Earlier Fund-supported programs were discussed in the Kyrgyz Republic’s first Ex Post Assessment (EPA), which was completed in November 2004. The assessment does not cover performance under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF), which was approved by the Executive Board on September 15, 2010.
International Monetary Fund
The paper discusses key findings of the Fourth Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) for the Kyrgyz Republic. Output is rebounding and inflation remains subdued. However, most end-December 2006 and end-March 2007 structural benchmarks have been missed, partly because of political tensions that slowed the legislature. The 2007 program, which targets 6½ percent output growth and 5 percent inflation, caps the fiscal deficit at 3.1 percent of GDP and maintains a prudent monetary policy. The government plans to implement delayed structural measures under the program, and strengthen external debt management.
Mr. Tapio Saavalainen
and
Joy Mylène ten Berge
Quasi-fiscal deficits of public utility companies are common in all member countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). They constitute a significant impediment to efficient resource allocation and endanger macroeconomic stability. This paper presents a simple framework for measuring and monitoring such deficits and highlights their macroeconomic relevance. It reviews the progress under IMF conditionality aimed at correcting these imbalances during 1993-2003. The paper suggests that the extensive conditionality under the IMF-supported programs has yielded only limited progress in reducing the energy sector's financial imbalances. In conclusion, different policy options are discussed in light of the lessons learned.
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper on the Republic of Kazakhstan underlies growth of the non-oil sector, fiscal management of oil wealth, and bank credit growth. The share of tradables in the non-oil sector has declined significantly, both in terms of value added and employment, while many nontradable activities, especially services and construction, have expanded. Kazakhstan can sustain non-oil deficits of more than 5 percent of GDP in the near term without reducing the value of oil wealth. Recent developments in the pattern of bank lending and borrowing have led to increased exposure to the property sector and international financial markets.
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.