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Middle East and Central Asia > Kyrgyz Republic

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Cover Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2024
Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2024
Navigating the Evolving Geoeconomic Landscape
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa and Caucasus and Central Asia regions is projected to strengthen in the near term, but only to the extent that current challenges abate. Ongoing conflicts and oil production cuts are dampening economic performance, and medium-term growth prospects have weakened over the past two decades. Moreover, high uncertainty looms, with key risks including escalating conflicts, increased geoeconomic fragmentation, and commodity price volatility. To boost growth and create jobs—especially for women and youth—reform priorities include strengthening governance, encouraging private sector investment, and advancing financial development.

Keywords:
Middle East; North Africa; Caucasus; Central Asia; Gaza; Sudan; Lebanon; trade patterns; economic growth; reforms; growth prospects; shocks; conflicts; uncertainty; economic performance; growth prospects; risks; oil production cuts; OPEC+; investment; geoeconomic fragmentation; IMF; governance; medium-term; capital deepening; women; youth; employment; commodity price volatility; private sector; financial development; CCA region; CCA economy; CCA country; IMF staff calculation; oil exporter; Total factor productivity; Financial sector development; Oil exports; Inflation; Labor force participation; East Africa; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financial Development and Growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Mr. Tigran Poghosyan
This paper presents stylized facts on financial development in the CCA countries relative to their EM and LIC peers and assesses how financial development can boost growth in the CCA. Drawing on IMF’s multidimensional index of financial development, we find that CCA countries have made progress following the independence in early 1990s. However, the progress was uneven across the CCA, resulting in a divergence of financial development over time and mixed performance relative to EM and LIC peers. Financial institutions have progressed the most, while financial markets remain underdevelped in most CCA countries except Kazakhstan. In terms of sub-indicators of financial development, financial access has expanded markedly, while the depth of financial intermediation has remained largely shallow and efficiency of financial intermediation has fluctuated over time. Standard growth regressions suggest that CCA countries with relatively lower level of financial development have scope to boost annual growth rates between 0.5-2.5 percent by reaching the level of financial development of frontier CCA countries.
Keywords:
Caucasus and Central Asia; financial development; output growth; CCA country; financial markets market index; growth regression; LIC peer; growth in the Caucasus; Financial sector development; Stock markets; Financial statistics; Central Asia and the Caucasus; CCA economy; CCA LIC; CCA EM; financial institution index
Cover Departmental Papers
Macroprudential Policies to Enhance Financial Stability in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Padamja Khandelwal
,
Ezequiel Cabezon
,
Mr. Sanan Mirzayev
, and
Rayah Al-Farah
Limited economic diversification has made the economies of the Caucasus and Central Asia particularly vulnerable to external shocks. The economies in the region are heavily reliant on oil and mining exports as well as remittances. In some countries, tourism and capital flows also play a prominent role in aggregate economic activity.
Keywords:
Financial risks; financial supervision and regulation; macroprudential policy; credit cycles; CCA country; CCA economy; CCA contribution; economies of the Caucasus and Central Asia; credit downturn; banking sector crisis; credit cycle analysis methodology; Macroprudential policy; Credit; Credit gaps; Countercyclical capital buffers; Macroprudential policy instruments; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover Departmental Papers
Managing Financial Sector Risks from the COVID-19 Crisis in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru
and
Klakow Akepanidtaworn
The COVID-19 crisis raises the risk of renewed financial sector pressures in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region in the period ahead. Bank distress and its economic and fiscal fallout have been recurring features of many CCA countries, as seen after the global financial crisis and the 2014–15 oil price shock. Strong policy responses have delayed the full impact of the COVID crisis so far, but financial sector risks will increase once public support is phased out. If these risks are not preemptively addressed, banks’ ability to lend during the recovery phase could be impaired and there may be a need for costly public interventions, as in the past.
Keywords:
Financial risks; stress tests; financial supervision and regulation; CCA country; CCA banking systems; FX risk; CCA bank's capital adequacy ratios; FX-induced credit risk; Financial sector risk; Commercial banks; Credit risk; Nonperforming loans; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Tajikistan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
Tajik banking sector; sample estimation; Tajik rail road; SOE Sector; B. tax revenue performance; Tajik cement; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; Tajik telecom; Fiscal risks; Commercial banks; Contingent liabilities; Nonperforming loans; Central Asia
Cover Policy Papers
Reform of the Policy on Public Debt Limits in IMF-Supported Programs
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, &amp
and
Review Department
This paper evaluates the IMF’s policy on the use of quantitative limits on public debt in IMF-supported programs (the “debt limits policy”) and proposes a number of modifications. The review is taking place at a time when many countries are experiencing heightened debt vulnerabilities or actual debt distress, aggravated by the COVID-19 shock, and occurring against the backdrop of a changing credit landscape in which concessional finance is scarcer relative to countries’ investment needs.
Keywords:
PP; debt vulnerability; financing arrangement; debt limits policy; debt conditionality; heightened debt vulnerability; fund staff; low income countries; Debt limits; Government debt management; Debt sustainability; Concessional external borrowing; Global; Africa
Cover Policy Papers
Reform of the Policy on Public Debt Limits in IMF-Supported Programs
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, &amp
and
Review Department
This paper evaluates the IMF’s policy on the use of quantitative limits on public debt in IMF-supported programs (the “debt limits policy”) and proposes a number of modifications. The review is taking place at a time when many countries are experiencing heightened debt vulnerabilities or actual debt distress, aggravated by the COVID-19 shock, and occurring against the backdrop of a changing credit landscape in which concessional finance is scarcer relative to countries’ investment needs.
Keywords:
PP; debt vulnerability; financing arrangement; debt limits policy; debt conditionality; heightened debt vulnerability
Cover IMF Working Papers
Unveiling the Effects of Foreign Exchange Interventions: Evidence from the Kyrgyz Republic
Mr. Tigran Poghosyan
This paper analyzes determinants and consequences of FX interventions in the Kyrgyz Republic. Most of the literature on the topic focuses on advanced and emerging economies and this paper provides new evidence from a low-income country. We find that FX interventions take place in response to movements in the exchange rate and its volatility. There is also evidence of “leaning against the wind”, which is more pronounced for relatively larger FX sales and purchases. The “leaning against the wind” is asymmetric toward FX sales and largely reflects leaning against depreciation of domestic currency. We document a varying degree of de-facto exchange rate stability despite the de-jure floating exchange rate regime. During most of the sample, the exchange rate management index was relatively low in line with the floating exchange rate regime, with the exception of the period from 2018 Q4 until the COVID-19 shock, during which the exchange rate management index was relatively high.
Keywords:
foreign exchange interventions; Kyrgyz Republic; WP; FX intervention; FX sale; management index; FX purchase; exchange rate change; exchange rates; Exchange rate adjustments; Currency markets; Exchange rate indexes; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Middle East and Central Asia
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Middle East and Central Asia
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

Countries in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) region and those in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) responded to the COVID-19 pandemic with swift and stringent measures to mitigate its spread and impact but continue to face an uncertain and difficult environment. Oil exporters were particularly hard hit by a “double-whammy” of the economic impact of lockdowns and the resulting sharp decline in oil demand and prices. Containing the health crisis, cushioning income losses, and expanding social spending remain immediate priorities. However, governments must also begin to lay the groundwork for recovery and rebuilding stronger, including by addressing legacies from the crisis and strengthening inclusion.

Keywords:
public health; reopening; rebuilding; oil revenue; OPEC+; REO; oil exporter; MCD country; oil importer; IMF staff calculation; MCD firm; MCD region
Cover IMF Working Papers
Macroprudential Policies, Economic Growth, and Banking Crises
Mohamed Belkhir
,
Samy Ben Naceur
,
Bertrand Candelon
, and
Jean-Charles Wijnandts
Using a sample that covers more than 100 countries over the 2000-2017 period, we assess the impact of macroprudential policies on financial stability. In particular, we examine whether the activation of macroprudential policies is conducive to a lower incidence of systemic banking crises. Our empirical setup is designed to account for the potential direct and indirect effects that macroprudential policies can have on banking crises. We find that while macro-prudential policies exert a direct stabilizing effect, they also have an indirect destabilizing effect, which works through the depressing of economic growth. A Generalized Impulse Response Function analysis of a dynamic system composed of the probability of a banking crisis and economic growth reveals, however, that macroprudential policies have a positive net effect on financial stability (lower likelihood of systemic banking crises).
Keywords:
WP; policy; policy tightening; Macroprudential Policies; Banking crises; Economic Growth; prudential policy; macroprudential policy; crisis probability; macropru-dential policy; crisis index; tools lead; countercyclical policy tool; banking crisis database; policy instrument; policy tool; macropudential policy; Macroprudential policy; Systemic crises; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Global; aggregate mpi